Securities Times reporter Jiang Dan
In the first quarter, the effect of fiscal policy deployment in advance to stabilize growth appeared.
With the dynamic development of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the more complex international situation, the downward pressure on China's economy has further increased.
In the second quarter, how can the fiscal policy be further exerted and effective, and how much space is there?
Is it necessary to issue special treasury bonds to further stabilize growth?
What other financial support do SMEs need?
Around these issues, a reporter from Securities Times interviewed Zhang Deyong, a researcher at the Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Zhang Deyong believes that the economic growth rate in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and the fiscal policy has made an important contribution to stabilizing growth.
In the second quarter, infrastructure investment will continue to exert its strength. At present, the possibility of launching special national debt is gradually increasing. At present, a plan to launch special national debt can be planned as an alternative for fiscal policy to stabilize growth.
It should be pointed out that from the perspective of the central and local revenue and expenditure patterns, local financial resources are relatively weak, with little room for maneuver and high expenditure pressure. Especially under the new downward pressure on the economy, the sustainability of local finance is worthy of attention.
investment into
maintain economical operation stabilizer
Securities Times reporter: How do you evaluate the effect of fiscal policy on stabilizing growth?
Zhang Deyong: Last year's Central Economic Work Conference proposed that "proactive fiscal policy should improve efficiency", and this year's government work report has deployed active fiscal policies in terms of expanding expenditure scale, optimizing expenditure structure, and implementing a new combined tax and fee support policy. specific content.
Fiscal policy has exerted efforts to stabilize growth, and the effect of the policy is showing.
In the first quarter of this year, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.
Under the multiple challenges brought about by the more complex and severe international environment and the frequent outbreak of domestic epidemics, the economic growth rate in the first quarter exceeded expectations, the economy continued to recover and developed, and the economy was running smoothly.
Of course, if we dynamically evaluate the effect of fiscal policy on stabilizing growth, further observation is needed. In the near future, we can pay attention to the economic performance in the second quarter, and effective epidemic prevention and control is an important variable.
Securities Times reporter: What factors do you think the economic growth rate in the first quarter exceeded expectations?
Zhang Deyong: It is mainly based on the judgment of the situation at home and abroad.
From a domestic point of view, this round of epidemic has a wide range of points and strong contagion, and economic activities in many regions have been forced to press the "pause button"; from a foreign point of view, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused turbulence in the international political and economic situation.
Some unexpected factors in the changes in domestic and foreign situations exceeded expectations, which will inevitably impact my country's economic operation. The growth rate of some major indicators has slowed down, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased.
Under this circumstance, the economic growth rate in the first quarter reached 4.8%, which can be considered as exceeding expectations.
Securities Times reporter: To evaluate the effect of fiscal policy on stabilizing growth, we can look at the economic performance in the second quarter. Does this mean that the driving role of infrastructure investment will continue to be exerted in the second quarter?
Zhang Deyong: As consumption continues to weaken due to the epidemic, investment has become an important support for stable growth.
Infrastructure investment will continue to make efforts, such as investment in transportation, water conservancy, energy, high-tech and other fields, as well as investment in social and people's livelihood shortcomings. While maintaining steady growth, it will also play a role in optimizing the supply structure, ensuring and improving people's livelihood. Actively combine the expansion of domestic demand with structural adjustment.
Investment becomes a stabilizer to keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.
step up fiscal policy
Steady growth
Securities Times reporter: Focusing on stabilizing the macroeconomic market, what other tools and space are there for fiscal policy?
Zhang Deyong: Focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market. At present, the complex, severe and changeable international environment represented by the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict and the multiple and widespread domestic epidemics have a greater impact.
Fiscal policy includes two categories: revenue policy and expenditure policy. Increasing fiscal policy to stabilize growth basically focuses on the two tools of revenue and expenditure.
In terms of expenditure, the deficit rate this year is set at around 2.8%, which is lower than last year. It should be said that there is still room for expansion.
