In August 2023, the CPI turned from a year-on-year decline to an increase, and the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed
——Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the CPI and PPI data for August 2023
The National Bureau of Statistics today released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Price Index) data for August 2023. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted.
First, the CPI increased slightly month-on-month, turning from a year-on-year decline to an increase
In August, the consumer market continued to recover, the relationship between supply and demand continued to improve, and the CPI rose slightly from a decline to an increase year-on-year.
From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI rose 0.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, food prices increased by 1.0% from a 0.5% decline in the previous month, affecting the CPI by about 0.10 percentage points. In food, pork prices increased by 11.4% from flat last month due to factors such as the impact of extreme weather in some areas, the reluctance of farmers to sell and the storage of pork from central reserves to support market confidence. Egg prices increased by 0.9% from a decrease of 8.3% in the previous month, coupled with an increase in consumer demand near the start of school and mid-autumn festival. Fresh fruit supplies were abundant, and prices fell by 4.4%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Non-food prices rose 0.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI by about 0.17 percentage points. Among non-food products, affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, domestic gasoline prices rose by 4.9%; Affected by summer travel, hotel accommodation and travel prices increased by 1.8% and 1.4% respectively.
From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI turned up 0.3% from a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Among them, food prices fell by 1.7%, the same rate of decline as last month, affecting the CPI by about 0.31 percentage points. In food, pork prices fell by 17.9%, a decrease of 8.1 percentage points from the previous month; the prices of fresh vegetables, beef and mutton fell by 3.3%, 4.9% and 4.6% respectively, and the decline was widened. Prices of potatoes, eggs and fresh fruit rose by 6.5%, 3.0% and 1.3% respectively. Non-food prices rose 0.5% from flat last month, affecting CPI by about 0.41 percentage points. Among non-food items, service prices rose by 1.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, of which the prices of air tickets, travel and hotel accommodation increased by 17.6%, 14.8% and 13.4% respectively. Industrial consumer prices fell 0.8%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, of which gasoline prices fell 4.6%, a decline of 8.9 percentage points.
It is estimated that in the 8.0% year-on-year increase in CPI in August, the tail impact of last year's price change was about 1.0 percentage points, compared with 2 last month; the new impact of price change this year was about -0.0 percentage points, compared with -1.0 percentage points last month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 3.0% year-on-year, holding steady growth.
Second, PPI turned from falling to rising month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed
In August, affected by the improvement in demand for some industrial products and the rise in international crude oil prices, PPI turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed.
From a month-on-month perspective, PPI turned up 0.2% from a 0.2% decline in the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production increased by 0.4% from a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month; The price of living materials rose by 0.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Affected by the rise in international crude oil prices, the domestic oil and gas extraction industry rose by 5.6%, and the price of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 5.4%. Demand in metal-related sectors improved, with prices rising 0.4% in the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry and 0.1% in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. Coal demand weakened seasonally, and coal mining and washing industry prices fell by 0.8%. In addition, the price of agricultural and sideline food processing industry rose by 1.3%, the price of new energy vehicle manufacturing rose by 0.8%, and the price of electric power and heat production and supply industry rose by 0.2%. Manufacturing prices for computer communications and other electronic equipment fell 0.4 percent.
From a year-on-year perspective, PPI fell by 3.0%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production fell by 3.7%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points; the price of living materials fell by 0.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The price decline of major industries narrowed: coal mining and washing industry fell by 16.2%, narrowing by 2.9 percentage points; oil and gas extraction industry fell by 10.6%, narrowing by 10.9 percentage points; chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry fell by 10.4%, narrowing by 3.8 percentage points; petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry fell by 9.6%, narrowing by 8.7 percentage points; ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 6.6%, narrowing by 4.0 percentage points. The total impact of the above five industries on PPI fell by about 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for more than 98% of the total decline. The decline widened by 1.9 percent in the manufacture of computer communications and other electronic equipment. In addition, the price of the cultural, educational, industrial, industrial, and recreational goods manufacturing industry rose by 5.4%, the price of electric power and heat production and supply rose by 1.7%, and the price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 1.4%.
It is estimated that in the 8.3% year-on-year decline in PPI in August, the tail impact of last year's price changes was about -0.0 percentage points, compared with -3.1 percentage points last month; the new impact of price changes this year was about -6.2 percentage points, compared with -7.2 percentage points last month.