Employment is basically stable, people's livelihood continues to improve, structural adjustment is steadily advanced, and quality and efficiency continue to improve
China's economy has great potential for high-quality development
On October 18, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that preliminary calculations showed that the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.2%, which was 0.1 percentage point lower than the average two-year growth rate in the first half of the year.
Among them, the third quarter increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 4.9%.
"In the first three quarters, the national economy has generally maintained a recovery trend." At the press conference of the State Council Information Office on October 18, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said.
How to treat the third quarter GDP growth of 4.9% year-on-year
Since the beginning of this year, domestic and foreign risks and challenges have increased, and the pressure of economic transformation and adjustment has appeared.
In the first three quarters, GDP grew by 9.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected target of more than 6%.
Among them, the third quarter increased by 4.9% year-on-year, which was 3 percentage points lower than the year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter.
How do you view the economic growth rate in the third quarter?
First of all, the economic growth rates in the last quarter were: a decline of 6.8% in the first quarter, a growth of 3.2% in the second quarter, a growth of 4.9% in the third quarter, and a growth of 6.5% in the fourth quarter.
Secondly, the two-year year-on-year growth rate fluctuated little, and China's economic operation remained stable overall.
"In the first quarter, GDP increased by 18.3% year-on-year, in the second quarter GDP increased by 7.9% year-on-year, and in the third quarter GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year. %, 5.5%, 4.9%, the gap between the highest growth rate and the lowest growth rate is 0.6%, which is relatively stable." Xu Xianchun, director of the China Economic and Social Data Research Center of Tsinghua University, analyzed, "The GDP in the first three quarters was 9.8 % Growth rate is still relatively high, laying the foundation for achieving the annual economic growth target."
Third, the economic downturn in the third quarter is a common phenomenon all over the world.
Fu Linghui introduced that due to multiple factors such as repeated global epidemics, rising commodity prices, tight international shipping, labor shortages and shortages of key parts and components, the pace of global economic recovery has slowed overall since the third quarter.
Finally, the decline in economic growth is also affected by periodic and short-term factors.
Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher in the Counselor's Office of the State Council, analyzed that in the third quarter, some areas in the country were affected by the multiple impacts of the epidemic and floods, which belonged to staged disturbance factors and did not indicate that China's economic growth had insufficient endogenous motivation.
"China is the only country among the major global economies that will achieve positive growth under the impact of the epidemic in 2020. Compared with other countries, the base is relatively high. Major international organizations expect China's economy to remain high at around 8% in 2021. The growth rate is not only higher than the global average growth rate, but also higher than the growth rate of major economies. It reflects the international community’s optimistic view of China’s economic growth prospects and also shows that China’s economy has strong resilience and great potential." Fu Linghui said.
The main macro indicators are in a reasonable range, and the development quality and efficiency are improved
Fu Linghui believes that in general, the national economy has maintained a recovery trend.
The economy continues to grow.
Affected by the rising base in the same period last year, as well as the impact of the epidemic and floods, the year-on-year growth rate of the economy in the first three quarters fell from the first half of the year, but the momentum of expansion continued from the previous quarter, and the two-year average growth rate still maintained rapid growth.
Employment is basically stable.
In the first three quarters, 10.45 million new jobs were created in urban areas, completing 95% of the annual target task; the average urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, which was lower than the expected target of 5.5% for the whole year.
Consumer price increases are modest.
The supply of important livelihood products was sufficient, and consumer prices remained stable. In the first three quarters, consumer prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected target of about 3%.
The balance of payments continued to improve.
The import and export surplus of goods trade in the first three quarters expanded by 23.7% year-on-year.
At the end of September, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves was 3,206 billion U.S. dollars, staying above 3 trillion U.S. dollars for five consecutive months.
While the main macro indicators are in a reasonable range, the economic structure has been adjusted and optimized, and the quality of development has been improved.
The industrial structure is continuously optimized.
In the first three quarters, the value added of the manufacturing industry accounted for 27.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the same period last year; the contribution rate of the growth of the service industry to economic growth was 54.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the first half of the year.
The demand structure continues to improve.
In the first three quarters, the final consumption contribution rate was 64.8%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the first half of the year.
The retail sales of sports and entertainment products and cultural office supplies both increased by more than 20% year-on-year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 18.7% year-on-year, and investment in upgraded consumption and high-tech industries grew rapidly.
