(Year-end Economic Observation) Housing prices enter the "10,000 yuan era" Five trends may become the driving force for the steady development of the property market

　　China News Service, Beijing, December 24th. Title: Housing prices have entered the "10,000 yuan era". Five trends may become the driving force for the steady development of the property market

　　China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji

　　In 2020, the Chinese property market will recover more than expected.

As of November, the average sales price of commercial housing has entered the "10,000 yuan era", and the sales area of ​​commercial housing is also expected to reach a new high.

In 2021, China's economy will continue its steady recovery. Experts in the industry believe that the following five new trends may become the main source of power for the steady development of the property market next year.

Data map: Aerial photography of a real estate in Yuhuatai District, Nanjing.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Bo

Fully implement the long-term real estate mechanism

　　The recent National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference proposed that next year’s key tasks include: the steady implementation of the real estate long-term mechanism plan to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

The meeting proposed to fully implement the long-term real estate mechanism (next year), strengthen the main responsibility of the city, and improve the policy coordination, control linkage, monitoring and early warning, public opinion guidance, market supervision and other mechanisms.

　　The industry believes that this means that the real estate long-term mechanism program has moved from "paper" to reality.

　　According to incomplete statistics, in the second half of 2020, the regulatory policies will shift. 19 cities including Hangzhou, Shenyang, Xi'an and Ningbo have successively upgraded their regulation, focusing on five aspects including purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, sales restrictions and increased real estate transaction taxes and fees.

　　These regulatory tools will continue to be used in the future.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that in addition, four major price supervision systems are expected to be formed in the future, including a second-hand housing price, rental market price and land price supervision system.

The real estate industry has entered the stage of "stabilizing leverage" or "deleveraging"

　　In 2020, real estate financial risks are highly valued, and new financing regulations for real estate enterprises, known as the "three red lines", are introduced.

The industry believes that this may mark the end of the era of high leverage expansion of real estate companies.

　　Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, believes that the real estate financing policy tends to be tightened, and the focus is to control the growth rate of interest-bearing debt of real estate companies.

At present, financing channels such as bank loans, bonds, and non-standard have been narrowed, and the cash flow of real estate companies will rely more on sales returns.

　　In addition to the real estate development side, the Crane Research Center believes that the residential sector still needs to stabilize leverage to ensure that the leverage ratio and debt ratio of residents will not continue to rise.

Hot cities do not rule out the possibility of upgrading loan restrictions. Stressed cities may moderately relax loan restrictions, but they will not exceed the scope of the limited loan policy framework.

　　At the same time, some key regulatory directions this year will continue.

Such as: strengthening the supervision of house purchase funds, prohibiting down payment loans, consumer loans, business loans and other illegal misappropriation for house purchase consumption.

The development of housing leasing norms

　　This year's Central Economic Work Conference covered real estate-related fields with a larger length, and the "protagonist" was housing leasing.

In the context of high housing prices, the development of rental housing has become an effective way to solve the outstanding problems of housing in big cities.

　　Since then, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference also pointed out that in 2021, we must vigorously develop rental housing and solve the outstanding problems of housing in big cities.

In addition, the meeting also made it clear that the development of policy-based rental housing in large cities with net population influx should be focused.

　　Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, believes that in the future, the development of housing leasing will continue to exert efforts in increasing the supply of rental housing, the protection and expansion of leasehold rights, and standardizing and supporting the development of leasing companies. By then, rents will be more stable and rentals will be real. Become a long-term residence option.

Real estate tax or qualitative progress during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period

　　Liu Kun, the Minister of Finance of China, recently wrote an article to actively and steadily advance real estate tax legislation and reform in accordance with the principle of "legislation first, full authorization, and step-by-step progress".

This article mainly deals with issues related to the reform of the fiscal and taxation system during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

　　The industry believes that this means that the real estate tax or actual qualitative progress in the next five years.

　　The "China Housing Development Report (2020-2021)" recently released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also recommends that some hot cities and cities where real estate speculation has been repeatedly banned should be the first to speed up pilot collections, and strive to levy real estate taxes during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

Four types of opportunity areas

　　Does "no real estate speculation" and "leverage reduction" mean that the real estate industry has lost development opportunities?

　　Experts believe that this is not the case. Real estate still has new development opportunities.

　　According to the aforementioned report of the Academy of Social Sciences, there are still four types of opportunity areas in the future: first, there are still housing shortages in areas with concentrated population inflows, sub-centers of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations, surrounding large, medium and small cities and small towns; second, large populations, Economically developed second-tier cities and surrounding regional cities; third, third- and fourth-tier cities in the central and western regions with large populations, rapid economic development and rapid traffic along the route; fourth, cities with unique environment, culture, tourism, leisure and elderly resources.

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