While expanding the scale of expenditures, the structure of expenditures should be further optimized, key expenditures should be guaranteed, general expenditures should be strictly controlled, and fiscal funds should be put to good use.
From the perspective of income, we can consider expanding the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction, especially the expansion of tax reduction and fee reduction policies for manufacturing, small and micro enterprises, and individual industrial and commercial households, so as to help market players tide over difficulties.
It should be pointed out that increasing fiscal policy to stabilize growth requires an organic combination of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical macro-control, depending on the evolution of the international situation and the development of the domestic epidemic, to avoid excessive force, and prevent the occurrence of "flooding" due to excessive stimulus. Phenomenon.
Securities Times reporter: Do you think there is room for the deficit rate to expand?
Zhang Deyong: At present, it seems unlikely.
Unless the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase and the economic growth rate continues to decline, if so, fiscal policy needs to be further strengthened to stabilize growth.
In addition, the policy of reducing taxes and fees can make a fuss about increasing the range of reductions and exemptions and expanding the scope of application.
Whether to expand the scale of tax cuts and fee reductions on the existing basis depends on the economic performance and financial affordability.
Can be planned to launch
Special national debt plan
Securities Times reporter: After the release of the data for the first quarter, some experts and market participants believe that the possibility of launching special government bonds is gradually increasing. What do you think?
Zhang Deyong: Although the economic operation was generally stable in the first quarter of this year, the impact of the international situation and the impact of the domestic epidemic continued to ferment. The possibility of issuing special national debt is gradually increasing, which will help the fiscal policy to be more active and promising, and help the economy recover and recover Rhythm.
Of course, as a policy tool for fiscal policy, as mentioned above, it depends on the evolution of the international situation and the domestic epidemic, and comprehensive research and judgment of domestic and foreign situations should be strengthened.
If the international situation continues to deteriorate and domestic epidemics continue to occur frequently, the issuance of special national debt is an important consideration.
In this sense, we can currently plan to launch a special national debt plan as an alternative to fiscal policy to stabilize growth.
Securities Times reporter: What do you think of the fiscal impact of the issuance of special treasury bonds?
Zhang Deyong: This depends on three aspects.
First, it depends on the institutional arrangement of the issuance, secondly on the scale of the issuance, and thirdly on the economic operation.
In 2020, my country will issue special anti-epidemic treasury bonds, and all the interest will be borne by the central treasury, and local governments do not need to bear the interest. Of the 1 trillion yuan of principal, 300 billion yuan will be repaid by the central government, and the local government will be responsible for 700 billion yuan.
Such institutional arrangements will help reduce the pressure on local governments to repay their capital.
The issuance scale should be comprehensively determined according to the financial situation and economic operation.
From the perspective of the central and local revenue and expenditure patterns, local financial resources are relatively weak, there is little room for manoeuvre, and expenditure pressures are high. Especially under the new downward pressure on the economy, the sustainability of local finance is worthy of attention.
Therefore, if special treasury bonds are issued, and the central government and local governments share the principal of treasury bonds as in 2020, while making efforts to stabilize growth, careful institutional arrangements should be made to focus on the financial situation of local governments, so that the actual debt capacity of local governments can be improved. It should roughly match its financial situation and avoid affecting the sustainability of local finance as much as possible.
Securities Times reporter: Can you share your views in terms of issuance scale and issuance method?
Zhang Deyong: In 2020, 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic government bonds will be issued. This figure can be used as a reference.
It should be pointed out that the current downward pressure on the economy is largely due to the epidemic. The lack of aggregate demand is not caused by insufficient investment demand, but because the epidemic has suppressed consumption.
Therefore, it is necessary to coordinate the work of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, especially to prevent and control the epidemic scientifically and accurately, implement dynamic clearing and unswerving, quickly control the epidemic, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on the economy as much as possible. Create favorable conditions for stable growth to play its due effect.