China-Singapore Jingwei, March 24 (Dong Xiangyi) Any disturbance in the property market will arouse concern.
On March 23, Harbin City announced the abolition of the sales restriction policy introduced in 2018, becoming the first city to abolish the sales restriction order during the year. What is the significance of the signal?
In the context of "housing, not speculating," and "policy by city", will other cities follow suit?
Harbin abolished the sales restriction order, what signal?
On March 23, the Harbin Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-rural Development announced that, with the approval of the municipal government, in view of the "Notice of the General Office of the Harbin Municipal People's Government on Further Strengthening the Regulation of the Real Estate Market" (Ha Zheng Ban Gui [2018] No. 12) After completing its phased control mission, it is planned to be abolished.
Source: Screenshot of Harbin Municipal People's Government website
Among them, the expression "has completed its phased regulation mission" is particularly interesting.
The most important stipulation in Hazhengbangui [2018] No. 12 is “implementing a regional sales restriction policy”. In the 6th district of the main urban area, the authority to cancel the registration information of the construction unit’s online contract signing shall be cancelled. It can only be listed and traded after 3 years from the date of signing the online signing contract.
"Harbin's repeal of some phased tightening policies in the past is also adjusted based on changes in the market and situation. From the content of the policy in 2018, the biggest highlight is the introduction of the sales restriction policy at that time." E-House Research Institute think tank Yan Yuejin, the research director of the center, believes that Harbin has both abolished policies and a new form of policy relaxation.
The incomplete relaxation of policies will be reflected in the introduction of some relaxing clauses in various places, and it may also be reflected in the cancellation of some policies that are both too strict and too tight.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in February, the sales price of newly-built commercial housing in Harbin fell by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year; the sales price of second-hand housing fell by 1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year.
Since August 2021, new home prices in Harbin have fallen for seven consecutive months.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the housing price in Harbin has been declining for many months, and the overall property market is very sluggish. The previous tightening policy to curb the overheated property market does need to be relaxed.
Guan Rongxue, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said that the epidemic has repeated across the country, and the resistance of the property market has increased, and the epidemic has affected the employment situation in the market to a certain extent. The decline in residents' deposits has led to a decline in the purchasing power of the property market. The tension in the property market has led to a relatively weak transaction situation in the property market and a backlog of inventory in the city. Therefore, it is more appropriate and timely for Harbin to announce the abolition of regional sales restrictions at this time. In the short term, it will awaken the demand of some home buyers, especially those in restricted areas, to further ease the demand for home buyers. The pressure of urban inventory makes reasonable housing needs be met.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei that non-hot cities are basically loosening restrictions. Harbin's cancellation of some restrictive measures this time is actually to promote housing consumption. The cancellation of restrictive measures in non-hot cities is Within the scope of "one city, one policy".
For Harbin, the cancellation of sales restrictions allows houses to be listed and circulated, which is conducive to the circulation and circulation of houses.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
Are other cities following suit?
It is worth noting that before Harbin lifted the sales restriction policy, many cities have already taken action. On March 1, Zhengzhou issued 19 new policies to stabilize real estate, which eased purchase restrictions and loan restrictions.
Will other cities follow suit in the future?
"Definitely, especially in second-tier cities, the market is very depressed now." In Zhang Dawei's view, in 2018-2019, a number of cities were loosened, but the impact on the property market was not large. The overall trend depends more on changes in credit policies. Especially for the identification of the first set of credit, and the level of mortgage interest rates also greatly affects the purchasing power of home buyers.
Yan Yuejin believes that such practices in Harbin can be used for reference by other cities across the country.
All localities need to effectively implement the local responsibility system, check some outdated policies that affect the current stable development of real estate, and take the initiative to abolish and amend them, so that policy adjustments can create a better window for the recovery of the real estate market.
Guan Rongxue said that it is also rare for Harbin to abolish the regional sales restriction policy this time. Under the pressure of the market, it is necessary to adjust the policy to boost confidence. However, after all, the characteristics of urban development are different from the difficulties to be solved. It is even more precious, and the cancellation of regional differentiated sales restrictions will also promote the dynamic equilibrium of the development of the property market among various regions in Harbin, and further promote the healthy and sound development of real estate.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
During the year, over 60 cities will stabilize the property market. How will the regulation go?
The 2022 government work report pointed out that we should adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, explore new development models, and insist on both renting and purchasing; stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations, and implement city-specific policies to promote a virtuous circle in the real estate industry and healthy development.
According to data from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute, since 2022, more than 60 cities across the country have issued various policies to stabilize the property market more than 70 times, and the policies issued by superimposed ministries and commissions have been close to 100 times.
Since March alone, there have been nearly 50 real estate control policies, and the main policy contents are various commercial loans, provident funds, and housing subsidies for talents.
"On the whole, the easing of real estate policies has become a market trend, and stability has become a key word." Zhang Dawei said that from the perspective of market trends, the epidemic has affected the recent property market, especially in non-first- and second-tier core cities. Some cities have also experienced a slow rise in temperature due to the epidemic.
It is expected that the real estate market will be difficult to adjust in the first half of 2022, and the market expects more obvious stabilization policies for housing loans.
The annual work conference of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development requires "to fully release the potential of residents' housing demand". Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Zhixin Investment, believes that real estate regulation is expected to usher in substantial loosening, including possible restrictions on purchases, sales, loans and other policies. Adjustment.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)