Shanxi, a big coal province, is becoming a microcosm of China's efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
A few days ago, Lin Wu, Secretary of the Shanxi Provincial Party Committee, emphasized in his investigation on the development and utilization of geothermal resources in Taiyuan and Datong, that the "dual-carbon" goal should be used as the lead to deepen the energy revolution, actively promote the construction of geothermal resources exploration and development and utilization projects, and promote clean and low-carbon energy. The development of carbon and renewable energy provides strong support for promoting high-quality development in an all-round way.
This demonstrates Shanxi's determination in transformation and upgrading and low-carbon development.
At present, this large province with rich coal resources has begun to develop new energy fields such as geothermal energy, wind energy and photovoltaics.
Behind this is the carbon reduction anxiety of large energy output provinces.
If it is soft, it will not be able to achieve the goal, and if it is hard, it will hurt the traditional "rice bowl".
According to estimates by domestic institutions, without considering factors such as the national unified market and regional division of labor, Shanxi’s carbon dioxide emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement are 15 times the rated amount calculated from factors such as its economy, ecology, and population.
Although this calculation has not been adopted by relevant state departments, it has sounded the alarm for Shanxi's carbon reduction from another aspect.
If we do not make great efforts to adjust the industrial structure and carry out low-carbon development, the huge development advantages from energy will also be wiped out.
Shanxi Governor Lan Foan wrote in an article in early March that: Shanxi should strengthen energy-saving and low-carbon technology research, promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas, and continue to expand green GDP with low energy consumption and low emissions.
Dilemma: Shanxi has a huge gap in carbon emissions
Since September 2020, China has clearly proposed the goals of "carbon peaking" in 2030 and "carbon neutrality" in 2060, carbon reduction has become an unavoidable topic.
This also made Shanxi, a major coal province, begin to think about a new development path.
In the first half of 2021, an academic report published in the Journal of Natural Resources once again stirred Shanxi's nervous nerves.
This paper, titled "Research on Provincial Allocation of China's Carbon Emission Rights and Emission Reduction Potential Assessment under the Paris Agreement" is a youth project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China "Research on the Provincial Allocation of China's Agricultural Carbon Emission Rights and Coordinated Emission Reduction Strategies under the Paris Agreement" an important research result.
After model building and data analysis, the paper believes that factors such as population, regional gross domestic product, carbon productivity, forest volume, and crop sown area are the decisive factors for a place's carbon emission right.
Among them, the weight of forest stock is 38.93%, the weight of regional GDP is 17.4%, the weight of crop sown area is 16.40%, the weight of carbon productivity is 13.89%, and the weight of working population is 13.38%.
As a result, the calculated result is that in 2017, Shanxi's carbon emission rights were only 59.1 million tons, accounting for 0.44% of the country's 13.49 billion tons, ranking second to last in the country.
This research report further estimates that in 2017, Shanxi's carbon emissions reached 911.8 million tons, accounting for 6.76% of the country's total.
The first author of this paper, Associate Professor Tian Yun from Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, told the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter that the study did not consider factors such as the national unified market and regional division of labor, but as the study itself, it has a strict proof basis.
The person in charge of a carbon trading network revealed to the Shell Finance reporter that the carbon emission rights and carbon emissions of various places and companies are currently not public, but he also said that the calculations of various research institutions are not without basis and are worth reference.
The reporter of Shell Finance and Economics gathered the public information of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and learned that the current carbon emission quotas obtained by enterprises are determined by the benchmark method, that is, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment determines a benchmark line based on the historical carbon emission intensity of the industry, and determines the company's production capacity based on the company's production capacity. carbon credits.
While the country is conducting local pilot projects for carbon emission trading in 8 provinces and cities, it only includes the power generation industry, a major carbon emitter, into the national carbon market, involving 2,162 enterprises and carbon dioxide emissions reaching 4.6 billion tons.
Among them, there are 119 power companies in Shanxi, accounting for about 7% of the carbon emissions of the national power industry, ranking third in the country.
A person familiar with the matter told Shell Finance reporters that when reporting historical emissions, due to fear, Shanxi electric power companies generally have the phenomenon of lowering data, so that the carbon emission benchmark is artificially lowered, and the phenomenon of carbon deficiency in Shanxi enterprises is very common.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, many companies paid a high price to buy carbon emission credits because of energy supply.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to December 2021, Shanxi Province's power generation was 373.44 billion kWh, a cumulative increase of 8.9%, and the power generation accounted for about 4.6% of the country's total.
