China's "shi" character is striving to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development

(Economic Watch) China's "Shi" character is striving to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development

　　China News Service, Beijing, April 30 (Reporter Xia Bin) Facing the complex situation of the century-old changes and the overlapping of the epidemic in the century, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on April 29 proposed to stabilize the economy and strive to achieve a full-year economic social development goals.

　　In this meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the word "real" runs through.

Among them, it is pointed out that it is very important to effectively protect and improve people's livelihood; to stabilize the economy; to implement the policies that have been determined, and to implement policies such as tax rebates, tax reductions and fee reductions; to effectively protect and improve people's livelihood, etc.

　　According to the observation, China once again emphasized that the key to achieving the goal lies in concrete policies, and the current governance is also the word "reality", which ensures the implementation, growth, and resilience.

　　First, the policy must be implemented.

The meeting called for speeding up the implementation of established policies, implementing policies such as tax rebates, tax reductions and fee reductions, and making good use of various monetary policy tools.

"At this stage, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the flow of people, logistics, and capital have all been affected and disturbed. With the gradual control of the epidemic, the policies that have been introduced in the early stage are expected to be implemented and effective." The policy team of the Zhongtai Securities Research Institute Yang Chang, the person in charge, said.

　　From the perspective of fiscal policy, this year China has implemented a new combined tax and fee support policy, emphasizing that all tax rebate funds go directly to enterprises.

The co-chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly pointed out that in terms of tax reduction and fee reduction, the expected target of tax rebates for the whole year has once again risen to 2.5 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), of which 1.5 trillion yuan is residual tax rebates. There have been repeated urges to expedite the return of businesses.

　　From the perspective of monetary policy, we will give full play to the effectiveness of various policy measures that have been determined in the future.

Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst at Cinda Securities, said that recently, regulators have introduced monetary policy measures such as RRR cuts, provision cuts, and the floating ceiling of deposit interest rates.

"Using these tools well, we expect to guide the reduction of LPR quotations next month, thereby effectively reducing the cost of comprehensive social financing."

　　Second, the policy needs to be incremental.

Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, said bluntly that the meeting proposed to speed up the planning of incremental policy tools, which was not mentioned in previous meetings.

　　Lian Ping predicts that under the accelerated implementation of the established policies, the proactive fiscal policy will continue to expand support for stable growth.

In the future, anti-epidemic treasury bonds may be issued again; large-scale consumption subsidies or coupons such as automobiles and home appliances may be issued to speed up consumption recovery; financing guarantees for investment projects such as manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate will be provided to speed up the implementation of projects; Tariffs, speed up export tax rebates, etc.

　　Pang Ming, chief strategy analyst of China Renaissance, told a reporter from China News Agency that in planning incremental policy tools, the next step may be to comprehensively use fiscal policy, monetary policy and industrial policy to work on three aspects.

The first is to increase investment in infrastructure; the second is to open up the breakpoints, blockages, and pain points in China's logistics chain, supply chain, and industrial chain to improve its stability and competitiveness; Help with fixed costs such as housing rent.

　　Finally, policies need to be resilient.

The meeting proposed to grasp the advance and redundancy of the policy under the target orientation.

Lian Ping said that this requires macro policies to show a certain degree of adaptability and resilience, and even in certain unfavorable environments or special circumstances, they can effectively play their due positive role.

In the process of macro policy design and implementation, it is necessary to fully consider the possible and potential impacts of "black swans", "gray rhinos" or similar events.

　　Therefore, Lian Ping suggested that the monetary policy should maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, make arrangements in advance, and meet the market's seasonal demand for funds; use reserve policy tools in a timely manner under different internal and external environments, and adjust to respond in a timely manner.

　　He further said that under the circumstance of tightening overseas monetary policy, China's monetary policy is mainly based on me, taking into account the pressure of capital outflow and the potential risk of RMB depreciation, adjusting the policy in a timely manner, conveying high attention to the market, and adopting market-oriented means to maintain its stability A positive sign of running.

　　Mingming believes that structural tools will balance the advance and redundancy of policies, and structural monetary policy tools represented by re-lending are still the main means to support the real economy. 1 trillion yuan, effectively improving the total amount and structure of credit.

　　Taking the technology innovation re-lending recently established by the People's Bank of China as an example, Liu Shijin, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, said that in the context of the slowdown in economic growth in the face of multiple pressures, the central bank's move will benefit technology companies, especially those with innovation potential. However, the provision of effective support for small and medium-sized enterprises with insufficient funds is also an active attempt by the structural monetary policy to promote technological innovation in the real economy.

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