ON DECRYPT
The news was in the air since the decision of Matteo Salvini, August 8, to break the coalition in power for 14 months. It came to fruition on Tuesday afternoon: Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation to senators and de facto precipitated Italy in political uncertainty.
In this generalized flurry of institutions, one thing is certain: President Sergio Mattarella holds the key to the political situation. He will start consultations quickly, with the expected parade in his Quirinal Palace of the entire Italian political class to explore the possibility of a new majority.
Tale at the head of a transitional government?
Several hypotheses are emerging: the head of state could first ask Giuseppe Conte to remain at the helm of the country to pilot a transitional government. A "Conte bis" government could make progress in drafting the budget for 2020 and avoid an automatic VAT increase planned next year, if nothing is done before to fill a hole of 23 billion in the coffers of the State.
This would give the 5 Stars Movement (M5S) time to build a compact with the Democratic Party (PD, center-left) for "a strong and renewing government in its program," in the words of PD Nicola's leader. Zingaretti. The idea of a PD-M5S alliance came, by surprise, from former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, still a heavyweight of the PD, who proposed to his former enemies of the M5S a reconciliation and an "institutional" government .
Salvini, (almost) alone against all
Another track for Sergio Mattarella has been suggested by former Prime Minister and former President of the European Commission Romano Prodi, who proposes a pro-European government called "Ursula", named after the new president of the European Commission, German Ursula von der Leyen. Romano Prodi, always very listened to, imagines a left-right alliance for Italy to return to the forefront in Europe.
With his multiple attacks, Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini finally managed to bury the ruling coalition. What role will he play now that the government has fallen? The fracture is now clear between the leader of the League (far right) and the M5S. But if Matteo Salvini is now at odds with almost the entire transalpine political chessboard, he can count on his popularity with the Italians: the League is credited with 36 to 38% of votes according to polls, and more than 50 % in case of alliance with the traditional right. This is what drives him to demand a return to the polls to resolve this major political crisis for the country.