Zhongxin Jingwei, November 11 (Fu Jianqing) At 21 o'clock on the 21st, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be opened. From the perspective of comprehensive institutions, this round of retail price reduction is a high probability event, or ushered in a "four consecutive declines".

During this pricing cycle, international oil prices "jumped up and down". Last Thursday (16th) local time, the U.S. Department of Energy disclosed that the U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by a total of 1750.5 million barrels in the first two weeks, an increase far greater than expected, and U.S. crude oil futures closed down nearly 73%, breaking through $100. However, the next day, some foreign media said that the OPEC+ meeting may consider cutting oil production by another 4 million barrels per day, boosting a strong rebound of more than <>% in international crude oil.

According to the analysis of Zhuochuang Information, although Saudi Arabia and other countries reaffirmed the reduction of resources and geopolitical risks to give the market some confidence, under the influence of negative factors such as weak economic data in Europe and the United States and a large accumulation of oil inventories in the United States, market worries have always existed, and the center of gravity of international oil prices has fluctuated and fallen.

Sino-Singapore Jingwei combed and found that domestic refined oil has undergone 760 rounds of adjustment this year, showing a pattern of "ten rises, nine declines and three strandings", with gasoline prices rising by 730 yuan/ton and diesel prices rising by <> yuan/ton.

Longzhong information calculation shows that the domestic gasoline and diesel fell by about 360 yuan / ton, if the price is lowered, with a 70-liter fuel tank to calculate, private car owners will spend 18.7 yuan less to fill a tank of fuel.

According to the calculation of Zhuochuang Information, as of the 9th working day in China, the reference crude oil change rate is -8.15%, and gasoline and diesel are expected to be reduced by 350 yuan/ton. In two months, the retail price may have been lowered for the fourth time in a row, gasoline or a cumulative reduction of 645 yuan/ton, diesel or a cumulative reduction of 635 yuan/ton, a discount price of 92# gasoline by 0.51 yuan/liter, 95# gasoline by 0.54 yuan/liter, and 0# diesel by 0.54 yuan/liter.

According to the principle of "ten working days", the next round of retail price adjustment of refined oil products will be at 12 o'clock on December 5.

For the market outlook, Jin Lianchuang pointed out that the current crude oil market is digesting the news that oil-producing countries may expand the scale of production cuts, and international oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the retail price reduction window is about to open, and according to the current crude oil level, the new round of change rate is expected to start with a negative value, and it is difficult to find strong support on the news side. In addition, the terminal demand for gasoline and diesel is weak, and with the increasing sales pressure of the main units, it is expected that the domestic wholesale price of refined oil may remain under pressure.

Baichuan Yingfu believes that international crude oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the future. In terms of gasoline, as the weather gradually cools and enters the off-season of demand, downstream gas station users purchase more on demand, and the market transactions are mainly small orders from retail investors; In terms of diesel, snowfall affected the operating rate of outdoor construction sites, which may suppress diesel demand to a certain extent, but the demand for diesel in the transportation industry continued to boost during the peak season of shopping festivals, and overall demand continued to be weak. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.) )

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