Kuang Xianming

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, in October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous month. It rebounded for two consecutive months. my country's consumption recovery continued to show resilience.

　　Consumption is an important driving force for economic growth.

In building a new development pattern, it is necessary to better play the fundamental and leading role of consumption.

Generally speaking, consumption is relatively stable, but large fluctuations will occur under the impact of major factors, and a gap in consumption growth will be formed.

Filling up the gap in consumption growth will become an important policy guide for a certain period of time.

　　The outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020 has greatly affected consumption. The total retail sales of consumer goods and the per capita consumption expenditure of residents have both declined.

As my country took the lead in controlling the epidemic, consumption began to gradually recover.

From the perspective of per capita consumption expenditure of residents, in the first three quarters of 2021, the national per capita consumption expenditure of residents reached 17,275 yuan, surpassing 15,464 yuan in the first three quarters of 2019, and more than 14,923 yuan in the first three quarters of 2020.

It should be said that after the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods hit a low of 2.5% in August, all parties are highly concerned about whether China's consumption can continue to recover.

The total retail sales of consumer goods have rebounded for two consecutive months, indicating that the foundation and resilience of my country's consumption recovery are still relatively strong.

With the gradual digestion of the impact of the epidemic and the resolution of supply shortages, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods is still likely to further increase. The total retail sales of consumer goods for the whole year of 2021 is expected to reach 44 trillion yuan.

　　At the same time, we should also objectively see that although consumption is recovering, the recovery progress is still lower than expected, and the recovery of some contact service consumption is still lagging behind.

In other words, there is a certain growth gap between the actual consumption growth rate and the potential consumption growth rate.

In the first three quarters of 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by an average of 3.9% in two years, but there were three “below”: First, the growth rate of consumption was lower than the growth rate before the epidemic, and the growth rate of consumption before the epidemic remained at 8% to 9% Second, the consumption growth rate is lower than the economic growth rate. In the first three quarters of 2021, the two-year average GDP growth rate is 5.2%; third, the consumption growth rate is lower than the growth rate of residents’ income. The average growth rate of per capita disposable income in two years was 7.1%.

Therefore, although consumption is recovering, there is still a certain growth gap that urgently needs to be filled.

　　It should be said that as a large developing country with a population of 1.4 billion, my country has huge consumption potential.

To fill the gap in consumption growth, the key is to have pragmatic policies and measures.

First, we must still put epidemic prevention and control in an important position.

The impact of the epidemic on contact service consumption is an important reason for the gap in consumption growth.

To coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, it is necessary to further refine policy measures, increase precision prevention and control of the epidemic, and reduce the impact of the spread of the epidemic on service-oriented consumption.

The second is to break through the car consumption congestion, and make great efforts to solve the shortage of key core parts of the car.

The third is to increase the release of new types of consumption.

While supporting the release of traditional consumption, it should adapt to new demands and new business trends, encourage the development of new types of consumption such as digital consumption, and form a trend of rapid development of new types of consumption.

　　[The author is the director of the Economic Research Institute of China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute]