Presidential earthquake in Tunisia .. Any repercussions on the legislative elections?

Khamis Ben Brik-Tunisia

Observers expected that the results of the legislative elections in Tunisia, scheduled to be held on the sixth of next month, a "new earthquake" similar to what happened in the first round of the presidential elections, which is contested in the second round independent candidate Qais Said and businessman arrested for financial corruption Nabil Karoui.

University professor Qais Saeed surprised everyone after leading the first round with simple possibilities, while the owner of the TV "Nesma" Nabil Al-Qarawi succeeded in the second place.

Observers believe that the results of the first round, which was held on September 15, carried the signs of failure of the coalition government parties after the defeat of Ennahda candidate Abdel Fattah Moro, and candidate of the party "Long live Tunisia" current Prime Minister Youssef Chahed.

Negative bounces
In the context, says political analyst Munther Al-Diafy to the island Net that all the results of opinion polls on the intentions of the vote, which was identical to the results of the electoral commission with a very small margin of error, confirms once again that the "earthquake" results of the first round of the presidential election will be followed by "negative repercussions" on Parties of the ruling coalition.

Analysts expected the "Heart of Tunisia" to lead the legislative elections, followed by Ennahda. He added that the party system would continue to fall back on the lines of Nidaa Tounes, Long Live Tunisia, Project Tunis and the leftist opposition, but he predicted the rise of independent coalition lists with a revolutionary background.

The Heart of Tunisia party, founded by media and business magnate Nabil Karoui in June, began to penetrate the popular and poor communities through aid and philanthropy. His political line is based on a liberal social orientation, betting on fighting poverty and social justice.

Activists also noted the rise of independent electoral lists such as "Tunisian Live" and coalition ones such as the Tunisian Youth Movement, which supports the candidacy of Qais Said in the presidential election, as well as the "Dignity Coalition," which has nominated lawyer Seif Eddine Makhlouf for the presidential election. To nationalize natural resources.

The composition of the next political scene will witness a radical change after the legislative elections, with the expectation of "new surprises" and the rise of unconventional political forces with larger blocs than the parliamentary blocs that are dominated by the current parliament, "Ennahda", "Long live Tunisia" and "Nidaa" movement. Tunisia".

The decline in the results of the ruling coalition parties is mainly due to the deterioration of living conditions and social conditions during the last years after the revolution, which deepened the state of frustration and mistrust among the voters who voted in the first round of the presidential elections as punitive for the ruling coalition parties, which suffered defeat despite their campaigns.

Absence of framing
Since the 2014 legislative elections, the country has been led by a governing coalition based on a policy of consensus between Nidaa Tounes and Ennahda, but following a resignation crisis that rocked Nidaa Tounes and disagreements with Ennahda, the latter formed a new governing coalition with "Long live Tunisia", one of the parties "Call of Tunisia".

The defeat of the presidential elections involved not only the ruling coalition parties but also opposition parties. He says that the failure of all these parties - their rulers and their opposition - is due to their failure to frame the citizens and the absence of direct communication with them, unlike the emerging political forces that have been marginalized and marginalized youth.

Following the defeat in the elections, the spokesman did not rule out that the major parties of the ruling coalition - Ennahda and "Long live Tunisia" - to disengage between them and end the policy of consensus that had gathered them over the past years, with the expectation of their results in the legislative elections waiting to form new alliances "difficult" ".

Al-Dhayafi estimated that the next parliament will be formed after the results of the legislative elections from dispersed blocs that do not have a comfortable majority to form the next government, unlike the 2014 elections in which Nidaa Tounes and Ennahdha have stepped up.He expected that the process of building the next alliances will see great difficulties due to the fragmentation and the different political trends.

Dispersed forces
For his part, former diplomat and political analyst Abdullah al-Obeidi agrees with the guest, expecting that the next parliament will be composed of political forces dispersed from different currents and ideological references, which will "make the formation of alliances difficult and complex process may make it impossible to form a government around a strong political belt."

He says to Al Jazeera Net that the hypothesis of the rise of new political forces such as "the heart of Tunisia" and the rise of political forces with different tendencies, will make the formation of the government "difficult", pointing out that negotiations on the formation of the government by the party winning the largest number of seats in parliament will be based on Make concessions and interests.

Early elections
He did not rule out the possibility of Tunisia to hold early legislative elections if the majority party is unable to form a government within the constitutional deadline, stressing that according to the results of the presidential elections, "there will be no parliamentary blocs in the strong and homogeneous, but small parliamentary groups separated by interests." .

Following the ratification of the new constitution in 2014, Tunisia's system of government took a parliamentary approach, with Article 89 requiring that the winning party or coalition win most seats in parliament to form a government within one month of the announcement of final results.

If the winning party's consultations do not produce any result, the President of the Republic shall hold consultations with the parties and parliamentary blocs within ten days to assign a figure from the winning party to supervise the formation of a government within one month.

In the event that four months have elapsed without the approval of the elected parliament to form a new government, the President of the Republic shall dissolve the Parliament and call for early legislative elections in a period of not less than 45 days and not exceeding 90 days.

Legislative elections will be held on October 6, with the second round of presidential elections between Qais Sa'id and Nabil al-Qarawi held either on the same day or on the 13th of the same month, as decided by the Electoral Commission with the expiry of all the deadlines of appeals and the resumption of the results of the role. First for Presidential.