Among them, the thermal power generation is 320.57 billion kWh, accounting for about 85.84% of the power generation in Shanxi Province and about 3.95% of the national power generation.
According to the current statistical method, thermal power needs to emit 0.785 kg of carbon dioxide per kWh of electricity, while Shanxi needs to emit about 250 million tons of carbon dioxide for 320.57 billion kWh of electricity.
This is still a relatively large proportion in the country.
Gao Jianfeng, head of the third research department of the Shanxi Academy of Social Sciences (Provincial Development Research Center), previously stated publicly in the media that whether Shanxi companies "buy carbon" or "sell carbon" mainly depends on carbon prices, carbon emission reduction costs, and carbon emissions. Economic benefits after the cost of abatement is included.
The money that enterprises earn after selling products through buying carbon allowances can cover the cost of carbon emission reduction and make money, so they might as well “buy carbon”; if there is a good market expectation through technological transformation, “selling carbon” will also no problem.
In fact, the power industry is the foundation of the national economy, and if there is a need, even "buying carbon" must ensure energy supply.
What we must face is that, regardless of whether Shanxi is based on professional academic calculations or realistic carbon emission benchmarks, the carbon emission quotas allocated by Shanxi are very tight compared with the huge industrial needs. Transformation and upgrading and low-carbon development are already on the horizon. , had to post.
Pressure: In the face of the "dual carbon" goal, how can the policy be "soft and hard"?
On March 7, the Governor of Shanxi Province, Lan Foan, wrote in the "Study Times" that: Shanxi is rich in coal resources, with coal-bearing area accounting for about 40% of the province's total area, and proven reserves accounting for about 1/3 of the country's total.
After years of development, Shanxi's coal production capacity has reached 1.36 billion tons, advanced production capacity accounts for more than 75%, and the total installed power generation capacity has reached 115.91 million kilowatts.
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, Shanxi's coal output has accumulated to 22.5 billion tons, and about 15 billion tons of coal has been transferred from other provinces, with a net output of 1.47 trillion kilowatt-hours, which has made a significant contribution to ensuring national energy security and supporting national modernization.
However, the energy-exporting province is also facing emission reduction anxiety.
Some Shanxi environmental officials told Shell Finance reporters that in the face of their own situation and the current situation, Shanxi's "dual carbon" strategy is really difficult to handle.
In accordance with the "Measures for the Administration of Carbon Emissions Trading (for Trial Implementation)", which will be implemented on February 1, 2021, the national carbon emission rights registration agency will record the holding, change and clearing of carbon emission allowances through the national carbon emission rights registration system. Payment, cancellation and other information, and provide settlement services.
Enterprises that belong to the industries covered by the national carbon emission rights trading market and whose annual greenhouse gas emissions reach 26,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent will be listed as key greenhouse gas emission units.
Only the thermal power industry is currently included in the carbon emissions trading market, accounting for about 44% of the total carbon emissions.
However, industrial production, construction, and transportation are also important sources of carbon emissions, accounting for about 40% of total carbon emissions.
At present, Zhejiang, Chongqing and other places have taken measures to encourage the "6+1" key industries of electric power, steel, coking, chemical industry, building materials, non-ferrous metals and coal to achieve the "dual carbon" goal.
Analysts pointed out that these key industries just cover Shanxi's traditional industries. As the country accelerates the pace of incorporating these industries into the national carbon emissions trading market, Shanxi will eventually face the severe challenge of "dual carbon" development.
The relevant staff of the Shanxi Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment told Shell Finance reporters that Shanxi has completed the carbon reduction task issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, and Shanxi's specific action plan around the "double carbon" goal has not been finalized.
Shanxi Governor Lan Foan pointed out in the above article: At present and in the future, coal is still the main energy source in my country.
Energy supply guarantee is always a major event related to the overall economic and social development and the vital interests of the people... In the future, we will promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy, accelerate the increase in unconventional natural gas reserves and production, and actively and orderly develop wind energy, solar energy, and biomass energy. , geothermal energy, hydrogen energy and other new energy sources, accelerate the construction of clean energy bases, and further enhance the support and guarantee capabilities for national energy security and macroeconomic stability.
However, Lan Foan, Governor of Shanxi Province, also proposed in the above-mentioned article: to force the transformation with the goal of "double carbon".
He said: Adhere to the system concept, correctly handle the major relationship between development and emission reduction, overall and partial, long-term and short-term goals, government and market, and incorporate the "dual-carbon" work into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction and the overall economic and social development situation. Carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth will be promoted in coordination, speed up the formulation of Shanxi's "dual carbon" work implementation opinions and carbon peaking implementation plans, and improve the green and low-carbon policy system.
