When will the Japanese economy return to pre-Corona levels at 19:24 on February 1st?
In February 2020, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan during the Chinese New Year holidays has decreased due to the spread of "new pneumonia" in China.
Duty-free sales during consecutive holidays, which coincided with the Chinese New Year of department stores in Japan, fell.
This is exactly what happened a year ago.
After that, the Japanese economy was swallowed up by the spread of infection called "corona sickness".
When will the Japanese economy escape the corona epidemic and return to pre-infection levels?
NHK conducted a questionnaire to 100 domestic companies and summarized the results.
From the answers received from each company, we will understand the "current location" and "future" of Japanese companies that are affected by infection.
(Economics Department Reporter Yosuke Ikegawa)
[Questionnaire of 100 major companies]
・ Implementation period December 23, 2020-January 15, 2021
・ Implementation method WEB questionnaire
・ Target 100 domestic companies (answers received from all companies)
Is it impossible to recover in 2021?
Q. When do you expect the Japanese economy to return to pre-infection levels?
The
most common answer was "the
time to return to the pre-infection level
" of 27 companies in the first half of 2022.
This is followed by 19 companies in the latter half of 2022.
The total of the two answers is 46 companies.
Nearly half think that it will return to Corona next year.
The next most common was "late 2023" with 12 companies.
There are 7 companies in both "late 2021" and "early 2023".
Including the answers "2024" and "after 2025", 70% of the companies think that it will take at least one year for the Japanese economy to recover.
We can see the company's belief that the effects of corona will be prolonged and it will not be easy to return to the original level.
★ Here is a free-form comment from the companies that answered "2022", which was the most common, as to what they think about the relationship between infection control and economic activities.
"The current situation of prioritizing compatibility or economic activities has led to the spread of infection. Corona will not converge with half-hearted policies. First of all, we should do our best to spread infection." (Late 2022 / Retail)
"Infection It is necessary to strike a balance between the two without being biased toward either measures or economic activities, and to ensure the health and maintenance of people's lives. In light of virus mutations and changes in people's consciousness and lifestyles. I think it is necessary to change policies flexibly and swiftly. ”(First half of 2022 / Finance)
“ The fight against infectious diseases will continue for a long time, so if you seek perfection against infections,
financial
damage will become an issue ”(2022 Late year / Trading company)
★ What are the voices of companies that answered "2023", which is a more cautious view than 2022?
"There is also the expectation of the vaccine, but because the vaccine has been to take several years to be able to acquire a herd immunity spreads enough, the viewpoint of both eye to the long war is important" (2023 first half / energy)
"serious person It is unavoidable to reduce demand stimulus measures such as the Go To campaign in the midst of increasing concerns about the tightening of the medical system. ”(Late 2023 / Finance)
Will the economy expand in half a year?
During the period of this survey, a state of emergency was issued by the government to prevent the spread of the new corona.
How did it affect each company's perception of the current state of the economy?
Q. How do you perceive the current state of the domestic economy?
Please choose the one that is closest to you.
41 companies answered "flat".
35 companies are "gradual expansion".
None of the companies answered "expansion",
followed by "gradual retreat" and "regression"
.
When asked the reasons for "moderate expansion" in multiple answers, the
most
common answer
was "recovery of the Chinese economy" at 51.4%.
"Growth in personal consumption" was 48.6%.
“Resumption of economic activity” was 45.7%.
"Government economic measures" was 42.9%.
As for the reasons for "flattening",
80.5%
answered
"sluggish growth in personal consumption"
and 61%
answered
"refrain from going out or requesting shortening of business hours", and
these two answers were the overwhelming majority.
There are many voices concerned about the effects of the spread of infection, which has cooled consumption, and the shortened business hours of restaurants due to the state of emergency.
So what do companies see as the economy in half a year?
Q. How do you see the domestic economy six months later (around June 2021) compared to the present?
Please choose the one that is closest to you.
"Slow expansion" accounted for nearly 70%.
When asked the reasons for this in multiple answers, the most common were "growth in personal consumption" and "resumption of economic activity," both of which accounted for 65% of the total.
It seems that many companies expect the economy to recover if the infection gradually subsides, such as when vaccination begins.
Does the Olympics hold the key?
Whether the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics can be held this summer as scheduled will also have a major impact on the recovery of the Japanese economy.
Q. Do you think the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics should be held in the summer of 2021?
The largest number of 48 companies answered that they should hold the event on a smaller scale.
Almost half.
