[View by data] Delayed recovery of GDP What is the balance between infection control and economic activities?

GDP = gross domestic product from October to December last year will be announced on the 15th.

Japan's GDP growth rate continues to be influenced by the infection of the new coronavirus, leading to a delay in recovery.

Looking back over the past year or so, GDP from October to December was a real annualized increase of 9.6% compared to the previous three months, excluding price fluctuations.

However, in the three months since the beginning of the year, the growth rate will turn negative due to the state of emergency declared due to the rapid spread of infection.

The next three months, from April to June last year, were positive, but from July to September, personal consumption fell to minus 3.6% due to the declaration of an emergency due to the spread of Delta strains. rice field.

You can see that the plus and minus have been repeated in a way that depends on the infection situation.

Regarding the GDP announced this time from October to December last year, the private sector forecast is 6.06% on average, but it is not expected to reach the level before the spread of the new corona.

Furthermore, as the infection of Omicron strains spreads nationwide since last month, there is a view that the growth rate of GDP in the three months until next month will slow down significantly.

There is a possibility that the time when GDP will recover to the pre-corona level will be delayed after the new fiscal year, and the issue is how to balance infection control and economic activities, such as improving the medical system.

Looking at the data, we are worried about the future of consumption recovery ...

The GDP announced on the 15th will reveal how much domestic consumption and production took place and how much the Japanese economy grew during the three months from October to December last year.

According to the data, the state of emergency was completely lifted during this period, and the infection status of the new corona was relatively calm, indicating that personal consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, is recovering.

On the other hand, there are some worrisome data about the future.

This graph is the result of a survey that looks at consumption trends based on credit card usage information.

During the three months from October last year, the priority measures such as the declaration of emergency and the prevention of spread were completely lifted, and the number of infected people per day in Japan was less than 100, and the infection situation was relatively calm. did.

For this reason, we can see that "service consumption" including transportation, travel, and eating out has recovered compared to the previous three months.

In addition, “consumption of goods” including online shopping remained strong even after the demand for nesting had run its course, and overall consumption exceeded the level before the spread of infection for three consecutive months and recovered from the slump until summer.

Let's take a closer look at the breakdown of "service consumption" that led to the recovery of overall consumption.

First, eating out.

In the summer when the infection spread rapidly, it was depressed, but it recovered in October last year when the state of emergency was lifted, and in December it recorded higher sales than the previous year.

Travel, which has been at record lows, has also recovered.

The number of guests staying at hotels and inns in Japan fell to less than half of what it was before the spread of the infection in September last year, but it has been increasing since October, and the number of Japanese guests has spread in December. It surpassed the front.

Private consumption forecasts that the real growth rate of GDP will be positive for the first time in two quarters as private consumption has picked up, but there are some worrisome data about the future.

This graph is a superposition of the "Consumer Attitude Index", which shows consumers' willingness to shop, and the transition of GDP.

As this index of consumer sentiment deteriorates compared to the previous month, we can see that the growth rate of GDP announced after that tends to be negative as it follows.

The consumer confidence index in January fell by 2.4 points from the previous month due to the re-infection of the new corona and the rise in prices of gasoline and foods that are familiar to people.

For this reason, the Cabinet Office has revised down the keynote judgment of consumer sentiment for the first time in eight months, saying that it is "stuck", and there are concerns about the impact on personal consumption due to the re-spread of infection and rising prices.

Furthermore, in January, the realization of the economy of workers has deteriorated significantly.

According to the "Economy Watchers Survey," which asks more than 2,000 working people about the actual state of the economy, the index showing the current state of the economy in January fell significantly below the previous month and deteriorated for the first time in five months.

The rate of decline is the second largest in the past after the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011.

Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the total GDP, continues to be influenced by the infection status of the new corona, and it is feared that the GDP from January to March will slow down again as it reflects the current infection status.