"One line and two meetings" voiced in unison yesterday
Monetary policy is stable, personal speculation in foreign exchange and gold is difficult to get rich
This year, my country’s CPI trend is low and then high, the monetary policy sticks to a steady word, further increases the proportion of direct financing, financial derivatives investment is very unsuitable for personal investment and wealth management, two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will become the norm... June 10, tenth The third Lujiazui Forum opened in Shanghai. The theme of this forum focused on "China's Financial Reform and Opening-up under Global Changes".
Relevant persons in charge of the "one bank and two meetings" made speeches on hot topics such as the current monetary policy, the most prominent financial tasks at this stage, the focus of preventing financial risks, and the pace of IPO issuance.
By Lin Xiaoli, Wang Chuhan, Zhang Lu, all media reporters from Guangzhou Daily
It is expected that the average annual increase in CPI will be less than 2%
Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that monetary policy should pay attention to the impact of structural changes on prices.
The aging of the population will lead to an increase in residents' precautionary savings and a decline in consumption propensity, thus curbing inflation, and the green transition will increase the price trend.
Price pressures in different directions will hedge against each other to a certain extent, which will help stabilize prices as a whole.
Second, my country persisted in implementing normal monetary policies during the epidemic last year, and domestic aggregate demand was relatively stable, which is conducive to maintaining overall price stability.
In addition, since the beginning of this year, my country’s PPI growth rate has been relatively high, which is to some extent related to the low base formed by the negative PPI last year. Therefore, we can observe PPI changes from the overall perspective of last year and next year for three consecutive years.
Judging from various factors, my country’s CPI trend this year was low and then high. The average increase in CPI for the whole year is expected to be below 2%.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, PPI rose 9% year-on-year in May, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, the highest point since 2009; CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year, and fell 0.2% month-on-month.
Most market researchers believe that PPI growth is close to the top.
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, analyzed that the PPI tail-lifting factor is expected to decline significantly in the third quarter. Coupled with the slowdown in the price increase of upstream primary products, the PPI growth rate is expected to stabilize and fall.
Yi Gang pointed out that considering that my country's economic operation is within a reasonable range, near the potential output level, and the price trend is generally controllable, the monetary policy should be adapted to the new development stage, adhere to the principle of stability, and adhere to the implementation of normal monetary policy.
For the monetary policy of developed countries to reach an unprecedented degree of easing, Guo Shuqing, secretary of the Party Committee of the People’s Bank of China and Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, pointed out that in the short term, it has indeed played a role in stabilizing the market and stabilizing people’s hearts. Commit together.
Guo Shuqing said that at present, the prices of financial assets and real estate in developed countries have generally seen substantial increases.
In particular, the stock market quickly reached a record high level.
People who often climb mountains know that the steeper the mountain, the harder it is to go up, and the harder it is to go down.
In addition, inflation is coming as scheduled, and it is a bit higher than what analysts in Europe and the United States expected. As for the duration, it does not seem to be as short as many experts predict.
Financial derivatives investment is very unsuitable for personal investment and financial management
Guo Shuqing emphasized that from the perspective of mature financial markets, institutional investors are mainly involved in financial derivatives investment, which is very unsuitable for personal investment and financial management.
Those who speculate on foreign exchange, gold and other commodity futures will hardly have the opportunity to make a fortune, just as those who bet that house prices will never fall will eventually pay a heavy price.
"The implication is that we hope everyone invests rationally, and don't engage in speculation with the mentality of gambling and getting rich." said Song Jiangzhen, investment director of Guangdong Yuebao Gold.
However, the assets to be allocated still need to be allocated. The just-needed house and speculative real estate are not the same thing. Gold speculation and gold investment collection are also two different things. I hope investors can make investment plans and invest rationally based on their actual conditions and risk tolerance. .
A senior executive of a futures company with more than 10 years of experience told reporters that the futures market requires high professionalism.
Individual investors are not professional investors and have not received systematic education. Due to their own psychological deviation, risk appetite and other influencing factors, it is easy to cause individual investors to blindly trade, and it is easy to lose money and make profit difficult.
At the same time, the current futures market imposes strict investor suitability.
Contains two aspects: one is that futures business institutions should promote futures products to appropriate investors; the other is that investors in the futures market should have the corresponding qualifications. Investors should comprehensively evaluate their own economic strength in accordance with the requirements of the principle of appropriateness. Product awareness, risk control and tolerance, and prudently decide whether to participate in the futures market.
In addition, for the most prominent task of domestic finance at this stage, Guo Shuqing said that it is to further increase the proportion of direct financing.
