Chinanews Client Beijing, January 5th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Rising!
rise!
rise!
Before December 2020, you might not have imagined that a small piece of paper can rise to the speed of a "rocket".
Paper companies set off a wave of price increases
As the new year is approaching, KPIs are being used for food.
Following the hot search on "pork price rebound", the recent "price increase of tissue paper in many places across the country" has also rushed into hot searches.
According to media reports, less than 10 days after some paper companies issued the first wave of price increase letters on December 7, 2020, enterprises in Shaanxi, Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and other places successively issued the second wave of price increase letters, generally "upping 200 yuan/ton".
Since then, Guangxi paper companies, the main producer of bagasse pulp tissue paper, also announced price increases.
Household paper ushered in three consecutive rises in one month, "Are we going to grab paper towels?" Some netizens commented.
Data map: Paper towels and other daily necessities hoarded by a second-born mother.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Chao
In fact, not only household paper, but also cultural paper has also increased in price.
In November 2020, leading paper companies, including APP, Sun, Chenming, Huatai, etc., issued price increase letters one after another, raising the price of their own cultural paper by 200 yuan/ton, which will be implemented in December 2020.
After sorting out, this is not the first price increase of cultural paper this year.
Since August 2020, paper companies have frequently issued price increase letters, and some coated paper products have increased their prices by about 600-800 yuan/ton so far.
Affected by the upgraded "plastic restriction order", white cardboard prices also rebounded significantly.
According to the research report of Zhongtai Securities, as of November 21, 2020, the average price of white cardboard was 6713 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.6% from the beginning of the year and an increase of about 30% from the lowest point in the year.
Why are the prices of paper and tissues rising?
From the perspective of the industry, the main reason is that the price of raw material pulp has increased, which has led to increased papermaking costs.
According to statistics from China Paper Association, in November 2020, the total pulp price index rose by 3.04% month-on-month to 93.00 points, and the total volume index rose by 0.36% month-on-month to 74.66 points.
In terms of raw materials, the price increase of paper and paper towels is closely related to wood pulp.
According to data, the paper pulp currently on the market is mainly divided into three types: wood pulp, non-wood pulp and waste paper pulp.
Among them, the raw materials such as coated paper and white cardboard are mainly wood pulp, and the raw materials of household paper are mostly wood pulp. The use of bamboo pulp and bagasse pulp is gradually increasing.
Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Chang Junting introduced to a reporter from Chinanews.com that China's wood pulp import dependence rate is above 60%. China's softwood pulp imports fell by 1.44% in the first 11 months of 2020. Global softwood pulp was shipped to China in November. In terms of domestic wood pulp, the output of hardwood pulp from January to November 2020 increased by 2.40% year-on-year, and the output of chemical mechanical pulp increased by 11.03% year-on-year, but in November, hardwood pulp, The output of chemical machinery pulp fell by 3.78% and 3.29% respectively from the previous month, and the supply was also slightly tightened.
In terms of non-wood pulp, “in November 2020, bamboo pulp manufacturers will focus on maintenance, and the monthly start load is 41%, down 6 percentage points from October. The stock of pulp mills has fallen. In December, the inventory pressure of pulp mills is not strong, and the cost of raw bamboo chips will increase. And so on, bamboo pulp manufacturers increase the disk size by 200-400 yuan/ton." Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Geng Sai pointed out.
Data map: In April 2020, workers from a company were sorting out toilet paper to be exported.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Qu Honglun
As for the price increase of bagasse pulp tissue paper mentioned above, Geng Sai explained to reporters that the bagasse stocking season began at the end of November 2020, and the operation of pulp mills has improved. However, the price of bagasse, the raw material of sugarcane pulp, has increased by 20% compared with the previous year. The pressure increased, and the price of imported wood pulp was superimposed. In late December, the price of sugarcane pulp wet pulp was raised by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the price of pulp board was raised by 100-300 yuan/ton.
"Pulp prices are rising. If paper prices cannot rise simultaneously, the downstream raw paper gross profit may decrease. This is more obvious in cultural paper." Chang Junting said.
The price hikes of paper and tissues that started at the end of 2020 were also affected by the cessation of production capacity under environmental protection policies, the suspension of machine-made paper equipment at the end of the year, and the rise in pulp futures.
Straight Flush data shows that as of 12:00 on December 31, 2020, the latest major pulp futures contract reported 5626 yuan/ton, up 3.23%.
Under the "ban on waste", the price of waste paper also rose sharply
In addition to cultural paper and household paper, under the leadership of leading packaging paper companies such as Nine Dragons, corrugated paper, box paper, white paper and other packaging papers have also been reported to increase prices.