Corporate profits have grown rapidly.
From January to August, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 49.5% year-on-year, and profits of service enterprises above designated size increased by 35.7%.
"The main macro indicators are in a reasonable range, employment is basically stable, people's livelihood continues to improve, structural adjustment is steadily advanced, and quality and efficiency continue to improve, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual economic and social development goals." Fu Linghui said.
The employment situation is basically stable, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate in the third quarter tends to stabilize with a decline
Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood.
In the first three quarters, the surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns across the country averaged 5.2%, which was lower than the expected target of 5.5% for the whole year.
Among them, the urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 4.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Especially in the third quarter, the overall employment situation has improved. In July, August, and September, the nationwide urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, 5.1%, and 4.9%, respectively, and the trend was steady and declining; 25-59 years old The urban surveyed unemployment rates of the employment subjects were 4.2%, 4.3%, and 4.2%, respectively, and the unemployment rate was relatively low; the unemployment rate of young people and the migrant agricultural population was also falling.
At the end of the third quarter, 183.03 million rural laborers were migrant workers, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and the scale basically returned to the same period before the epidemic.
The employment situation was basically stable in the third quarter, benefiting from the continued economic recovery and the continued effectiveness of the employment priority policy.
It is particularly noteworthy that the recovery and improvement of the service industry is conducive to expanding employment capacity.
According to Fu Linghui's analysis, in September, the service industry production index increased by 5.2% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous month.
In the service industry purchasing manager index, the service industry employee index also increased by 0.5% from the previous month.
In addition, the platform economy and flexible employment development provide workers with more employment options.
Since the beginning of this year, the rapid development of live streaming and online shopping has also led to the increase of employees in related industries.
"But we must also see that the total pressure of employment and structural contradictions still exist, the unemployment rate of some groups is still high, and the shortage of jobs in some coastal areas still exists. It is still necessary to continue to work hard to maintain employment stability." Fu Linghui said. It is necessary to continue to do a good job in the cross-cycle adjustment of macroeconomic policies, promote the stable recovery of the economy, and create good conditions for employment.
Implement the employment priority policy, strengthen employment services for key groups of college students and migrant workers, increase vocational skills training, promote the effective connection of supply and demand in the labor market, and promote a stable and positive employment situation.
The economy continues to recover and the trend towards high-quality development will not change
Although the economic growth rate in the third quarter has been affected by various factors such as the epidemic situation, flood conditions, and rising base numbers, China's economy has strong resilience and vitality.
"In general, the trend of sustained economic recovery and high-quality development will not change, and we have the ability and conditions to complete the expected goals and tasks for economic and social development throughout the year." Fu Linghui said.
From the perspective of consumption, the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation is generally stable. In the first three quarters, the national per capita consumption expenditure increased by 15.8% year-on-year in nominal terms, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.7%, which was faster than that in the first half of the year.
From the perspective of investment, the benefits of industrial enterprises have maintained relatively rapid growth, and policies to support the development of the real economy will continue to be effective, which will help the overall improvement of manufacturing investment.
In the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", a series of major projects have started construction one after another, and the issuance of special government bonds has accelerated, which is also conducive to the growth of infrastructure investment.
From the perspective of import and export, the world economy is recovering in general, China's industrial system is complete, supporting capabilities are strong, enterprises can flexibly adapt to changes in international market demand, and imports and exports are still expected to maintain rapid growth.
"China's industrial system is complete, the epidemic prevention and control situation is good, and other favorable conditions, and it is still attracting foreign importers. Import and export demand in the fourth quarter may still maintain the driving effect of economic growth." Xu Xianchun said.
From the perspective of development potential, with the continuous deepening of the reform of decentralization, management and service, and the steady advancement of supply-side structural reforms, China's innovation and development momentum is good, which has also injected strong impetus into economic development.
The World Intellectual Property Organization report shows that in the 2021 Global Innovation Index, China ranks 12th, an increase of 2 places over the previous year.
In the first three quarters, new products, new technologies and new models have grown rapidly, with great potential for high-quality development.
"China's fiscal strength continues to increase, and there is still a lot of room for monetary policy. The government has accumulated rich experience in regulation and control in long-term practice, and can promptly introduce effective measures in response to changes in the situation to promote stable economic operation." Fu Linghui said.
Our reporter Lu Yanan