Two days before the Tunisian presidential election, the outcome of the first round promises to be "very uncertain", as Franco-Tunisian historian and researcher Sophia Bessis explains to France 24: "This election is very uncertain in the as it unfolds in a highly fragmented political landscape, very fragmented.Never the uncertainty was as total on the outcome of the first round of Sunday night.
The researcher at IRIS, a specialist in African and Maghreb issues, talks about the situation of several candidates, starting with "the populist and popular" Nabil Karoui, whom the court decided to keep in jail on Friday. "He played on the compassionate aspect of his communication, he went to distribute to the poor of the country - in remote rural areas - food, everyday objects," she says. "And its slogan is 'God, the homeland, the poor', but it's not a program."
And Sophia Bessis questions: "Will he be able to govern Tunisia if he wins at the end of the first round? We can doubt very seriously to the extent that he is still accused - without being condemned for the moment - of serious financial delinquency in many areas. "
"Ennahda aims at the roost of the National Assembly"
The surprise of this first round could also be the Ennahda party "despite the erosion of its electorate", explains the researcher: "This party keeps a strong base and it is not impossible that its official candidate, Abdelfattah Mourou, arrives at second ballot. "
But the goal of Ennahda seems to be another vote, according to Sophia Bessis: "(This party) certainly gives importance to the presidential election, but much more in parliamentary elections.And (Ennahda) aims at the perch of the National Assembly - its president having a very important power, while the Tunisian Constitution grants to the head of the State of the relatively limited prerogatives.
Finally, regarding the current political and social situation in Tunisia, the Franco-Tunisian historian and researcher believes that "since 2011, political forces have succeeded in setting up a political pact that led to the promulgation of the 2014 Constitution" . Before qualifying: "They (the political forces) either did not want or could not establish a social pact with the popular layers that had been at the origin of the uprising of November 2010. So the social responses have not not up to the expectations of the population, and Tunisia today is out of economic policy. "
Sophia Bessis says that among the 26 candidates running for the first round on Sunday, "none has presented a real economic and social program that can get Tunisia out of the rut. and the citizens know it very well. "