13 companies "should be held in a form close to normal".
When these two are combined, about 60% answered that they should be held this summer in some way.
★ What is the reason for the companies that answered "should be held"?
"Since it is expected to contribute to the economic recovery by stimulating diversified domestic demand, we expect that the event will be held after sufficient measures against infection" (reduced holding / energy)
"Recovery of personal consumption and inbound demand We hope that it will help boost the economy and set a precedent for anti-virus measures at large-scale international events such as the 2013 Osaka Expo. ”(Reduced holding / infrastructure / construction)
★ Three companies answered that they should not hold the event.
"The traffic of people from overseas in a situation where the corona has not completely converged is a huge risk, so we should consider re-postponing it." (Manufacturer)
★ In the questionnaire, there were 36 companies that did not answer.
You can also see the "feelings" of each company that it is difficult to judge whether the event will boost the economy or focus on preventing the spread of infection.
"In view of the economic effects of the Olympic Games and the feelings of the Japanese people, it is desirable to be able to hold the event on the scale originally planned this summer, but careful judgment should be made based on the status of the new corona infection." (Manufacturer)
What about new graduate recruitment?
The recruitment plan for new graduates has a great deal to do with the economy and corporate performance.
We asked him what he thinks about hiring university graduates who are scheduled to join the company in the spring of 2022 compared to the previous year.
Q. How have the number of university graduate hires scheduled to join the company in the spring of 2021 compared to the previous year?
Q. I would like to ask about the university graduate recruitment plan that you plan to join in the spring of 2022.
How do you feel about the number of hires compared to the previous year?
The graph on the left is the recruitment record for this year.
The graph on the right is the recruitment plan for joining the company in the spring of 2022.
More than half of the companies answered that they have not yet decided on a hiring plan for joining the company in the spring of 2022.
Next, "no change" accounts for 30%.
With the outlook uncertain in Corona, it may be difficult to decide on a hiring plan for college graduates to join next year at the time of the survey.
Of the 56 companies that answered "I haven't decided yet", 28 companies answered that the results for this year, that is, this spring, "decreased", and 23 companies answered that they did not change.
What kind of hiring policy will companies that have reduced the number of employees joining this spring take in preparation for joining the company in the spring of 2022?
According to the questionnaire, 70% of companies think that the economy will expand "moderately" six months later, but in reality, it seems that it will depend on the influence of Corona.
Reporter of the Ministry of Economic Affairs
Yosuke Ikegawa
Joined the
station in
2002
After working at the Sendai station and Yamagata station
(Responding companies, in alphabetical order)
IHI, Asahi Kasei, Asahi Group Holdings, Ajinomoto, Aeon, Isuzu Motors, Idemitsu Kosan, ITOCHU, Internet Initiative, AGC, ANA Holdings, SG Holdings, ENEOS Holdings, Oji Holdings, Kao, Kajima Construction, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Canon, Kyocera, Kirin Holdings, KDDI, Kobe Steel, Komatsu Ltd., Cyber Agent, JFE Holdings, JTB, J. Front Retailing, Shiseido, Shimizu Construction, Sharp, Shosen Mitsui, Sukai Raku Holdings, Suzuki, SUBARU, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Metal Mine, Sumitomo Corporation, Seibu Holdings, Seven & i Holdings, Zensho Holdings, Sony, Daiwa Securities Group Headquarters, Takeda Pharmaceutical Industry, Chubu Electric Power, Tsuruha Holdings, DNA, Denso, Tokai Passenger Railway , Tokio Marine Holdings, Tokyo Gas, Tokyo Electric Power Holdings, Toshiba, Toray, Letterpress Printing, Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor, Nippon Paper, Nippon Steel, Nippon Electric, Nippon Airlines, Japan Life Insurance, Nippon Densan, Nippon Telegraph Telephone, Nintendo , Nomura Holdings, Hakuhodo, Panasonic, East Japan Passenger Railway, Hitachi Construction Machinery, Hitachi, Big Camera, First Retailing, Family Mart, Fujitsu, Fuji Film Holdings, Bridgestone, Mazda, Marelli, Mizuho Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Mitsui Bussan, Mitsui Fudosan, Mitsukoshi Isetan Holdings, Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings, Mitsubishi Motors, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Corporation, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Murata Seisakusho, Meiji, Mercari, Mos Food Service, Yahoo, Yamato Holdings, Yamaha Motor, Uni・ Charm, Rakuten, Recruit Holdings, Lawson