In the scale of new social financing last year, bond and stock financing accounted for about 37%, and there is still more room for development, especially the bond market still has great potential.
Guo Shuqing believes that one of the main shortcomings hindering its healthy growth is that the legal system of the bond market is not sound enough.
The fundamental measure is to accelerate the reform of the registration system centered on information disclosure, truly strengthen investor suitability management, and ensure that issuers, intermediaries, and investors strictly fulfill their obligations and assume their respective responsibilities in accordance with the law.
IPO issuance is normalized and the growth rate is not slow
The pilot registration of the Science and Technology Innovation Board is a major exploration of incremental reforms and has always attracted attention.
As of the end of May, there were 282 companies listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, with a total market value of nearly 4.1 trillion yuan.
The IPO financing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was 361.5 billion yuan, more than 40% of the total A-share IPO financing in the same period.
Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that in 2020, the net profit of listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board will increase by 59% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than the overall market level.
Yi Huiman said that the IPO continues to maintain a normalized issuance, and the growth rate is not slow.
From the data point of view, the number of IPOs has maintained rapid growth in the past three years. In the first five months of this year, there were 196 IPO companies with a total financing of more than 150 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111% and 37% respectively.
Yi Huiman mentioned that for a long time, companies have been open to choosing a place for listing. Choosing a suitable place for listing is an independent choice made by companies based on their own development needs.
What needs to be emphasized is that no matter which market a company is listed in, it must abide by local laws and regulations, establish a sense of public company, respect the rule of law, and respect investors.
Regarding the issue of making better use of commodity futures functions and hedging price risks, Yi Huiman pointed out that due to various reasons, the pricing benchmarks for international trade of some bulk commodities mainly rely on international spot indexes and over-the-counter market quotations.
Therefore, we call on relevant international institutions to establish a more rigorous and scientific index compilation mechanism, improve the transparency and binding of quotations, and jointly improve the efficiency of commodity price discovery, so as to better maintain the stability and security of the global industrial chain supply chain.
Foreign exchange risk management should avoid "procyclical" and "streaking" behaviors
Regarding the operation of the foreign exchange market, Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the central bank and director of the foreign exchange bureau, said that since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the dollar has fluctuated in both directions and is generally stable.
Due to the complex factors affecting the RMB exchange rate, two-way fluctuations will become the norm.
Pan Gongsheng mentioned that in recent years, my country’s foreign exchange market has made great progress. The foreign exchange derivatives market has a certain depth and breadth. It has formed a rich product system such as forwards, foreign exchange swaps, currency swaps and options, as well as diversified products. Market participants.
In 2020, the transaction scale of my country's foreign exchange market will be 30 trillion U.S. dollars, of which 60% will be foreign exchange derivatives transactions.
The concept of "exchange risk neutrality" in Chinese enterprises has been continuously strengthened, and the level of exchange rate risk management has been continuously improved. Since the beginning of this year, the hedging ratio of corporate foreign exchange derivatives has reached more than 20%, an increase of 5 percentage points from last year, but there is still a lot of room for improvement.
Pan Gongsheng reminded that market entities should adapt to the normality of two-way exchange rate fluctuations, establish a concept of exchange rate risk neutrality, avoid the "procyclical" and "streaking" behaviors of foreign exchange risk management, and do not bet on the appreciation or devaluation of the renminbi. Long-term bets will lose.
Central Bank: New RMB loans of 1.5 trillion yuan in May
Guangzhou Daily (all-media reporter Lin Xiaoli) In the context of the rapid decline in new RMB loans last month, the scale of new RMB loans this month slightly exceeded market expectations.
On June 10, the latest data released by the People's Bank of China showed that RMB loans increased by 1.5 trillion yuan in May, an increase of 14.3 billion yuan over the same period last year and an increase of 312.7 billion yuan over the same period in 2019.
However, the increase in the scale of social financing was 1.92 trillion yuan, which was 1.27 trillion yuan less than the same period last year.
As of the end of May, M2 (broad money) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month.
In the view of many analysts, finance continues to increase its support for the real economy, and money and credit continue to improve.
However, under the requirements of risk prevention, the margin of social finance has tightened.
From a structural point of view, short-term loans to the residential sector increased by 180.6 billion yuan, a rebound from the previous month; medium and long-term household loans increased by 442.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.2 billion yuan and 23.6 billion yuan from the previous month and the same period last year.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believes that this reflects the tightening of real estate control policies and the rise of mortgage interest rates, etc., or certain restrictions on mortgage loans.