With the implementation of a series of latest real estate policies, the supply and demand sides are expected to reverse.

China's real estate market can be expected to improve (Rui Caijing)

Our reporter Kong Dechen

On September 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released the basic situation of the national real estate market from January to August. The data shows that in the first 15 months, the sales area of commercial housing fell by 1.8%, and the sales of commercial housing fell by 8.7%; In August, among the 1 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly built commercial homes and second-hand homes increased month-on-month in 3 and 2 cities respectively, both down 8 from the previous month.

A number of experts said that from the situation in August, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage; However, with the implementation of a series of new real estate policies such as "recognizing housing without recognizing loans", the supply and demand ends are expected to reverse, and the real estate market can be expected to improve.

The sales prices of urban commercial housing have risen and fallen

Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the supply side, from January to August this year, the national real estate development investment was 1.8 trillion yuan, down 76900.8% year-on-year, of which residential investment was 8.58425 billion yuan, down 8.0%. During the same period, the new construction area and construction area of housing enterprises continued to decline. Under the policy of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, the completed area of housing showed positive growth, of which the completed area of residential buildings was 31775.19 million square meters, an increase of 5.8%. In August, the real estate development prosperity index was 93.56, falling for four consecutive months.

From the perspective of prices, in August, the sales price of commercial residential buildings in 8 large and medium-sized cities decreased, and the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in various tier cities decreased month-on-month, rising and falling year-on-year.

Sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 8.0%, 2.0% and 3.0% respectively month-on-month in August, while Shanghai rose 6.0% month-on-month. Second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell 1.0% month-on-month, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, of which Beijing increased by 6.0% month-on-month.

In August, among the 8 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly built commercial homes and second-hand homes increased year-on-year in 70 and 25 cities, respectively, down 3 and 1 from the previous month. Sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities increased by 2.0% year-on-year.

"Since the beginning of this year, with the economic and social operation fully returning to normal operation, the real estate market has improved in the first quarter. However, affected by multiple factors, the overall trend of real estate market sales and development and construction has shown a downward trend since the second quarter. Fu Linghui said.

Policies such as "recognizing housing but not recognizing loans" have been intensively introduced

In view of the changes in the real estate market situation since the beginning of this year, in late July, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee clearly pointed out that "to adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of China's real estate market, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, and make good use of the policy toolbox according to urban policies to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market."

A number of industry experts said that although the real estate data fell in August, it should be seen that since late August, the pace of introduction of a series of real estate policies has accelerated, and the specifications and intensity have been significantly improved, which is playing a role in boosting market confidence.

At the end of August, the central bank, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and other departments successively launched policies such as "recognizing housing without recognizing loans", lowering the interest rate of the first home stock loan, and differentiated housing credit. Local governments have stepped up the implementation of central policies and optimized and adjusted housing purchase policies according to urban policies, especially in early September, local policies were issued intensively, and they were not limited to credit aspects such as "recognizing housing but not recognizing loans". From September 8, Nanjing's purchase restriction policy will be lifted; On September 9, Hefei issued a new policy for real estate regulation and control, completely canceling purchase and sale restrictions, Dalian, Lanzhou, Qingdao, Jinan and other cities also completely canceled purchase restrictions and sales restrictions, and Suzhou no longer restricted the purchase of commercial housing of 9 square meters and above.

Under the superimposed influence of a number of policies, the activity of the property market in many places has increased since September. According to statistics from the Centaline Real Estate Research Center, in the week after the new policy, 9,5000 sets of second-hand houses and 3500,9 sets of new residential buildings were sold in Beijing, exceeding the transaction volume of the previous half month and one month, respectively. According to statistics from the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, in the week of September 4 to 10, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen increased by 26.4% month-on-month.

Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, believes that the "house recognition but not loan" policy in first-tier cities has promoted the rotation of the "sell one buy one" replacement chain, and the number of second-hand housing listings will increase in the short term, and the demand for housing purchases or backlog in the early stage will be quickly released, and supply and demand will increase simultaneously.

Investment, sales and market operation will tend to improve

Can the real estate market continue to recover in the future? A number of industry insiders have a positive attitude.

Fu Linghui believes that recently, various regions and departments have successively introduced optimization measures such as "recognizing housing without recognizing loans" for first home loans, adjusting the minimum down payment ratio of housing loans, etc., to support residents' rigid and improved housing demand, which is conducive to boosting market confidence and improving the operating expectations of housing enterprises. "With the implementation of the real estate market adjustment and optimization policies and measures, and the economic recovery is improving, real estate investment, sales and market operation will gradually improve in the next stage." Fu Linghui said.

Industry insiders analyzed that with the help of policies, the real estate market is expected to enter the "golden nine silver ten" sales season, and the supply rhythm and sales expectation reversal will continue to drive the recovery of the industry. "Judging from the current real estate sales, the market expectation of 'Golden Nine Silver Ten' is very good, and the market sentiment and market trend are good." Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said.

Chen Wenjing believes that driven by a number of new policies, it is expected that the "gold, nine, silver ten" market in first- and second-tier cities can be expected. "In some hot cities, there are more housing demand suppressed by the policy in the early stage, and the threshold for buying houses after the policy optimization is greatly reduced, and the demand entering the market will form a better support for the market; Hot cities with stronger fundamentals such as population size and residents' purchasing power also have higher support for housing demand. Chen Wenjing said.

However, it will take time for the real estate market to recover. "Some cities still have room for policy optimization, and if the policy adjustment of these cities is greater in the future, it is expected to bring a stronger demonstration effect and be conducive to the overall recovery of the market." Chen Wenjing said. (People's Daily Overseas Edition)