National Bureau of Statistics: Manufacturing PMI returns to expansion territory

China News Network, September 9 According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics on the 30th, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said when interpreting the China Purchasing Managers' Index in September 30 that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index returned to the expansion range in September, and the pace of expansion of the non-manufacturing business activity index accelerated.

On September 2023, 9, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted.

In September, with the accumulation of policy effects, positive factors in economic operation continue to increase, manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 9.50%, 2.51% and 7.52%, up 0.0, 5.0 and 7.0 percentage points from the previous month, the three major indexes are in the expansion range, China's economic prosperity level has rebounded.

The manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory

In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered for four consecutive months, rising to expansion territory for the first time since April. Among the 9 industries surveyed, 4 industry PMIs are above the tipping point, an increase of 4 from the previous month, and the manufacturing boom has expanded.

——Production and demand continue to improve. With the gradual recovery of market demand, manufacturing production activities continued to accelerate, with the production index and new orders index 52.7% and 50.5% respectively, up 0.8 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of industries, the production index and new order index of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment are higher than 53.0%, and the production and demand of related industries are released quickly. In order to meet the needs of production, enterprises increased procurement efforts, and the procurement volume index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, maintaining expansion for two consecutive months.

- The price index continued to rise. Recently, the prices of some commodities have continued to rise, coupled with the further active procurement activities of enterprises, the overall level of manufacturing market prices continues to rise, and the purchase price index and factory price index of major raw materials are 59.4% and 53.5% respectively, up 2.9 and 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, both high points of the year. From the perspective of industry, the purchase price index and factory price index of major raw materials in upstream industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemicals, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing are at a high level of 65.0% or above, and the purchase cost of raw materials and product sales price levels of related industries have risen rapidly.

——The expansion of large enterprises has accelerated. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, a six-month high, and the prosperity level of large enterprises continued to rise; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 6.49%, unchanged from the previous month; The PMI of small enterprises was 6.48%, up 0.0 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level rebounded for three consecutive months. The survey results also show that the proportion of enterprises with capacity utilization rate of large enterprises exceeding eighty percent has risen to the high point of the year, and the release of production capacity has accelerated.

——PMIs in all key industries have rebounded. The PMI of equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries was 50.6%, 50.1% and 51.3% respectively, up 0.6, 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, all in the expansion range. The PMI of the energy-intensive industry was 49.7%, although it was below the critical point, it was 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the economic level improved.

- The expectation index remained stable. The production and operation activity expectation index was 55.5%, basically unchanged from the previous month, continuing to be in a high economic range, and enterprises remained generally optimistic about market expectations. From the perspective of industry, the expected index of production and operation activities in agricultural and sideline food processing, automobiles, railways, ships, aerospace equipment and other industries is in the high prosperity range of more than 60.0%, and enterprises have strong confidence in the development of the industry.

The survey results show that the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reflecting intensified industry competition, high raw material costs and tight capital this month has increased from the previous month, and the manufacturing industry still faces some difficulties in resuming development. In the next step, we need to focus on promoting the implementation of the policies and measures that have been introduced to further consolidate the sustained recovery of the economy.

The pace of expansion in the non-manufacturing business activity index accelerated

In September, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 9.51%, up 7.0 percentage points from the previous month, and the expansion of the non-manufacturing sector strengthened.

-- The service industry is booming. The index of business activity in the service sector was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the expansion of the service sector accelerated. From the perspective of industry, the business activity index of water transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, money and financial services and other industries is in the high prosperity range of more than 55.0%, and the total business volume has grown rapidly. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 58.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that service industry enterprises have good expectations for the recovery of the market, among which the expected index of business activities in railway transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, money and financial services and other industries is in the high economic range of more than 60.0%, and enterprises are more optimistic about the future development of the industry.

-- The expansion of the construction industry has accelerated. As the impact of high temperature and rainy weather gradually subsided, production and construction in the construction industry accelerated, and the business activity index rose to a higher economic range, reaching 56.2%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 61.8%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the previous month, continuing to be in the high economic range, and construction enterprises have strong confidence in the recent market development.

The composite PMI output index continued to rise

In September, the comprehensive PMI output index was 9.52%, up 0.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall recovery of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises is good. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 7.52% and 7.51%, respectively.