Recently, an analysis came out that the increase in apartment prices in Seoul is somewhat slowing down.
As the government continues to send a signal to increase supply to the market through advance subscriptions for the 3rd new city, as well as increase interest rates and increase loan regulations, the market for buying advantage seems to be gradually changing.
According to the 'Seoul Apartment Transaction Price Trend' data received from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport by Rep. Kim Hoe-jae of the Democratic Party of Korea belonging to the National Assembly Land Transport Committee on the 14th, the number of apartment transactions in Seoul where prices fell compared to the previous transaction increased significantly last month.
In Seoul last month (based on reports from 1st to 26th), 35.1% of the cases in which the price decreased from the previous transaction was 14.3 percentage points (p) higher than in August (20.8%) of the previous month.
The proportion of apartment price declines increased for the first time in five months and is the highest monthly level this year.
This year, the number of transactions that have decreased from the previous year was only 18.0% in January (493 out of 2,441 total), but increased to 23.9% in February, 27.5% in March, and 33.3% in April.
At that time, after the announcement of the 'February 4 measures' containing large-scale housing supply plans such as the 3rd new town, the number of transactions that fell after February was increased due to supply expectations.
Afterwards, as Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who promised to ease real estate regulations, was elected in the April 7 by-election, expectations for reconstruction grew. It fell for a month in a row, but rose to the 30% level again last month.
This is believed to be due to the growing perception that house prices have risen too much, and the weakening of buying sentiment as the Bank of Korea raised the base rate at the end of August and the financial authorities strengthened loan regulations through commercial banks.
In a weekly survey by the Korea Real Estate Agency, apartment prices in Seoul maintained the level of 0.20-0.22% in August and continued the highest growth rate this year, but in September, 0.21% (1 and 2 weeks) → 0.20% (3 weeks) → 0.19% (4 and 5 weeks), etc., the increase is decreasing.
An official from the Real Estate Agency said, "In the case of Seoul, it is understood that buying sentiment has contracted somewhat due to the effect of higher interest rates and lower limit on mortgage loans in the banking sector."
In this atmosphere, the number of items for sale is gradually accumulating in the trading market, and it is analyzed that the market, which has been dominant in selling, is gradually changing to being superior in buying.
According to real estate big data company Asil (apartment room transaction price), as of today, the number of apartments for sale in Seoul was 41,141, up 4.4% from a month ago (39,405).
Gwangjin-gu (15.1%) had the highest increase in properties, followed by Jungnang-gu (14.6%), Gangseo-gu (13.4%), Yongsan-gu (12.5%), and Nowon-gu (12.0%).
Experts say that it is unreasonable to say that Seoul apartment prices have entered a full-fledged decline, but they predicted that additional upside potential would be limited due to price spikes in the meantime, and buying sentiment would shrink due to loan restrictions.
Park Won-gap, senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, also said, "As excessive liquidity caused by low interest rates caused overheating in the housing market, interest rate hikes and strengthening loan regulations will have an impact on the housing market. There will be a slowdown.”
(Photo = Yonhap News)