Nine Dragons Paper's first and second largest production bases also announced shutdown arrangements for the ultra-long Spring Festival.
Under the dual big move of "downtime + price increase", the price hike of cardboard is also coming.
Utilizable waste paper is mainly used to produce boxboard, corrugated, whiteboard, etc., to supply downstream packaging needs.
Unlike wood pulp, two-thirds of waste paper sources are domestic waste paper and one third is imported waste paper.
Packaging paper manufacturers have raised prices one after another, and the "ban on scrap" is a major factor.
In July 2017, the State Council issued the "Implementation Plan for Prohibiting the Entry of Foreign Waste to Promote the Reform of the Solid Waste Import Management System", which greatly reduced the types and quantities of imports.
With the tightening of import quotas, China's imports of waste paper show a downward trend.
Statistics show that in 2016, the amount of domestic waste paper imported was about 28 million tons, accounting for more than 35% of domestic waste paper consumption.
By 2019, the volume of imported waste paper will be reduced to more than 10 million tons, while from January to October 2020, the volume of imported waste paper will be only more than 5 million tons.
Data map: Shanghai Waigaoqiao Port Customs returns waste cardboard.
Photo by Zhao Fangxiao
While imports of waste paper have decreased, domestic waste paper prices have risen.
According to media reports, the first-class waste containerboard paper was basically stable at around 1,200 yuan/ton before 2017, and began to fluctuate and rise in 2017, and the current price basically maintains above 2,000 yuan/ton.
In November 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Commerce, and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued the "Announcement on the Total Prohibition of the Import of Solid Waste", expressly prohibiting the import of solid waste in any way, starting from January 1, 2021 Implement.
Under the "zero import" of waste paper, paper mills have increased their raw material inventories, which has driven the price of waste paper to accelerate.
"Different types of waste paper have different purchase prices. Now the purchase price of one ton of waste paper is concentrated between 1500-2000 yuan." A staff member of a waste paper packing station in Beijing told reporters, "Good types of waste paper have increased relatively A lot, one ton has risen by more than 100 yuan recently."
Chang Junting said, “Under the influence of zero imports of waste paper at the end of the year, the shortage of packaging paper raw materials stimulated domestic and foreign pulp mills to switch to natural pulp, which indirectly supported the price of softwood pulp, which in turn increased the pressure on the cost of downstream household paper to a certain extent.”
"Luoyang Paper Expensive" is going to be
staged
?
"Currently, the price of tissues in the supermarket has not risen, and some products are still on sale." A resident told reporters.
"The rise in the price of household paper is also carried out in the market ring by ring. Raw paper companies first began to adjust prices. After downstream processing plants, the end market (such as supermarkets, e-commerce platforms, etc.) responded relatively lagging behind, and the price of raw paper was adjusted more frequently. Adjusted in ton, even if the terminal is the same as the increase, it is implemented on the finished paper of each retail unit, the increase is not obvious, and there are still irregular promotions in some markets." Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst Yin Tingxiang The reporter said.
According to media reports, in order to sink the balance of supply and demand in the market, the Hebei factory rushed to directly supply paper towels at affordable prices and started the "defense war" of paper towels.
It is understood that Baoding, Hebei occupies nearly 30% of the national tissue market share.
Data map: On April 24, workers of a paper company inspecting the quality of the toilet paper production line.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Qu Honglun
As for packaging paper, the price increase of upstream paper products has indeed led to increased cost pressures in the downstream packaging industry.
“Recently, the price of the packaging paper used by the company has risen a bit, about 100-200 yuan per ton.” A staff member of Dagong Paper Packaging (Beijing) Co., Ltd. told a reporter from Chinanews.com that due to the increase in purchase prices, the cost of the company’s products has increased. Profits have been compressed.
"However, the company's products have not raised prices at present, and it is hard to say whether there are plans to raise prices in the future." The above-mentioned staff member said.
In order to make up for the shortage of waste paper raw materials, some large paper mills have begun to build their own waste paper recycling stations, or cooperate with large-scale waste paper recycling companies in the region to establish transfer warehouses.
Some paper-making companies also process waste paper into semi-finished pulp and import it into China by building factories overseas.
"2020 is the peak period for leading papermaking companies to put into production, and new capacity in 2021 is expected to contribute to production throughout the year." CICC research report believes that with better demand and rising raw material prices, the paper industry is expected to see an upward trend in 2021. The price centers of cardboard, white cardboard, and cultural paper are all expected to usher in a year-on-year improvement.
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