(Economic Observation) Global Institutions Looking Forward to 2022: Will Recovery Come?
China News Service, Beijing, January 1st. Title: Global Institutions Looking Forward to 2022: Will Recovery Come?
China News Agency reporter Wang Enbo
Say goodbye to the ups and downs of 2021, the world continues to usher in 2022 amidst uncertainty.
In the new year, can the global economy recover from the impact of the epidemic?
How can China's economy make progress while maintaining stability?
Major organizations from all over the world give their judgments.
In 2021, the world economy continues to rebound, but it is hard to say a real recovery.
In 2022, all parties remain cautiously optimistic about the prospects for recovery.
On December 24, 2021, local time, people passed a Christmas tree arranged on Wall Street in New York, USA.
In the new round of new crown pneumonia epidemic, the local area ushered in Christmas Eve.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Liao Pan
Deloitte pointed out that starting from the third quarter of 2021, the global economic recovery will weaken.
In many regions, the new crown epidemic has repeatedly caused an increase in the number of infected people, chaotic supply chains, and rising energy prices. Various reasons have combined to cause the global economic performance in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 to be lower than expected, and there are huge uncertainties in the future economic prospects.
The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center judged that with the acceleration of vaccination and the launch of oral specific drugs, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is expected to be significantly weakened, but the recovery still faces some major risks: first, emerging economies have a tendency to passively raise interest rates; second, The withdrawal of the US quantitative easing policy will have an impact on the financial markets of emerging economies; thirdly, due to differences in the anti-epidemic process and vaccine popularity among countries around the world, the uncertainty of the epidemic in some regions still exists.
The Swiss Re Institute of Swiss Re also believes that the world economy is rebounding from the impact of the epidemic, and the future outlook is good.
However, the growth peak has passed, and this round of growth is a cyclical rather than a structural recovery.
Swiss Re Research Institute judged that inflation is the primary macro risk facing the world economy. Supply-side factors restricting growth will also push up inflation. It is expected that inflation will remain high for a period of time.
At the same time, inflationary pressures are gradually being transmitted to areas where rents and wages change more slowly, but the trend is more difficult to reverse.
The aforementioned unfavorable factors will put pressure on the outlook for global economic growth in 2022 and 2023.
In a complex external environment, facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and expected weakening, China's economy will focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market this year and maintaining economic operations within a reasonable range.
In this process, which policy tools are worth looking forward to?
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that stabilizing growth requires the formation of a "several promotion" pattern, and policies in fiscal, taxation, currency, finance, industry, industry, commerce, and employment must form a joint force to stabilize the economic fundamentals.
This is not only the need to achieve a series of economic and social development goals such as the total economic output in 2035, but also the guarantee for the realization of short-term goals such as new employment, residents' income, and balance of international payments.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, predicts that proactive fiscal policies will become the main support for economic growth.
Specific investment directions may include: new tax and fee reduction measures to support small and medium-sized enterprises and weak links; provide direct financial support or loan guarantees for new growth drivers such as manufacturing upgrades, technological innovation, and green development; further increase the amount of special debt and encourage The quota is issued in advance, and infrastructure projects are carried out in advance.
Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, believes that in the foreseeable future, the Chinese government will pay more attention to long-term economic and social development goals rather than introducing more stimulus policies.
Promoting independent technological innovation, advancing the goal of decarbonization, and achieving common prosperity are at the forefront of China's long-term economic work schedule.
Considering the many challenges faced in achieving the goals, the government will emphasize the design of cross-cycle policies, strengthen the autonomy of macro policies, and focus on assessing the overall situation from a medium and long-term perspective.
In this context, which industries in China will usher in favorable policies in 2022 and become more "absorbed"?
Political commissar Lu, chief economist of Industrial Bank, believes that the "dual carbon" target will also increase investment demand. The energy investment it brings is highly certain and the growth rate is high, which can effectively promote the recovery of upstream electrical machinery, special equipment and other equipment manufacturing industries. .
In addition, new infrastructure is still in an important construction stage in 2022, and investment in 5G base stations, data centers, Internet of Things, and Internet of Vehicles is expected to continue to rise, which is also expected to drive the growth of investment in computer electronics, new energy vehicles and other related industrial chains.
Xiong Yi, chief economist of Deutsche Bank China, predicts that the renewable energy industry will continue to be supported by favorable policies and has a good long-term development prospect.
In addition, the marketization of electricity prices and power reforms can create new business opportunities for the power supply industry. Strengthening infrastructure investment will benefit construction companies and major suppliers. Innovative high-end manufacturing companies will benefit from the government's policies to promote innovation.
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