Under the watershed of the big cycle, the previous era of rushing to "get on the car" to buy a house and invest in the real estate market has completely ended.
On July 7, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work, and when talking about the real estate market, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of China's real estate market, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, and make good use of the policy toolbox according to urban policies to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
At the opening of A-shares on July 7, the real estate sector rose sharply, the related real estate index rose by more than 25%, and 5 constituent stocks (excluding 110 suspended stocks) collectively turned red. In Hong Kong stocks, the property and construction index in the Hang Seng Composite Industry Index also rose sharply, showing positive feedback from the market on the spirit of the Politburo meeting.
The reason why the real estate sector is so "enthusiastic" is that the Political Bureau of the Central Committee has set the tone for the major changes that have taken place in China's property market recently, whether it is clarifying the new situation of "major changes in market supply and demand", or proposing to "adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner" and "make good use of the policy toolbox according to urban policies", and once again emphasize the need to actively promote the transformation of urban villages.
At the micro level, this means that a series of policies and measures favorable to the property market will soon be introduced and implemented, and these policy measures will be sustainable. This is likely to include the relaxation of property market control policies in first- and second-tier cities.
Many people have paid attention to the fact that this meeting did not mention "housing and living without speculation", which does not mean that "housing and living without speculation" is no longer important. As we all know, in the past two years, the transaction activity of China's real estate market has shown a downward trend, house prices are in a falling channel, and consumers' willingness to buy houses is also declining. When there are not so many people in the market to speculate on houses, there is naturally no need to highlight the prompts of "housing and living without speculation".
The judgment that "the supply and demand relationship in China's real estate market has undergone major changes" is very important, because it means that a watershed of a large cycle has been clarified, and relevant management policies may also undergo major changes.
Prior to this, in view of the overheated real estate market, in order to "live in housing without speculation", regulatory policies such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and price restrictions were important features of real estate management. After that, for the market that is no longer overheated, the content of China's property market policy "toolbox" will be very different.
Under the watershed of the big cycle, consumers should also make it clear that the previous era of rushing to "get on the car" to buy a house and invest in the property market has completely ended.
The old regulatory policies will be relaxed and the new favorable policies for the property market will be introduced, but it is extravagant to hope that the long-term trend of the real estate market will be changed through policies, which is not the purpose of the policy, but the policy responds to the situation, not the policy creates the situation.
After more than 20 years of development, China's real estate market has undergone earth-shaking changes, the per capita housing of residents has been greatly improved, housing needs are basically satisfied, the quality of life has improved significantly, coupled with the slowdown of population growth in recent years and even the first decline, the slowdown of urbanization process, the slowdown of economic growth and many other factors, the actual basis for soaring housing prices no longer exists, and the future real estate market will also shift from building new houses to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of this year, the country's real estate development investment was 5.9 trillion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year, the largest decline in the year.
In the same period, the national commercial housing sales area was 5 million square meters, down 95.5% year-on-year, and the decline expanded for two consecutive months; The sales volume of commercial housing was 3.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.1%, and the growth rate shrank for two consecutive months.
Subsequently, the glorious era of real estate developers will also end, but this does not mean that the status of real estate as a pillar industry of the national economy has changed.
The real estate industry has a large scale, high weight, long chain and wide involvement, which has a strong driving effect on upstream and downstream related industries and has a strong reservoir function. At the same time, it is also about people's livelihood and employment, which is why real estate is always an indispensable content when it comes to macroeconomic policies.
At present, the real estate market is related to economic recovery, which can neither overheat, but also not allow sudden cooling, at least not a drag on the national economy.
For ordinary consumers, after recognizing the fresh situation, they will find that in the current market environment, it will be very irrational to rush to gamble on the introduction of follow-up property market "stimulus" policies and soaring house prices.
Once the market supply and demand relationship changes, it is difficult to change in the short term. However, for rigid and improved housing demand, consumers may wish to pay attention to the time window for the introduction of subsequent new policies, and rationally consider whether to make a move based on their own economic situation and economic environment.
Although major changes in the property market have set the tone, the main trend of China's property market over the past two decades has been upward, and most people's confidence in the property market is still there, coupled with the fundamentals and institutional advantages of China's economy, it is not difficult to make a smooth transition to a new development model. (Beijing News)