Allan Lichtman, a professor at the American University and an expert in political history, correctly predicted the results of several presidential elections in the United States, predicted Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 elections. Reported by The New York Times.
In his forecasts, Lichtman relies on the "13 Keys" system, the essence of which is 13 questions, which can only be answered with yes or no. Questions relate to factors such as the economic situation in the country, social unrest, scandals related to candidates, personal charisma of election participants, foreign policy and military successes and failures, participation in the elections of an independent candidate, and a number of others.
According to Likhtman's system, if questions about a candidate from a party that currently controls the White House can be answered negatively six or more times, then he will not be able to win.
“The secret is not to lose sight of the big picture of an official’s strengths and performance. And you don't need to pay any attention to the poll indicators, expert opinions, the daily ups and downs of the election campaign. All this is evaluated by the "keys". The big picture, ”Likhtman explained.
This time, Lichtman said that incumbent President Donald Trump will not be able to be re-elected for a second term. In his opinion, the victory will be won by the candidate from the Democratic Party, Joe Biden.
It should be noted that the coronavirus pandemic played an important role. In particular, two of the 13 "keys" relate to the state of the economy in the near and long term. It was the infection that spread throughout the world that caused a sharp collapse in US GDP and worsened long-term forecasts.
Considering that Trump collected seven negative "keys", then, if there were no pandemic, Likhtman's forecast could be completely different.
In 2016, in an interview with RT, Likhtman said that his forecasting method contradicts the traditional approach, which is based on an analysis of the ups and downs of the election race, opinion polls and expert opinions.
“I look at historical patterns and underlying forces that shape the course of elections. First of all, we are talking about the effectiveness of the work of the party that controls the White House, and not at all about who had a good or bad day of the election campaign, ”he explained.
According to the professor, his model demonstrates that elections are an assessment of the quality of the leadership of the party in power.
“At the heart of my system is this question: will the party that currently controls the White House be able to achieve re-election? In this case, since we have a two-party system, the defeat of the Democrats means the victory of the Republicans. However, this victory does not have to be related to their candidate or the election campaign, ”he said after the 2016 elections.
The events of the pre-election race, like the rhetoric of the candidates, do not in any way affect the result, since the country's population chooses the future leadership, and not the best pre-election campaign, the expert emphasized.
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“If the candidates had followed the historical patterns, they would have approached their election campaigns in a completely different way. They would get rid of all the ads that defame opponents - it still doesn't work. The campaign must be used to lay the foundation for a future government in case of success. In this situation, the winning candidates would be able to better govern the country, which would benefit not only America, but the whole world, as well as themselves - the chances of re-election would increase, ”the professor added.
Recall that Lichtman has been predicting the outcome of the US presidential election since 1984, when Ronald Reagan was re-elected for a second term. Since then, the professor has predicted eight candidates to win. In 2000, contrary to Lichtman's expectations, George W. Bush won the victory. But since Al Gore lost because of the Florida recount scandal, the professor insists that his prediction was correct. In addition, Gore won more votes than his opponent, but due to the fact that in the United States, not direct elections, but an electoral system, he was ultimately defeated.
In 2020, the US presidential election is scheduled for November 3. Donald Trump's main rival is Democrat and former Vice President Joe Biden. In late July, Trump called Biden a puppet of the left and said that if his opponent wins, American markets will "collapse."
"If the eternally sleeping Biden wins, the markets will collapse and our cities will be burned," said the head of the White House.
In early August, the American leader said that closed-door opinion polls were showing favorable results for him.
At the same time, according to the Rasmussen company as of August 5, the number of likely voters approving Trump's work is 48%, and 50% do not approve of the president's activities. Also, according to a sociological study conducted from July 27 to 28 by Reuters in conjunction with IPSOS, Joe Biden is supported by 47% of voters, and Trump is only 38%.