Where does the potential for economic growth come from - an objective view of the current economic situation (Part 2)
The executive meeting of the State Council held recently pointed out that at present, my country's economic operation has generally remained within a reasonable range, but the complexity and uncertainty of the domestic and foreign environments have increased, and some have exceeded expectations.
Since March, due to the impact of unfavorable factors such as the spread of the domestic epidemic, my country's household consumption, industrial production, logistics and transportation have been affected to a certain extent.
At the same time, the ups and downs of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the surge in global commodity prices, and the rise in overseas inflationary pressures have also brought a greater impact on my country's market players. The industrial chain and supply chain have continued to be under pressure, and the downward pressure on economic development has increased. .
Faced with the impact of changes in domestic and foreign environments, can my country's economy continue to maintain a good momentum of steady progress in the first quarter? What are the favorable factors that will support economic growth in the future, and where will the new economic growth potential come from?
Investment potential remains high
"At present and for a period of time in the future, investment is still an important tool and starting point for counter-cyclical adjustment, and investment growth potential is still large." Wei Qijia, director of the Industrial Economic Research Office of the Forecast Department of the State Information Center, said.
Judging from recent data, in the first two months of this year, my country's fixed asset investment increased by 12.2% year-on-year, 7.3 percentage points higher than the annual growth rate in 2021, and significantly higher than the average growth rate of 3.9% in the previous two years. start.
Among them, the investment in the high-tech field became a bright spot, with a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, and the investment in the social field maintained a high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, reflecting the optimization of the investment structure.
Wei Qijia said that from a global perspective, my country's capital accumulation level will remain at the forefront of the world.
According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, my country's national saving rate will still be as high as 39.8% by 2024, much higher than the world average saving rate of 26.6% in the same period, and also higher than the average level of developing and developed economies.
At the same time, with the advancement of technology, the organic composition of capital is also further improved.
Ren Rongrong, director of the Comprehensive Research Office of the Investment Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that under the triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations, the rapid growth of investment has provided strong support for the smooth operation of the economy. Helping to promote high-quality economic development, "in the medium and long term, my country's investment growth still has great potential space."
Under the major strategies of new urbanization, rural revitalization, and carbon neutralization, the new round of information technology revolution and the acceleration of the aging process all contain large investment potential.
"For example, with the implementation of the carbon peaking action plan, the industrial system including green and efficient ecological agriculture, new energy industry, green transformation of traditional manufacturing, research and development and application of green new technologies, etc., breeds huge investment opportunities. With the advent of the digital age, in order to adapt to the new changes in consumption growth and structural upgrading, the investment demand for infrastructure and application scenarios in new business formats and new models will increase." Ren Rongrong said.
In addition, there is also a large investment space in the field of infrastructure to supplement shortcomings.
By improving the infrastructure network to accurately "make up for shortcomings", increase the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G, data centers, and industrial Internet, and promote the digital transformation of traditional infrastructure such as transportation, energy, and logistics, which will create a good environment for high-quality economic development. "Hard Foundations" and "Soft Environments".
Strengthen the role of consumption "ballast stone"
"Consumption, as an important aspect of expanding domestic demand, will play an increasingly important role in stabilizing the macroeconomic market and promoting high-quality development." Wei Qijia said that although affected by factors such as repeated epidemics, the consumer market is still relatively resilient. Obviously, the expansion of consumption scale and the upgrading of consumption structure have not changed.
From the perspective of consumption demand, among the population of more than 1.4 billion in my country, the middle-income group has exceeded 400 million, and the world's largest middle-income group contains huge demand for consumption upgrades.
As the economy continues to recover, employment expands, residents' income increases, social security improves, and the effect of the policy of expanding domestic demand to boost consumption continues to emerge, the continued recovery of the consumer market will continue.
From the perspective of consumption patterns, the new round of scientific and technological revolution is changing with each passing day, especially with the in-depth development of "Internet +", new products, new business forms and new models based on mobile Internet and Internet of Things are flourishing, which is to transform and upgrade traditional industries and foster economic development. The new kinetic energy provides a favorable opportunity, which will help the continuous release of upgraded consumer demand.
From the perspective of consumption space, the potential of mass consumption expansion and upgrading is huge.
Mass consumption has the characteristics of a wide audience and a large market space.
In recent years, the disposable income of residents has continued to increase, the income structure has continued to improve, the proportion of middle-income residents has increased significantly, the total consumption will continue to expand, and the consumption structure will continue to upgrade, supporting the expansion of mass consumption.
Focusing on the goal of stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand, a series of policies and measures to promote consumption have been launched in various places.
Recently, Chongqing issued the "Several Policies and Measures to Promote the Recovery and Development of Consumption", which proposed 19 measures to promote consumption from four aspects: benefiting the people and benefiting the people, steadily expanding the consumption of key and bulk commodities, carrying out cultural tourism consumption actions, and optimizing the consumption environment.
"The next step is to give full play to the huge potential of domestic demand and ease the pressure of demand contraction as soon as possible. In accordance with the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference and the deployment of this year's "Government Work Report", we must firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and enhance the endogenous driving force for development. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.
Deepening reforms and stabilizing expectations
At present, my country's macroeconomic market remains stable, with sound economic fundamentals, strong resilience and great potential for economic development.
"As long as the economic and social development and epidemic prevention and control are well coordinated, stability is at the forefront, progress is made while stability, and the supply-side structural reform is not lost on time, the pace of high-quality economic development will be more stable," Wei Qijia said.
Effective investment can satisfy demand and at the same time create new demand, which has the dual effect of promoting growth on both the demand side and the supply side.
Ren Rongrong said that under the policy environment of better leveraging the role of government investment and stimulating the vitality of private investment, investment should play a key role in optimizing the supply structure in key areas such as making up for shortcomings, strengths and weaknesses, and benefiting people's livelihood, and at the same time for expanding Consumption creates conditions, promotes the benign interaction between effective investment and consumption upgrading, and fully unleashes the potential of economic growth.
Wei Qijia suggested that on the basis of maintaining the continuity and stability of macro policies, the policy should be more forward-looking and precise, monetary policy should continue to focus on supporting the real economy and promoting employment, and pay more attention to supporting small, medium and micro enterprises and labor-intensive industries to help ease financing. problem.
At the same time, make good use of funds such as local government special bonds to promote key constructions such as major projects and basic livelihood projects, and further consolidate the production and demand of the national economy by smoothing the circulation between different industries.
Zhang Liqun's analysis pointed out that from the perspective of factor supply, my country's existing working-age population is 880 million, and this year's college graduates will exceed 10 million.
From the calculation of factor supply, my country's potential economic growth rate can still remain above 8%.
In the future, we should firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the recovery and development of consumption, and actively expand effective investment.
Experts said that the more difficult it is, the more it is necessary to provide a good business environment for market players, and the more it is necessary to deepen reforms to create a stable, transparent and fair competition market environment.
It is necessary to use more reform measures and innovative methods to promote the expansion of consumption and effective investment, and at the same time, further increase the rescue efforts for enterprises in related industries, so as to deal with the uncertainty of the external environment with stable market expectations.
(Economic Daily reporter Gu Yang)