(Economic Watch) Can the price of gold create history in the $2,000 offensive and defensive battle?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, March 11 (Reporter Liu Yuying) This week, the international gold price once exceeded 2,000 US dollars per ounce, just one step away from the historical high.

Against the background of global inflation, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the decline in economic growth expectations, the trend of gold prices may come to a historical juncture.

　　On March 7, the war between Russia and Ukraine escalated again, which made the risk aversion high, pushing the gold futures price to break through the $2,000 per ounce mark on Monday, just one step away from the all-time high of $2,075 per ounce.

Subsequently, the price of gold entered a high and volatile period, with the price of gold in New York closing at $1,997.88 an ounce on Thursday.

　　Risk aversion prompted an influx of funds.

According to data released by the World Gold Council, in February, the net inflow of global gold ETFs was 35.3 tons (about 2.1 billion US dollars, and the asset management scale increased by 1.0%).

　　In the Chinese market, the price of gold has exceeded 500 yuan per gram.

On March 11, the price of Caibai gold reached 516 yuan per gram.

The price soared, igniting people's enthusiasm to buy gold jewelry and invest in gold.

　　Chen Xiaohui, a senior gold investment analyst at the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center, said that the epidemic in 2020 has led to the excessive release of global liquidity, and the price of gold has reached as high as $2,075 per ounce, but the stay is short.

This time, the price of gold came to US$2,070 per ounce, and the rise and fall were as large as in 2020. At this time, the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out again, and the long and short sides launched offensive and defensive around US$2,000 per ounce.

　　Talking about the reasons for the rise in the price of gold, the World Gold Council believes that the main drivers of the net inflow of global gold ETFs are the high global inflation and the surge in geopolitical risks, which have prompted the price of gold to rise significantly.

　　At present, the high prices of commodities, oil and grain have pushed up inflation.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th showed that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% month-on-month in February and 7.9% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year increase since January 1982.

　　Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, believes that gold has both the characteristics of hedging and anti-inflation. Historically, the VIX volatility index (panic index) has surged or the price of gold has tended to rise during periods of high inflation, and real interest rates also reflect these two factors. class features.

After the financial crisis, the negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates was further strengthened.

In addition, in the short term, the rise in risk aversion and economic policy uncertainty under the Russia-Ukraine conflict is conducive to the rise of gold prices.

　　So, will gold prices set new all-time highs in the future?

　　Chen Xiaohui said that in 2020, the price of gold once reached US$2,075 per ounce, and in 2022, the price of gold once again reached above US$2,000 per ounce.

Similar to this, around 2011, the price of gold hit $1,000 twice, and stood at $1,000 for the third time. Since then, gold has entered a ten-year bull market, with prices fluctuating between $1,000 and $2,000 per ounce.

And now it may be time for the price of gold to hit $2,000 an ounce. Once it breaks through, it may enter the range of $2,000 to $3,000.

He believes that it is only a matter of time before the price of gold hits an all-time high.

　　Goldman Sachs pointed out in a latest report that investors, consumers and even central banks are in a time of global geopolitical uncertainty, and demand for gold has increased. Therefore, Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target for the next 3 to 12 months, which is expected to be half a year. The domestic gold price will reach $2,500 an ounce.

　　However, at present, the volatility of gold prices has become larger, and investors should still pay attention to risks and be cautious in chasing higher prices.

He Qiang, a professor at the School of Finance of the Central University of Finance and Economics, reminded that investing in gold now requires consideration of whether the current high demand for safe-haven in the market exists in the short term or in the long term.

(over)