Article in the National Interest: The United States .. Will it remain united??

An article published by the magazine "The National Interest" by an American academic and researcher, discussed the possibilities that the United States will not remain a united country, and that it may be divided into several countries.

Mark Katz, Professor of Government and Politics at George Mason University and a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, began his article by saying that countries sometimes lose control of a large area of ​​their land before they recover most or even all of it.

He added that after years of political disagreements between the North and South American states over slavery and other issues, most of the southern states seceded from the American Union after the election of Abraham Lincoln as president in 1860. Following a fierce civil war, the Confederate forces were defeated and the Union restored in 1865.

He gave examples of countries that experienced conflicts in the past, which led to their collapse before they regained their unity again, noting that the Chinese revolution that overthrew the Manchu Dynasty in the early twentieth century, ended in the fragmentation of China into several provinces run by warlords.

However, things returned to normal with the emergence of the Chinese Nationalist Party known as the "Komintang" into existence in the 1920s.

It also happened that the Russian Empire collapsed following the demise of Tsar Nicholas II, but the Bolsheviks - under the command of Vladimir Lenin and the commander of the Red Army Leon Trotsky - were able to reintegrate most of the regions into the Russian state.

China's unity and existence as a state was threatened after Japan invaded Manchuria and the rest of China in 1937, but the country (except for the island of Taiwan) regained its unity after Japan's defeat in 1945 and the emergence of the Mayan Communist movement in 1949.

In 1941, Nazi Germany threatened to eliminate the entire Soviet Union, but Moscow was able to expel German forces, gain territory and extend its sphere of influence.

After nearly half a century, the Soviet Union collapsed and was replaced by 15 independent states.

Russia's current president, Vladimir Putin, has reclaimed Crimea from Ukraine and is working to restore Russian influence in parts, if not all, of that country.

contract breakage

A country's return to its territory might boost its chances of becoming a great power, as Russia and China have shown.

In general, governments favor the idea of ​​the collapse of other great powers that compete with them, which could lead to either a more homogeneous government or the disintegration of several states.

There was hope, after the end of the Cold War, that Russia and China would turn into democracies that would cooperate with the West or even join it, and it turned out later that this was just wishful thinking.

Mark Katz returns after that introduction on which he based his view of the subject of his article, claiming that some in Russia and China hope that a kind of split or collapse will occur in the United States.

He cites a Russian university professor named Igor Banarin, who had predicted that the US contract would break into 6 parts by 2010, and even published a map showing what he had gone to.

Katz believes that the Russian professor's predictions are wishful thinking, adding that many Chinese scholars are confident today that America is declining because of internal differences.

The author of the article asks: How will this happen?

He answers by saying that the logic of events usually indicates that the United States is in the process of a demographic transition from a white majority to a non-white majority, which may occur at some point during the fourth decade of this century.

The whites will not give up

However, white Americans - especially conservatives among them - will not voluntarily succumb to the emergence of a non-white majority in the United States, in the words of Mark Katz, who believes that whites will work to maintain their influence by force, "and in the best case (from the point of view of the Russians and the Chinese) the United States will It will, in fact, disintegrate."

And the American academic believes in his article in the National Interest magazine, that this would give Russia and China the opportunity to side with one or more countries that will be born from the womb of the collapse of the United States.

But even if the United States remained a united state - the writer adds - it would take a great effort on the part of the dwindling whites to maintain control over the increasing non-white population, which would make the United States less willing to send troops abroad, which would be in the interest of Russia and China. and Washington's other enemies.

In that case, America in that position would certainly not be bothered by Russia's and China's lack of democracy.

If the future of the United States is negative, as they hope, then Russia and China - and others - will certainly look at this as an opportunity to advance their ambitions as great powers.

Even if dissension grows within the United States, the experiences that Russia and China have experienced indicate that decline may be followed by resurgence, as Mark Katz put it in the conclusion of his article.