"Expanding China" should not only focus on quantity but also on quality
Tan Haojun
According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, the size of the middle-income group in my country is about 400 million.
In 2002, the number of middle-income people in my country was only 7.358 million. In less than 20 years, the number of middle-income people has increased by more than 54 times.
At present, my country has become the country with the largest number of middle-income people and the largest scale in the world, and the number of middle-income people has reached twice that of the United States.
Such middle-income groups are very powerful in terms of spending power and social stability.
So, how should the changes in the middle-income group be viewed?
How to adjust and improve the next step of "expansion" thinking?
my country's current middle-income group has only been effectively expanded and increased in number, and there is still a big gap compared with my country's actual population and actual demand.
For the work of "expanding China", it is not only about quantity, but also about quality.
Data show that in 2021, my country's middle-income group will account for 27.9% of the total population.
On the contrary, the proportion of middle-income groups in the total population in western developed countries is more than 50%, compared with 55.9% in the United States, more than 70% in Britain, Germany and France in Western Europe and Norway in Northern Europe.
From the perspective of the income level of the middle-income group, it is very important whether there are more people at the upper limit or more people at the lower limit.
If the overall income level of the middle-income group is at the upper limit of the group, then the group's ability to consume and stabilize the society will become stronger and stronger, and the quality of the middle-income group will become higher and higher.
On the contrary, it is still at a lower quality level.
Under such circumstances, it is necessary to not only expand the number of middle-income groups, but also increase the income level of the middle-income group, so that it will continue to move closer to the upper limit and continuously improve the quality of the group.
From the perspective of both ends of residents' income, the changes in high-income groups and low-income groups are also very important.
In a truly developed economy, the proportion of high-income people is relatively high.
In addition to the proportion of high-income groups, the proportion of low-income groups is also important.
If there is a pattern in which high-income groups account for a relatively high proportion and low-income groups account for a low proportion, it will undoubtedly be the most ideal income structure.
Obviously, our country is still far from such a structure.
The proportion of high-income groups is very low, but the proportion of wealth they own is very high.
Low-income groups account for a high proportion, but have less wealth. This inverted pyramid structure is not conducive to social stability and economic development, and needs to be changed.
From the perspective of the urban-rural gap, China is still a country with a relatively high proportion of the rural population. The income status of rural residents directly determines the quantity and quality of China's middle-income groups.
From the perspective of the personnel structure of middle-income groups, the number of rural middle-income groups is less than half of that of middle-income groups, and the income level of rural middle-income groups is also lower than that of urban middle-income groups.
Therefore, how to effectively increase the number and proportion of rural middle-income groups and improve the income level of rural middle-income groups is also very important.
From the perspective of residents' consumption capacity, whether residents' debts increase or decrease is directly related to residents' consumption capacity and consumption confidence.
The current middle-income group, in terms of assets and liabilities, is not well-structured.
Some data show that more than 70% of residents' household assets are real estate. If fixed assets such as cars and home appliances are deducted, the proportion of current assets that residents really own is relatively low.
And this is precisely the most striking feature of the middle-income group.
How to optimize and improve the asset-liability structure, internal structure of assets, and reduce liabilities of middle-income groups is an important aspect.
Therefore, while advocating "expanding China", actively "expanding China", and striving to "expand China", how to improve the income level, income quality, consumption ability, and consumption expectation of middle-income groups is crucial.