China's military moves toward Taiwan are unusual.
Earlier, 38 Chinese military aircraft, including fighters, entered Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on October 1, the National Day of China, the anniversary of the founding of China.
It was the largest since Taiwan's defense ministry began publicizing the entry of Chinese troops into the air defense identification zone in September last year.
The Taiwanese military sent in patrol aircraft to demand their evacuation and tracked them with the radar of the air defense missile unit.
However, on October 2nd, China entered the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone with 39 military aircraft, one more than this, and on the 4th, the number of military aircraft was greatly increased to 56.
In four days, it broke the record three times.
Including the entry of 16 aircraft on the 3rd, a cumulative 149 military aircraft entered the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone in four days.
The military aircraft that entered on the 4th included 34 J (Zen)-16 fighters, 2 SU (Sukhoi)-30 fighters, Y (Win)-8 anti-submarine patrol aircraft, 2 H (Hung)-6 bombers, etc. .
Military aircraft entered 38 → 39 → 56 more… Chinese state media "War is real"
When Chinese military planes entered Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone on October 1st, it was understood as a 'celebration' force demonstration held by China on National Day. Analysts prevailed that the celebration of their country's National Day was intended to inspire patriotism among the Chinese and strengthen internal solidarity. But tensions are rising as China's armed protests continue. Citing 'Golf9', a Twitter account specializing in aircraft tracking, the Taiwan Associated Press reported that three US Air Force B-52 strategic bombers took off from Anderson Air Force Base in Guam on the 2nd and appeared in the eastern waters and southwestern airspace of Taiwan.
U.S. State Department spokeswoman Ned Price said: "We are very concerned about China's provocative military action that threatens to undermine peace and stability in the region and pose a risk of miscalculation." “Taiwan independence is the road to death,” he said.
The current of Chinese state media is also changing. The state-run Global Times reported that it was "normal and routine training" until October 2, citing military expert Song Zhongping. "We are increasing the size of our training to curb foreign interference with Taiwan's military," he said. This is to emphasize that it is a part of daily training, not for the purpose of actual provocation. In an editorial on the 3rd, the Global Times also called the entry of Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone as 'a form of National Day parade.' "To celebrate the 72nd anniversary of the founding of China, to greatly encourage the people and highlight the special meaning of National Day." China's declaration of sovereignty over Taiwan." The Chinese military has already sent fighter jets over Taiwan 198 times this year alone.
However, on the 5th, the tone of the media changed significantly.
"It's time to warn Taiwan's separatists and their agitators," the Global Times said in an editorial posted on the night of the 4th. "War is real."
This comes after the US State Department expressed concern and 56 Chinese military aircraft entered the country.
The Global Times said, "The Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party openly calls the Chinese military an 'enemy' and has a more daring alliance with the United States and Japan.
“It created a sense of crisis that war could happen at any time,” he said.
“China has clearly opened the door to preparations for a comprehensive military struggle,” he said.
If you look at the editorial alone, it seems that the Chinese military's entry into the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone has shifted from a 'declaration of sovereignty' to a 'actual war practice' in a day or two.
Scenario of 'China Invasion of Taiwan in 2027'... The balance of power seems to depend
Most experts agree that it is unlikely that China will invade Taiwan immediately. Il-hyeon Moon, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, said, "If China uses force on Taiwan, it could lead to a 'destruction of the status quo' rather than a 'change the status quo'. high predicted. Professor Moon continued, "The recent series of military exercises have a strong intention to clearly imprint China's military superiority ahead of the Double Tenth Day, the anniversary of Taiwan's founding on the 10th." "The intention is to assure the US that the Taiwan issue is a 'red line' that should not be crossed at a time when negotiations with the US are showing signs of resumption in various fields, including trade," he added.
If so, will China continue to invade Taiwan in the future? No one can say for sure about this. Rather, the scenario of China's invasion of Taiwan by 2027 is cautiously emerging from both inside and outside China. If President Xi Jinping succeeds in being re-elected for a third term next year, 2027 will be the time to decide whether to be re-elected for a fourth term. Even in China, a third term may be possible, but a fourth term is unlikely to be easy. In addition, given the trend of population growth, there is an analysis that China's economy may reach its peak by 2027 and then go downhill. From the perspective of the Chinese government, and from the perspective of President Xi, a breakthrough and a win-win situation may be necessary.
Military analysis also supports this scenario. China currently has two aircraft carriers: the Liaoning and the Shandong. A third aircraft carrier is currently under construction, and Chinese media expects to launch it early next year. If this trend continues, it is predicted that by 2027, China will have about six aircraft carriers. If China attacks Taiwan and the US intervenes, it could end in a naval battle. This is because if China strikes Guam or, conversely, if the US bombs mainland China, the situation could become out of control. Behind the rumors of an invasion in 2027, there is an analysis that 'If China has six aircraft carriers, it will not fall behind the US forces such as the US 7th Fleet in the naval battles surrounding Taiwan'.
Former US Indo-Pacific Commander Philip Davidson, who retired in April this year, said in an interview with Japanese media on the 23rd of last month, "The scenario of China's invasion and annexation of Taiwan within the next six years is becoming more visible."
Former Commander Davidson cited changes in the Chinese military, such as missile, cyber, and training capabilities, and mutual use of troops and rear support as the basis.
He also cited President Xi Jinping's long-term will to rule.
The next six years specified by former Commander Davidson coincidentally coincide with the year 2027 raised in the preceding scenario.
If a war breaks out, the outcome is difficult to predict.
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Wu Zhaoshe reaffirmed his firm stance in an interview with Australian Broadcasting on the 4th, saying, "If China attacks Taiwan, Taiwan will fight to the end" and "China will also suffer huge losses."
The United States is strengthening its alliances with Japan and Australia in the Pacific.
According to the scenario above, it seems that within six years, which direction the 'balance weight of power' will lean will determine whether or not a war will break out.