Should Olaf Scholz sometimes worry about his professional future: he can make up for a subsequent use as an investment banker. The same applies to his State Secretary Jörg Kukies, although he even comes from the industry and once worked for Goldman Sachs.
The two string makers from Berlin have been working for months to spoil their reputation in the industry. They are the driving forces behind the plan to merge Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank into a so-called "national champion". In fact, after many years of probing, after a semi-serious merger flirtation in the summer of 2016 and the murmuring of months, the executives of both banks have decided to formally negotiate with each other.
So, at first glance, it could be said that Scholz and Kukies are successful, getting their will and maybe the merger. But it is also correct that they proceeded so dilettantisch that the beginning of the merger talks does not work as if they were at the end of a careful, accompanied from both sides with benevolence and anticipation preliminary examination. But as if they were the result of the interaction of a bunch of amateurs in Berlin who want to play industrial policy but can not.
Scholz did not advertise his plans
Scholz and Kukies apparently considered it unnecessary to convince key stakeholders - new German: stakeholders - of their idea: shareholders, supervisory authorities such as the ECB and Bafin, analysts, employee representatives and, last but not least, Germans Bank boss Christian Sewing, who struggles internally with hands and feet - almost nobody can warm up for Scholz 'unitary bank. Except maybe Commerzbank boss Martin Zielke, who does what he claims his major shareholder federation (15 percent). And of course Deutsche Bank supervisory board boss Paul Achleitner, whose banking merger past draws a blood trail through the German financial industry. He once bought Dresdens for Allianz before selling them back to Commerzbank; He burned tens of billions.
The newly emerging institute - ultimately a gang of four from Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Postbank and Dresdner - would be forever busy with itself. Even more customers would migrate to foreign competition. Where the necessary new capital is to come from is completely unclear. A convincing business model is not in sight. There are grave doubts about the rigors that the management of both banks would need in order to complete the merger. And even the "German Commerz" would be too small to play an important role globally.
Even worse: Scholz has maneuvered the two banks in an embarrassing situation with his pressure - behind the scenes and finally publicly. To put the possible union in the world and then watch for months, how the fusion on the public market place is broken, is amateurish. How would the banks, should the merger talks fail, make credible, stand alone better, if Scholz has for weeks barely made to know that he gives no future chances without fusion?
Tormented sound
The scenario of a failure of the merger talks is by no means excluded. Tormented as the official statement of the Deutsche Bank as well as the information of the staff (here it goes to the text) has certainly not yet sounded opinion regarding merger talks. It is downright defiantly cute that Deutsche Bank also wants to examine other strategic options than Commerzbank - because a coveted merger partner, for foreign banks, for example, the group has not been for years.
One could even conclude from the two communications that Deutsche Bank, by announcing merger talks, is taking a step forward to step back two steps later - namely, if it believes that a merger is destroying value would.
In about six weeks, so it will be clear from the Deutsche Bank, will prevail clarity. Until then, Sewing can get along with good quarterly figures and advertise that he alone can do better.
But even if the merger comes at the end: There will be a doom. The two largest banks in the country will be paralyzed for a long time, while the competition for banking in the 21st century is preparing.
Scholz and Kukies screwed up on it. The pieces have to sweep away others. So it is nothing with state industrial policy, which is so fashionable in Berlin.
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