China News Service, Feb. 25 (Ge Cheng) Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of international crude oil futures continued to fluctuate, breaking the $100 per barrel mark many times.
On February 25, Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures in London reached as high as $102.23 per barrel, and fell to $96.57 per barrel as of press time.
At the same time, European natural gas futures prices also continued to fluctuate.
European natural gas benchmark futures rose for the fourth day in a row.
On February 24, the price of Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose more than 60% in late trading, and closed up 33.3%.
On February 25, however, Dutch natural gas futures were down 25% at press time.
Why did the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have such a big impact on the crude oil and natural gas markets?
According to Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov, Russian oil production will reach 517 million tons in 2021.
According to the statistics of the US "Oil and Gas Journal" (OGJ), the global oil production in 2021 will be about 4.423 billion tons, and Russia's crude oil production will account for about 11.69% of the world's total.
In addition, according to BP data, in 2021, Russia's natural gas production will be about 639 billion cubic meters, and the global natural gas production will be about 3.854 trillion cubic meters, and Russia's natural gas production will account for about 16.58% of the world's total.
Zhou Dadi, executive vice chairman of the China Energy Research Association and former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told Zhongxin Finance that at present, changes in the international situation have led to changes in oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts have boosted oil prices.
In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, demand for transportation oil has fallen due to production disruptions.
At the same time, the winter has passed, and the supply pressure of crude oil and natural gas dominated by heating demand continues to decrease.
Therefore, he believes that the current oil and natural gas prices are mainly affected by the situation and do not reflect changes in actual supply and demand, and fluctuations are difficult to sustain.
Zhou Da said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to increased uncertainty in Russia's oil and natural gas exports to Europe, affecting market futures prices.
However, in the progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations, after the agreement is reached, Iran will increase its oil production capacity, and the actual global oil supply will further increase. In the long run, it is difficult for oil prices to continue to rise.
According to experts, the United States is also a major producer of oil and natural gas. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the relationship between Europe and Russia is tense, and the United States will increase the supply of oil and natural gas to Europe.
However, due to the large gap, it is temporarily difficult for Europe to find an energy supplier to replace Russia in the international market.
On February 21, the Russian Oil and Gas Network quoted statistics released by European Gas Infrastructure that as of February 17, the vacancy rate of underground natural gas storage (UGS) facilities in Europe reached 95.3%.
"Europe is highly dependent on Russian natural gas, with a share of nearly half, and oil's share of nearly a quarter." Zhao Hongtu, an energy expert at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said in an interview with Zhongxin Finance that even with a lot of preparations , but the volume is too large, and neither side of the international market has such a large surplus capacity to make up for it.
"Now Europe can't find a party that can completely replace Russia in terms of energy, although it has been calling for the diversification of energy. If the conflict continues, not only the oil price will rise, but the natural gas shortage problem will definitely intensify." Zhao Hongtu added.
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