Domestic oil prices or seven consecutive rises: the first adjustment after the Spring Festival is expected to rise

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, February 18 (Zhang Shunan) After the Spring Festival holiday, the first domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 today (18th).

Institutional analysis shows that since February, the international crude oil market continues to maintain a strong trend, and domestic oil prices are expected to rise this round.

　　New longitude and latitude Zhang Shunan in the data map

　　Jin Lianchuang analyst Xi Jiarui said that in January 2021, international crude oil prices remained high and fluctuated after they surged. Taking WTI as an example, it easily broke through the $50/barrel round on January 6 and then on January 8. It broke through US$52/barrel and has since maintained a consolidation within the range of US$52-54/barrel.

　　Affected by this, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices experienced two increases in January, with a cumulative increase of 260 yuan/ton and 250 yuan/ton respectively.

Entering February, domestic refined oil prices only experienced one price adjustment window period (ie: February 18); March will experience three price adjustment window periods, namely March 3, March 17, and March 31.

　　Local time on Tuesday (February 16), international oil prices rose collectively. The US oil March contract rose 1.14% to US$60.15/barrel; the April contract rose 0.27% to US$63.47/barrel.

　　It should be mentioned that on February 2nd, OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) held a meeting. JTC predicts that the oil market will be in short supply in 2021, and the shortage will reach a peak of 2 million barrels per day in May; it is expected to reach 12 In December, global oil demand will return to 97.9 million barrels per day.

In addition, data from the US Energy Information Administration show that in March, the total output of US shale oil fields is expected to fall by 78,000 barrels per day to 7.503 million barrels per day.

　　According to calculations by Longzhong Information, as of February 9th, the comprehensive rate of change in crude oil was 4.88%. It is expected that gasoline and diesel will increase by 170 yuan/ton.

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client noticed that in 2020, domestic refined oil prices experienced 25 rounds of adjustments, ending in a "four consecutive rises".

This means that if the increase is implemented, domestic refined oil prices will rise for seven consecutive times after the current round of price adjustments.

In 2021, domestic oil prices have achieved "two consecutive increases."

　　The next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on March 3.

Xi Jiarui believes that during this pricing cycle, international oil prices may fluctuate briefly, but then, driven by OPEC+'s continued production cuts and the United States is expected to introduce economic stimulus policies, crude oil prices may continue to remain high.

It is expected that by the end of the pricing period, domestic refined oil prices may be raised or stranded.

　　According to analysis by Wang Xueqin, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, in the later stage, optimism in the crude oil market still dominates in a short period of time. If there is no negative news about an increase in the supply side, crude oil prices are expected to remain strong.

Boosted by this, domestic refined oil prices may have room to rise.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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