While the government has decided to extend the quarantine duty for confirmed cases, which is the current one week, by four more weeks, analysis results show that if the quarantine duty is lifted, the number of confirmed cases could increase by up to 4.5 times compared to the current one.
If the quarantine obligation for confirmed patients is completely lifted and the switch to self-isolation is switched to self-quarantine, the time of the outbreak, which was predicted to be this fall, could be accelerated.
According to the mathematical modeling data released by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) today (20th), it is expected that the number of confirmed cases will rebound in June and July if the duty to isolate confirmed cases is lifted.
If the current 7-day quarantine is maintained, the number of confirmed cases will decrease from 14,646 at the end of this month to around 9,000 at the end of July. expected to increase.
Even when the current system is switched to self-quarantine for three days, which is half of the current week, it is expected that the number of confirmed cases will increase to 24,000 as of the end of July compared to when the quarantine was maintained.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) also released predictions related to the lifting of quarantine at 10 domestic research institutions, and 9 out of 10 institutions expressed the opinion that quarantine obligations need to be maintained.
Some research institutes even predicted that the number of confirmed cases would increase by 7.5 times in July if the quarantine of confirmed cases is completely lifted.
The quarantine authorities said they would continue to monitor the epidemic for the next four weeks and decide whether to lift the quarantine around June 20 after collecting expert opinions.
(Photo = Yonhap News)