Adhere to reducing energy consumption intensity and improving energy efficiency as the main focus and main direction of attack, further improve the energy consumption "dual control" system, improve the "dual carbon" standard, resolutely curb the blind development of high energy consumption, high emission and low level projects, and promote energy consumption. Change from "double control" of consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity.
Strengthen energy-saving and low-carbon technology research, promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas, and continuously expand green GDP with low energy consumption and low emissions.
Exploration: Opening up a broader perspective on carbon reduction
"Life consumption is often overlooked, and carbon emissions are definitely not limited to carbon dioxide," Fan Wenbin, president of the Shanxi Environmental Protection Industry Association, told the Shell Finance reporter, "Strictly speaking, it should be carbon dioxide equivalent carbon emissions."
In the "Measures for the Administration of Carbon Emissions Trading (Trial)", the definition of "carbon emission" is given: it refers to the combustion activities and industrial production processes of fossil energy such as coal, oil and natural gas, as well as land use change and forestry, etc. Greenhouse gas emissions from activities also include greenhouse gas emissions from the use of purchased electricity and heat.
Greenhouse gases here refer to natural and man-made gaseous components in the atmosphere that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride and trifluoride nitrogen.
Fan Wenbin said that in Shanxi and even the whole country, when it comes to carbon emissions, people often think of only carbon dioxide emissions, but in Shanxi, the emissions of methane gas due to coal mining should not be underestimated.
The greenhouse effect of methane gas is more than 20 times that of carbon dioxide.
In order to liberate carbon emissions from the shackles of carbon dioxide and open a wider perspective for carbon emission reduction, Shanxi Environmental Protection Industry Association, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Paris Climate Agreement and the specific requirements of ISO 14064, launched the "GHG Polycarbonate Carbon Work Rules".
Ma Guorong, Secretary-General of Shanxi Environmental Protection Industry Association, explained that GHG is a greenhouse gas, and ISO 14064 stipulates the best international greenhouse gas data and data management, reporting and verification model, so that the calculation of the uncertainty of emission declarations is unified in the world.
Tian Huarong, an environmental worker of the association, told Shell Finance reporter that the "GHG Carbon Polycarbonate Work Rules" defines all behaviors that generate greenhouse gases, and extends the carbon reduction policy currently in the field of production (power generation) to all production behaviors , and finally reach everyone's consumption scene.
In this way, carbon reduction is closely related to every organization and individual.
In order to popularize this green and low-carbon life concept, they conducted experiments in their association office.
Shell Finance reporters saw that the office is decorated with environmentally friendly materials, the lights that can not be turned on are not turned on, the temperature of the air conditioner is lowered or the air conditioner is turned off, the computer is turned off at any time when not in use, and disposable cups, plates and tableware are never used. transportation.
They go to the member units of the association for counseling, and strive for more organizations and individuals to join such actions.
Shell Finance reporters found that the introduction of low carbon into life has blossomed in many places across the country.
Guangdong Province has been piloting a carbon-inclusive platform since 2015. Some payment platforms and map software have also launched sports carbon reduction and public transport red envelopes, and a number of "zero-carbon" mini-programs have also been launched.
Under the carbon inclusive mechanism, the carbon reduction behaviors of organizations and individuals will generate real value and can obtain economic benefits.
Not only that, the "dual carbon" goal is also awakening the development of the carbon reduction industry.
Shanxi Ruicheng Dashenghuan Technology Co., Ltd. is a sewage treatment company. After communicating with the Shanxi Environmental Protection Industry Association, it discovered the problem of greenhouse gas emissions in the sewage treatment process, and began to establish a carbon footprint for sewage treatment.
Some industry insiders also told Shell Finance reporters that the current service industries derived from carbon reduction, such as carbon trading, carbon footprinting, carbon finance, carbon inclusiveness, and carbon training, seem to be more sought after business attributes than carbon reduction itself, and platforms and institutions focus on In order to compete for the market cake, these urgently need to be regulated.
Shell Finance reporters found that it is particularly important to regulate and guide the healthy development of carbon reduction derivative industries while awakening the organization's individual carbon reduction awareness and promoting carbon reduction actions.
For Shanxi, the most important thing is to persevere in promoting the energy revolution, improve the comprehensive energy production capacity and increase the green GDP in accordance with the national deployment.
Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Bai Huabing