Many departments have spoken intensively on the real estate market and made great efforts to "implement policies according to the city."

Reporter Du Yumeng and Liu Qi

On August 8, entrusted by the State Council, Zheng Zhajie, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, reported to the fifth meeting of the Standing Committee of the 28th National People's Congress on the implementation of the national economic and social development plan since the beginning of this year.

Focusing on the work that needs to be focused on in the second half of the year, the report pointed out that strengthen risk early warning and proper disposal, adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of China's real estate market, make good use of the policy toolbox according to the city, optimize the structure of land supply, better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Increase the supply of affordable housing, and support local governments and enterprises to increase the construction of affordable rental housing.

"It is expected that the property market policy in the second half of the year will continue to combine long-term mechanisms and short-term policies, and in view of the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship in China's real estate market, we will jointly promote the stable operation of the real estate market from both sides of supply and demand." Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily.

The property market continues to have favorable policies

Since the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 7 this year set the tone for the real estate market, expressions about the real estate market have frequently appeared in important meetings of the central government and relevant departments.

According to the reporter, less than a week after the aforementioned meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Ni Hong, minister of housing and urban-rural development, made it clear at the enterprise symposium that "we must continue to consolidate the trend of stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, vigorously support rigid and improved housing demand, and further implement policies and measures such as reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for the purchase of the first home, tax exemptions for improved housing purchases, and personal housing loans 'recognizing houses without recognising loans'." This is undoubtedly a positive response to the "good policy toolbox for city-specific policies".

Subsequently, the executive meeting of the State Council held on July 7 further pointed out that "it is necessary to adjust and optimize real estate policies, introduce policy measures conducive to the stable and healthy development of the real estate market according to different needs and different cities, and accelerate the study and construction of a new development model of the real estate industry." In addition, at the work conference in the second half of 31, the People's Bank of China and State Administration of Foreign Exchange not only once again stressed the need to "support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market", but also clearly proposed that "the differentiated housing credit policy will be accurately implemented according to the city's policies, and the interest rate and down payment ratio of personal housing loans will continue to guide the downward trend of personal housing loan interest rates and down payment ratios, so as to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents." Guide commercial banks to adjust the interest rates of existing personal housing loans in an orderly manner in accordance with the law."

From the perspective of policy, the policy content is not only more detailed and specific, but also significantly exceeds expectations. For example, on August 8, the "Announcement on Extending the Implementation of Individual Income Tax Policies Related to Supporting Residents to Purchase Housing" and the "Notice on Optimizing the Criteria for Determining the Number of Housing Units in Individual Housing Loans" were released one after another, the former clarifying that "taxpayers who sell their own houses and repurchase housing in the market within one year after the sale of their current housing will be given tax refund benefits for the individual income tax paid by them for the sale of their existing housing"; The latter promotes the implementation of the policy measure of "recognizing a house without a loan" for the purchase of a loan for the purchase of the first home. On the same day, the executive meeting of the State Council also deliberated and adopted the "Guiding Opinions on Planning and Construction of Affordable Housing", and pointed out that it is necessary to do a good job in the planning and design of affordable housing, promote construction with reform and innovative methods, ensure the quality of housing construction, and pay attention to strengthening the construction of supporting facilities and the supply of public services. Immediately afterwards, the CSRC released a message on August 25, focusing on grasping the pace of refinancing, stressing that "the refinancing of real estate listed companies is not subject to breakdown, net breakage and loss restrictions".

"These policies are focused on funding." Zhao Xiuchi, president of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Real Estate Research Institute and executive vice president of the Beijing Real Estate Law Society, said frankly in an interview that capital is the lifeblood of the real estate industry. Without funds, housing companies cannot develop projects; Without more favorable funds, the high cost of home buyers is not conducive to the release of demand. In general, a series of policies recently introduced will play a positive role in the property market expectations, but the recovery of the follow-up real estate market still needs continuous policy follow-up, concept adjustment, and expectation stability, especially at the source to increase residents' income and improve residents' ability to buy houses.

Positive signs have been expected

From the current real estate market performance, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first seven months of this year, the sales area of commercial housing was 7.66563 million square meters, down 6.5% year-on-year, of which residential sales area fell 4.3%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 70450,1 billion yuan, down 5.0% year-on-year, of which residential sales increased by 7.<>%.

Since August, the market has continued to adjust at a low level. According to the data monitoring of the China Index, the average weekly transaction area of commercial housing in the first two weeks of August in key 8 cities across the country decreased by 8.50% compared with the weekly average in July and 7.16% from the same period last year.

Chen Wenjing, marketing director of the China Index Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that at present, the stability of the real estate market is still affected and constrained by a number of factors. First, residents' income expectations have not improved significantly. Second, the price decline of new houses and second-hand houses is still expected to be strong, and buyers are in a wait-and-see mood. In addition, buyers are still worried about the end of off-plan housing, and the current debt repayment pressure of some housing enterprises is greater, which also disturbs market expectations.

However, Chen Wenjing believes that with the implementation of the aforementioned series of property market support policies, especially the introduction of the "no mortgage" policy for the first house specified by the three departments, it has opened up space for core cities to optimize real estate credit policies, and it is expected that most second-tier cities will follow up soon. For first-tier cities, there are also policy expectations, due to the high total price of houses in first-tier cities and the large gap between the down payment ratio of the first home and the second house, if the policy is followed up, it will have a more obvious driving effect on the real estate market. In general, if the local government accelerates the speed of policy implementation, the "golden nine silver ten" market in the core city property market can be expected.

Huatai Securities believes that the current policy and broker expectations have shown positive signals, and it is expected that more first- and second-tier cities will implement optimized real estate policies, and form a synergy with other economic policies to stabilize residents' house price expectations and housing purchase demand.

In Zhang Bo's view, from the perspective of "city-specific policies" in the real estate market, it is expected that the supply side will focus on the supply optimization of the land market, reduce the supply of urban land with excessive inventory and obvious population outflow, and at the same time pay attention to the rhythm of real estate development enterprises to de-risk, and effectively promote the work of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" while optimizing the supply structure. From the demand side, the direction is still to ensure the rigid housing needs of residents, and may increase the support of improved housing policies. In terms of long-term mechanisms, affordable housing is still the focus.