"Dynamic clearing" remains unchanged, why are logistics and aviation stock prices soaring?

　　China-Singapore Jingwei, April 14 (Dong Wenbo Fu Jianqing) A-shares have never been short of hot spots, and the logistics and aviation sectors have been very popular recently.

Under the background of the general policy of "dynamic clearing" in China, why are these two major sectors continuing to be active and the stock prices of individual stocks rising frequently?

Logistics and aviation join hands

　　Since the beginning of this week, the logistics sector has started to rise, and the Flush Logistics Index even hit a record high in intraday trading on April 13; the Wind Smart Logistics Index rose by more than 5% that day.

　　As of the close of trading on April 14, Guanghui Logistics has recorded five consecutive boards, and its stock price has reached a new high of 6.28 yuan; Xinning Logistics has risen by 68.33% this week; Tiewu recorded three daily daily limit within 4 trading days.

　　Source of recent stock price trend of Guanghui Logistics: Wind

　　In addition, Yuanshang shares, Oriental Jiasheng, Changjiang Investment and other stocks have daily limit, Yuantong Express, Hengtong shares, etc. have been active.

　　Not only that, the aviation sector has continued to be active in recent days.

On April 14, A-share airline stocks strengthened throughout the day, and Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Shanghai Airport collectively rose.

In the Hong Kong stock market, Meilan Airport rose by more than 14%, while Air China, China Southern Airlines and Beijing Capital Airport rose 4%.

　　In the U.S. stock market overnight, airline stocks also rose sharply. American Airlines rose more than 10%, Southwest Airlines rose more than 7%, Mesa Airlines and Delta Airlines rose more than 6%, United Airlines and Alaska Airlines rose more than 5%, and Boeing rose. nearly 4%.

　　American Airlines stocks April 13 performance Source: Wind

　　On the news, the performance of American airline stocks is inseparable from a financial report.

On the same day, Delta Air Lines disclosed data that it achieved adjusted operating income of $8.16 billion in the first quarter, higher than market expectations of $8.12 billion; at the same time, Delta Air Lines expected to turn losses into profits in the second quarter, with double-digit revenue growth. , total sales revenue will recover to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

Boosted by this positive data, the sector as a whole "take off".

　　It is worth mentioning that the rally of American airline stocks was so strong that it even withstood the bad news on the epidemic.

　　According to the Associated Press, on April 13, local time, the U.S. government announced that it will extend the nationwide mask order for planes and public transportation by 15 days due to the continued rise in cases of new coronary pneumonia.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it was extending the mask order, which was set to expire on April 18, to May 3 to allow more time to study the mutation of the subtype of Omicron, which now accounts for the vast majority of cases in the U.S. strain.

"Dynamic Clear"

　　In terms of the domestic epidemic, it was reported that from 0-24:00 on April 13, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 3,020 new confirmed cases, including 2,999 local cases, 2,573 in Shanghai, and 325 cases. Located in Jilin; 26,391 new cases of asymptomatic infections were added, including 26,318 local cases, 25,146 cases in Shanghai, and 674 cases in Jilin.

　　The National Health and Medical Commission emphasized that at present, the epidemic is still running at a high level, and the scope of the epidemic has further expanded, and prevention and control is in a critical period.

We must continue to adhere to the general policy of "dynamic clearing" without hesitation or wavering, and implement various prevention and control measures in every link.

　　According to the latest requirements of local epidemic prevention and control policies, in addition to the passenger health code green code, some airports across the country also require passengers to provide a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 48 hours, that is, the scheduled flight departure time minus the nucleic acid report result time (health treasure shows nucleic acid test results) time), less than 48 hours.

　　China Post Securities pointed out that my country will continue to adhere to the general policy of "dynamic clearing", which is conducive to early detection and early treatment, quickly cutting off the transmission of the virus, and ensuring the normal operation of all walks of life.

　　In the context of "dynamic clearing", Yi Bin, chief strategy analyst of the Western Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei that there are three reasons for the rise in the logistics and aviation sectors. In terms of the increase in the number of people, although it is still at a high level, the probability of further deterioration is low; on the other hand, as the decision-makers pay more attention to the domestic epidemic, there will be a high degree of certainty that the epidemic will be effectively controlled in April; third On the other hand, from the perspective of the resumption of the epidemic in 2020, the

.

　　Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the research institute, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that in the aviation sector, mainly because the impact of the epidemic on the global aviation industry has gradually subsided, and the US aviation industry has gradually recovered from the impact of the epidemic. The sector as a whole has played a boost.

　　Xu Xu, chief analyst of the transportation industry of Guohai Securities, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the recent performance of the aviation sector is mainly due to the expectation that the recovery of overseas epidemics will drive the overall recovery. Double logic with elasticity of supply and demand.

　　In terms of the logistics sector, Chen Li said that first, the news has a certain catalytic impact on the sector, including the recent issuance of the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a National Unified Market" and "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the High-quality Development of Cold Chain Logistics and Transportation". and other policies, it is expected that the logistics industry will maintain rapid development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

The second is a series of problems in the supply chain distribution system under the recent epidemic in Shanghai, which shows that my country's logistics system as a whole still has a lot of room for growth. Under the vigorous construction of the logistics system during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the relevant sectors have good prospects and attract funds. Layout on dips.

　　In addition to the above reasons, Wu Yifan, deputy director of Huachuang Securities Research Institute and chief analyst of the transportation industry, also believes that the logistics sector has outperformed the market this week. , it

.

Market fix is ​​just the beginning, stay tuned

　　Regarding the market outlook, Yi Bin believes that with the gradual stabilization of the epidemic situation in Shanghai and China, offline economic recovery will be an important main line of market transactions in the second quarter.

The basic logic of the offline economic recovery path is consistent with the relaxation direction of the prevention and control policy. In various scenarios related to offline recovery, the recovery path follows: express delivery → flow of people, close-range consumption scenarios → long-distance consumption scenarios, required → optional , business travel → entertainment.

From the perspective of the market industry,

.

　　Chen Li said that in the aviation sector, the continuous mutation and outbreak of the new coronavirus will still pose a constant threat to the recovery of China's aviation industry, but in the long run, China's aviation industry is in a growth stage, and the industry is expected to recover quickly after the epidemic. At the same time, epidemic prevention strategies during the epidemic The continuous optimization of the industry will further reduce the impact on the aviation industry. It is

.

　　In terms of logistics sector, Chen Li believes that under the construction of a unified national market, my country's logistics sub-sectors and related infrastructure industries will usher in rapid development, and the sector will have greater room for growth in the future.

　　The team of Cheng Qiang, chief macro analyst of CITIC Securities, believes that the epidemic has gradually increased in provinces since March. Due to the faster spread of Omicron, the epidemic control policy has also become stricter.

However, the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Transport have all emphasized the need to break through traffic jams and help the logistics industry recover to further drive economic growth. It

.

　　CICC Zeng Jingke's team analyzed and pointed out that China's aviation industry is a typical growth cycle industry. Investment depends on residents' income in the long run, industry supply and demand in the medium term, and market expectations in the short term.

　　The team further pointed out that in the short term, market expectations and the inflection point of stock prices are generally 1-2 quarters ahead of the inflection point of supply and demand growth. With the adjustment of policies and the epidemic, the stock price fluctuates upward. It is expected that market expectations are expected to accelerate recovery, and it is recommended to deploy on dips.

In the medium term, the biggest feature of this aviation cycle is that demand is backlogged by short-term variables and supply is tightened globally. Therefore, demand may rebound faster and stronger, while supply may lag longer, and ticket prices may be restored before passenger load factor. The upward momentum will be more sustained.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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