Chinanews client, Beijing, September 9th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Driven by the continuous expansion of the year-on-year decline in pork prices, the national consumer price (CPI) continued to fall in August.

At present, the pig price drops below 10 yuan again, how will it affect the CPI trend in the future?

CPI ups and downs chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

"Second Brothers" fell sharply, August CPI fell year-on-year

　　Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th showed that in August, the CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, food prices fell by 4.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, which affected the decrease of CPI by about 0.77 percentage points.

　　In food, the price of pork fell by 44.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI drop by about 1.09 percentage points; the price of freshwater fish rose by 25.4%, a decline of 5.5 percentage points; the price of eggs and edible vegetable oil rose by 15.9% and 9.4, respectively. %, the increase has fallen.

　　"According to estimates, of the 0.8% year-on-year increase in August, the carryover impact of last year's price changes was about 0.2 percentage points, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the impact of the new price increases was about 0.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Percentage points." Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.1% lower than the previous month.

Data map: Citizens of Zhengzhou City, Henan Province buy vegetables in a large supermarket.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Han Zhangyun

Affected by the weather and the epidemic, the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs rose month-on-month

　　From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI rose by 0.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, food prices changed from a 0.4% drop last month to a 0.8% increase, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.14 percentage points.

　　"In food, affected by the spread of epidemics in many places, heavy rainfall and high temperature weather, the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs rose by 8.6% and 8.4% respectively from the previous month, and the increase was 7.3 and 7.4 percentage points higher than the previous month." Dong Lijuan pointed out.

　　According to the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of vegetables in August was 3.78 yuan/kg, an increase of 15.9% month-on-month and 1.9% year-on-year.

　　In addition, “the supply of pork continued to increase, and the price continued to fall by 1.4%, which was 0.5 percentage points smaller than the previous month.” Dong Lijuan said.

　　A reporter from Chinanews.com recently visited the supermarket and found that pork prices have stabilized at a low level.

In a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing, the price of pork is more than 11 yuan per catty.

Data map: Consumers are buying pork in a supermarket in Taiyuan, Shanxi.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

The pig price drops below 10 yuan again, what is the future trend of CPI?

　　According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, from August 30 to September 5, the national market price of edible agricultural products dropped by 0.7% from the previous week.

Among them, the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables was the same as the previous week; the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits dropped slightly; the price of meat dropped slightly. The wholesale price of pork was 19.27 yuan per kilogram, down 2.8% from the previous week, and dropped to 10 yuan per catty again. the following.

　　"The national live pig inventory is at a high level, and pork prices are expected to continue to run at a low level. It is difficult to significantly increase the CPI. Non-food prices will rise more moderately. The CPI tail-lifting factor will decline. There will be little pressure on future CPI increases, and the overall increase will remain moderate." Transportation Said Liu Xuezhi, a senior macro analyst at the Banking Financial Research Center.

　　"Currently, the supply of products is still sufficient, and the monetary policy remains stable." Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics of Peking University, told Chinanews.com that the year-on-year increase in CPI in the next quarter is expected to be between 1% and 2%.

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