More and more cities are joining the ranks of purchase restrictions. According to incomplete statistics, since September alone, 9 cities have officially announced the full cancellation of purchase restrictions, including many strong second-tier cities such as Nanjing and Wuhan. Industry insiders believe that the administrative constraint of purchase restrictions is rapidly withdrawing from the real estate market, and there is still room for optimization of the property market policy in core cities in the future.
Since September, 9 cities have completely lifted purchase restrictions
On September 9, Wuhan Housing Security and Housing Bureau and other six departments jointly issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Wuhan, which mentioned ten measures such as canceling purchase restrictions and supporting multi-child families to purchase houses, from the demand side and supply side, to support rigid and improved housing demand, and promote the sustained stable and healthy development of the market.
The "Notice" shows that from September 2023, 9, the housing purchase restriction policy within the second ring road of Wuhan will be canceled to meet the rigid and improved housing purchase needs of residents.
Previously, Wuhan's purchase restriction area was only within the second ring road, and with Wuhan's cancellation of the housing purchase restriction policy within the second ring road, so far, Wuhan has achieved no purchase restrictions.
On the same day, the Office of Wuxi Real Estate Regulation and Control Leading Group also issued the Notice on Several Policies and Measures to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Wuxi, proposing the cancellation of the purchase restriction policy in the whole city.
With the addition of Wuhan and Wuxi, according to the monitoring of the China Index Research Institute, from September 9 to 1, 19 cities in Shenyang, Nanjing, Dalian, Lanzhou, Qingdao, Jinan, Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Wuxi and Wuhan have completely cancelled purchase restrictions.
Some cities still have reservations about the core area. Xi'an Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau recently organized a working conference to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, which proposed to further optimize and adjust the scope of purchase restrictions, and cancel purchase restrictions in areas outside the second ring road of Xi'an.
Prior to this, the property market policy issued by Xiamen City made it clear that the purchase of first-hand and second-hand commercial housing in Jimei District, Haicang District, Tong'an District and Xiang'an District would no longer review the qualifications of buyers and no longer limit the listing and trading time. The policies of Siming District and Huli District remain unchanged.
According to the monitoring data of the China Index Research Institute, there are still purchase restrictions in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Xiamen, Chengdu, Changsha, Tianjin, Haikou, Sanya, Xi'an and other cities.
However, it can be seen in the team that cancels purchase restrictions, and more and more core second-tier cities have also begun to join in the cancellation of purchase restrictions.
Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, pointed out that the current pace of purchase restrictions relaxation in second-tier cities is accelerating, not only weak second-tier relaxation, Nanjing, Qingdao, Wuhan and other strong second-tier cities have also fully canceled purchase restrictions, which also represents that the administrative constraint of purchase restrictions is rapidly withdrawing from the real estate market, in addition to first-tier cities, the role of purchase restrictions itself on the real estate industry has been weakened, and the cancellation of purchase restrictions can better allow buyers with self-occupied needs to enter, return to the residential attributes of real estate, and ensure reasonable purchase demand in the real estate market.
Zhang Bo mentioned that from the background of the introduction of purchase restrictions, in the stage of overheating of the real estate market, a large amount of investment and rising speculative demand, through purchase restrictions can play a role in curbing such demand and stabilizing the real estate market. At present, real estate has entered a new cycle, the supply and demand relationship in the market has undergone major changes, buyers are basically self-occupied demand, and then through purchase restrictions to suppress demand is of little practical significance. At the same time, strong second-tier cities are also the main force of future population inflow, and the normal residential demand after population inflow needs to be solved not only through leasing, but also through the purchase of houses, and the cancellation of purchase restrictions is more conducive to protecting the residential rights and interests of new citizens.
Zhang Bo believes that in the context of housing and living without speculation, the administrative restrictions on the reasonable housing needs of a large number of residents will be weakened, and will shift from restrictions to encouragement or guarantees. At the same time, the policy itself focuses more on stabilizing the property market, stabilizing housing prices, better combining regional development to break regional restrictions, do a good job in the overall solution of residential needs, and ensure the synchronous demand of rigid demand and improvement.
Policy adjustments in first-tier cities depend on the degree of market recovery
In view of the changes in the real estate market situation since the beginning of this year, in late July, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee clearly pointed out that "to adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of China's real estate market, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, and make good use of the policy toolbox according to urban policies to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market."
Subsequently, all regions and departments conscientiously implemented the spirit of the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee, and successively introduced optimization measures such as the first home loan, "recognizing the house but not the loan", and adjusting the minimum down payment ratio of housing loans.
From the end of August to the beginning of September, first-tier cities successively implemented the policy of "recognizing houses without recognizing loans" for the first home, and the policy strength in Beijing and Shanghai exceeded market expectations, greatly repairing market sentiment and expectations. At the same time, the recent relaxation of purchase restrictions in many core cities has further boosted market confidence.
According to Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, the current residents' income perception and employment expectations have not yet recovered, and the willingness to buy houses with leverage is much lower than in previous rounds of market cycles, so the recovery of the real estate market still needs a process.
Chen Wenjing pointed out that from the perspective of policy trends, core cities still have room for optimization, and second-tier cities are expected to fully cancel the restrictive policies introduced in the past during the market overheating stage. The policy adjustment of first-tier cities depends on the degree of market recovery, and it is expected that the purchase restriction policy will be optimized in accordance with the principle of region-specific policies in the future. In addition, reducing the down payment ratio, reducing the mortgage interest rate plus points, and reducing transaction taxes are also the direction of policy optimization in first-tier cities, and the recognition standards of Beijing-Shanghai and Pupu homes have not been adjusted for ten years, and there is room for optimization.
Chen Wenjing mentioned that from the perspective of the national market trend, with the further follow-up and implementation of the policy in the core cities, the market is expected to gradually stabilize and recover, thereby driving the national real estate market to gradually stabilize and stabilize the overall price, among which the price of third- and fourth-tier cities may continue to decline in the short term. From the supply side, under the influence of the overall slow repair of the sales side, it is expected that the willingness and investment of enterprises to start construction are weak, and the repair of the supply side will take longer, among which the core cities are expected to take the lead in improving construction and investment driven by the increase in sales activity. (Surging News Reporter Ji Simin)