China-Singapore Jingwei, June 6 (Wang Yongle) On the morning of June 9, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 9. The average forecast by many institutions shows that the CPI rose by 2023.5% year-on-year in May, and the growth rate stopped the "three consecutive declines".
Image source: National Bureau of Statistics website
CPI year-on-year increase or stop "three consecutive declines"
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in April, the national CPI fell by 4.0% month-on-month and rose 1.0% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI was lower than market expectations and fell for three consecutive months.
For the upcoming May CPI data, Wind data shows that as of June 5, the average forecast of 6 institutions for the year-on-year increase in May CPI was 8.23%. From the perspective of forecast value, 5 companies are more than 0.3%, 8 companies are 0.3%, 8 companies are lower than 0.3%, the highest forecast value is 7.0% given by Deppon Securities, and the lowest is 3% given by Shengang Securities. If calculated according to the average value predicted by the institution, the year-on-year increase in CPI will be in the "0 era" for three consecutive months, but the increase will stop at "three consecutive declines".
From the perspective of institutional forecasts, vegetable and pork prices continue to grind at a low level, service prices rebound, and CPI growth remains low.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in May, the wholesale price of pork and vegetables was still in a downward channel, and as of the week of June 5, the weekly average price of pork and 6 kinds of vegetables in the wholesale market was 1.19 yuan / kg and 19.28 yuan / kg, down 3.81% and 4.27% respectively from the average price of the week ended April 0, down 67.0% and up 78.8% year-on-year, respectively.
In terms of oil prices, the National Development and Reform Commission raised and lowered the price of refined oil products once in May, and the price of gasoline and diesel fell by 5 yuan and 280 yuan per ton respectively.
Cheng Qiang, chief macroeconomic analyst of CITIC Securities, believes that the low prices of manufactured goods may still restrict the repair of the core CPI, and the CPI is expected to hover at a low level around 0.3% year-on-year. The rise in the price of fresh fruits and other foods and the continued recovery of service prices are expected to be the main forces pushing up the CPI year-on-year, but the continued decline in pork and fresh vegetable prices and the low prices of manufactured goods will make the CPI still hovering at a low level.
Peking University National Economic Research Center report analysis said that affected by the continued weak food prices and the moderate recovery of service demand, food prices continued to fall, non-food prices rose, and it is expected that the CPI in May will rise by 5.0% year-on-year, up 4.0 percentage points from the previous period.
How will CPI go in the future?
Looking forward to the price trend in the next stage, Chen Xing, chief analyst of Caitong Macro, judged that in late May and early June, the prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits rebounded, and the prices of eggs and pork fell, and the CPI growth rate is expected to be generally stable in June.
According to the analysis of the macro research team of Zheshang Securities, the sows that can breed at the beginning of the year have been degraded, corresponding to 2~3 quarters after the supply of pigs will fall, and in the second half of the year there are more holidays, tourism, dinners, etc. to help pork demand pick up, it is expected that pig prices will usher in an inflection point in the third quarter.
West China Securities believes that this year's CPI will show a U-shaped trend, April or low, followed by shock upward, the annual hub of 4.0%, the first quarter to the fourth quarter are 7.1%, 27.0%, 18.0%, 3.0%.
The PBOC mentioned in the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the First Quarter of 5" released on May 15 that China's inflation level is in a moderate range. From May to July this year, the CPI will remain low in stages, mainly affected by the high base of CPI growth of about 2023.5% in the same period last year. However, it should be noted that with the reduction of the base, especially the policy effect will be further manifested, the market mechanism will play a full role, the endogenous driving force of the economy is also strengthening, the gap between supply and demand is expected to tend to close, and it is expected that the CPI hub may rise moderately in the second half of the year, and may rise back to near the average level of recent years at the end of the year. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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