Demand is sluggish, the paper industry's performance in the first half of the year is under pressure, can the head enterprises raise prices again, can they solve the difficulties?

Reporter Wang Xi

Recently, APP, Bohui Paper, Sun Paper, Chenming Paper and other white cardboard head enterprises issued another price increase letter, announcing a price increase in product prices. Behind the repeated announcement of price increases by head paper companies, the entire paper industry has faced difficulties since this year: overcapacity, sluggish demand, and serious cost inversion...

Such difficulties are also reflected in the first half of the performance of listed paper companies. According to the statistics of Oriental Wealth Choice, as of the evening of August 8, 27 of the 24 listed companies in the A-share paper industry have disclosed half-year reports, of which 13 companies' net profits have fallen compared with the same period last year; There were 7 companies that lost money in the first half of the year.

"With the release of holiday stocking orders and the increase in demand, the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to ease. The price increase of large-scale paper mills can also boost market confidence to a certain extent. Li Shuang, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told the "Securities Daily" reporter.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of this year, the operating income of China's paper and paper products industry was 6523.9 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year; Total profit was RMB120.4 billion, down 44.6% year-on-year. From the company level, Sun Paper, Shanying International, Yueyang Lin Paper, Tsingshan Paper, etc., which have disclosed their half-year reports, all experienced different declines in the first half of the year.

Overall, in the first half of this year, due to the sharp decline in the price of papermaking raw materials such as wood pulp and wood chips, from the cost perspective, the paper industry has the opportunity to repair profits compared with the same period last year. However, due to the weak downstream demand, there are still many new production capacity put into operation in the industry, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry has become more and more intense, making it difficult for paper prices to recover.

Taking Yueyang Lin Paper, a large-scale cultural paper enterprise, as an example, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent of 1 million yuan in the first half of the year, down 03.65% from the same period last year. The company said that since the beginning of this year, the downstream market of the paper industry has recovered slowly, while the launch of new production capacity and the increase in the operating rate of small and medium-sized manufacturers, the sales volume and price of mechanical cultural paper have decreased year-on-year, making the overall performance decline.

The packaging paper industry was more obviously affected, and Shanying International, which mainly produces containerboard and corrugated paper, lost 2 million yuan in the first half of the year. The company said that the market performance of the packaging paper industry in the first half of the year was lower than expected, and it is still facing the pressure of new production capacity on the supply side to continue to be put into production, while the downstream consumer demand recovery is slow. According to Zhuochuang information data, the average price of containerboard from January to June 71 was 2023 yuan / ton, down 1.6% year-on-year, and the average price of corrugated paper was 4103 yuan / ton, down 15.65% year-on-year.

However, it is worth noting that the price of containerboard and corrugated paper has shown signs of profit recovery after the bottom of the second quarter. Guosheng Securities analyzed that the decline in the market price of containerboard and corrugated paper in the second quarter has narrowed. "At present, paper prices are gradually digesting the impact of zero tariffs on imported paper, and waste paper prices stopped falling and stabilized in August, and it is expected that with the recovery of demand in the peak season, profits are expected to improve."

Liu Jian, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that market research shows that the demand for finished paper stocking for the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day has begun, and with the steady realization of the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day stocking demand, the sales volume of finished paper may continue to grow.

China Merchants Securities analysis predicts that papermaking enterprises will enter the performance realization period in the third quarter; The current demand for packaging paper is recovering, sales are expected to exceed expectations, and the second half of the year will gradually enter the real peak season.

The paper industry, which is at the bottom of the cycle, is looking forward to the peak season. In the eyes of the industry, the pursuit of diversified layout, forest pulp and paper strategy, and refined management are also the key factors for enterprises to develop steadily in the "grinding period".

On August 8, Sun Paper announced its first-half results, and the company achieved operating income of 26.193 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent of 4.12 billion yuan. The company told reporters that in the first half of the year, the company gave full play to the best synergy effect of enterprise production, supply, marketing, logistics and energy, so that the company could overcome the influence of various adverse factors to achieve this achievement.

In addition, Sun Paper said that the company's "three bases" in Shandong, Guangxi and Laos have entered a new stage of comprehensive coordinated development, especially with the gradual implementation of the new construction and technological transformation projects in Nanning Park of the Guangxi base as planned and entering the trial production stage, the total production capacity of the company's paper and pulp will be close to 1200 million tons. In the first half of the year, the pulp forest construction of the company's Laos base also achieved new breakthroughs or improvements in many aspects, helping the company continue to build its core competitiveness in the upstream industrial chain. (Securities Daily)