Every day, Didier François deals with an international topic.
Italy is therefore since this Tuesday without government. The President of the Council (Giuseppe Conte) having announced in the Senate his intention to resign. His coalition has no more majority, following the motion of censure deposited by its Minister of the Interior (Matéo Salvini).
From this point of view, the boss of the Northern League won. A mechanical victory since his party withdrew from the alliance formed 14 months ago with the 5 Stars Movement. The government formed in the wake therefore no longer has a majority and the President of the Council has drawn all the consequences by announcing his resignation. It was handed in the wake to the President of the Italian Republic, Sergio Mattarella.
Did Mattéo Salvini win his bet?
Far from it ... What the right-wing leader wanted by triggering this political crisis was to call for early elections as soon as possible (in the autumn if possible), because the polls of the last weeks are extremely favorable. They give him 36% of voting intentions, which is 20 points better than in the last election in 2018. This would allow him to reverse the balance of power by siphoning the voices of the 5 Stars Movement and becoming the leader of the first force. Italian policy. However, it is not at all certain that President Mattarella decides to call elections. In the Italian parliamentary system, the resignation of the government does not necessarily refer voters to the polls. The President of the Republic has in fact completely the hand and a few days to consult all the political groups to see if (by chance) they would not be willing to form a new coalition, including around Guiseppe Conte. This would allow a government to be reformed without going through a general election, a simple ratification of the Senate would suffice. Today it is an option very seriously considered.
This is even one of the proposals of leading personalities of the center left like the former head of government Matteo Renzi or the former president of the European Commission, Romano Prodi?
It's exactly that ! We are seeing a kind of front of the refusal of all Italian political leaders to the coup by Mattéo Salvini. The boss of the Northern League made a huge miscalculation by triggering this institutional crisis just days before the adoption of the budget. The risk is to trigger a serious economic downturn, starting with a significant rise in VAT, in a context where the European Union is worried about the level of the Italian debt. This argument (which still speaks to the Italian consumer) has obviously justified this rapprochement of all the elected members of Parliament or the Senate who do not really want to put their mandates into play as quickly and under rather unfavorable conditions. Whence these various proposals of provisional governments (more or less technical but of national unity) which would make it possible at the same time to avoid an economic crisis and to postpone to a quieter period, a general general election. The case is therefore far from settled.