Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 20 (International Observation) U.S. withdrawal deadline is approaching, the prospects for peace in Afghanistan are unknown

　　Xinhua News Agency reporter Leo Shi Xiantao

　　The Afghan Taliban warned the United States on the 19th not to violate its commitment to withdraw troops from Afghanistan before May 1, or the Taliban will react.

The day before, the multi-party talks on Afghanistan were held in Moscow, Russia. Representatives from the Afghan government, the Taliban, Russia, the United States, China, and Pakistan participated in the talks.

　　Analysts pointed out that as the deadline for the withdrawal of the United States is approaching, the concerns of Afghanistan and the international community about the direction of the situation in Afghanistan have also intensified.

If the United States withdraws its troops as planned, and the two parties to the conflict in Afghanistan cannot reach a peace agreement in time, the country’s future security situation may further deteriorate.

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　　The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs pointed out that the current multi-party talks on Afghanistan are aimed at advancing Afghan internal dialogue, pushing for a ceasefire and combating terrorism and drug crimes.

　　During the talks on the 18th, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said: "The casualties on both sides of the conflict in Afghanistan continue to increase, and casualties among ordinary people continue to increase. The Islamic State is trying to use the current situation to consolidate its power in the country. Expresses serious concerns."

　　Russia calls on the U.S. and the Taliban to abide by the peace agreement signed in Doha, Qatar, last February.

The Russian side believes that, as the current situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating, the negotiation process cannot be delayed any longer.

　　The four countries of Russia, the United States, China and Pakistan issued a joint statement after the conclusion of the talks on the 18th, urging the two parties in the conflict in Afghanistan to negotiate a peace agreement to end the long-term war.

The statement called on both sides of the conflict in Afghanistan to reduce violence and called on the Taliban not to launch spring and summer offensives.

The statement stated that the four countries are willing to provide political and economic support to Afghanistan after the peace agreement is reached.

　　The Taliban delegation member Suhail Shaheen warned at a press conference in Moscow on the 19th that if the U.S. military does not withdraw from Afghanistan after May 1, the U.S. will violate the Doha Agreement and the Taliban will respond to it.

Shaheen also stated that the four countries have declared that they do not support the re-establishment of the "Islamic Emirate" in Afghanistan, which the Taliban cannot accept.

　　Can the US military withdraw as scheduled?

　　The Afghan Taliban declared the establishment of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" after they captured Kabul in 1996.

In 2001, the United States launched the war in Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban regime.

Since then, the Taliban have continued to fight with the United States-led NATO coalition forces in Afghanistan and the Afghan government forces.

The Associated Press reported that the war in Afghanistan that lasted for nearly 20 years has become the most protracted war in American history. The United States has spent nearly $1 trillion for this, and the Taliban still control about half of Afghanistan.

　　Omar Nesar, director of the Research Center for Contemporary Afghanistan in Russia, said that the Moscow talks are aimed at promoting the Afghan peace process. The Afghan government and the Taliban can use this opportunity to conduct direct dialogues and conduct face-to-face consultations on the differences between the two sides in the Doha peace talks. .

　　The United States and the Afghan Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha last February to end the war in Afghanistan.

According to the agreement, all foreign troops stationed in Afghanistan will be withdrawn within 14 months.

The Taliban promised not to make Afghanistan a safe haven for terrorists.

The Afghan government and the Taliban delegation have held negotiations in Doha since September last year, but the negotiations have never achieved a major breakthrough, and the violent conflicts in Afghanistan have not stopped.

　　Niesar believes that it is still unclear whether the United States can withdraw its troops from Afghanistan as scheduled before May 1.

On the one hand, the United States will require all parties concerned to continue to implement the Doha Agreement.

On the other hand, the US is also aware that there is little time left and it is difficult to complete the withdrawal on schedule.

Therefore, the US will continue to exert pressure on both sides of the conflict in Afghanistan, while at the same time seeking to redefine the possibility of withdrawal.

　　In an interview with ABC recently, US President Biden talked about the withdrawal plan of the US troops in Afghanistan.

He said that completing the evacuation before May 1 is "possible but difficult."

　The future situation is not optimistic

　　The parties involved in the Afghanistan issue will hold talks in Turkey next month.

The international community has been actively organizing relevant talks recently. The US Secretary of State Brinken also sent a letter to Afghan President Ghani a few days ago, proposing a plan to accelerate the peace process in Afghanistan.

Analysts believe that the main purpose of this series of actions is to promote the two parties in the conflict in Afghanistan to step up negotiations and strive to reach an early peace agreement to avoid further deterioration of the situation in Afghanistan.

　　However, the Afghan government has clearly expressed its opposition to the plan proposed by the United States to form the transitional government of Afghanistan.

Ghani said on the 16th that holding a general election is the only way to transition power in Afghanistan.

"If it were not through elections, we would not transfer power to the successor."

　　The Taliban also said they would not join the transitional government.

At present, its main demand is that the United States should abide by the agreement and withdraw its troops from Afghanistan on schedule.

　　The Afghan public opinion pointed out that the Afghan government hopes that the Biden administration will review the Doha agreement signed by the Trump administration and the Taliban and not withdraw its troops until the Taliban keeps their promises.

Otherwise, the Afghan government may collapse and the civil war will intensify.