Entering June, the price of durian is going all the way up. On June 6, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily found that the price of gold-pillow durian doubled compared with a month ago, and the unit price of some shelled durians was almost the same as the net pulp price. Why is the price of the king of tropical fruits always difficult to "beat"? The analysis pointed out that in the case of shrinking supply, the larger market demand will further increase the price, and the price is expected to fall in the future as the harvested fruits of durian production areas are successively listed. It is worth noting that domestic durian cannot achieve mass production for the time being, and the price of durian cannot be reduced in a short time.
Golden pillow durian is close to 50 yuan per catty
The "durian freedom" that had not yet arrived flew away. A reporter from Beijing Business Daily visited major fresh supermarkets and saw that the durian inventory of many supermarkets was tight and the price was significantly higher than some time ago. The reporter's rough statistics found that the current price of gold-pillow durian on the market is about 35 yuan / jin, and the Ganyao durian is also close to 30 yuan / jin, and the gold-pillow durian has even reached 45 yuan / jin, gradually approaching the 50 yuan mark.
A clerk at a supermarket in Haidian District told a Beijing Business Daily reporter that "durian is out of stock in the past two days, and the specific arrival time is uncertain." The clerk also said that the price of durian has risen since mid-to-late May, and during the "May Day" period, the price of Ganyao durian per catty was less than 5 yuan.
In the case of rising market prices, consumers buying shelled durian are not as good as buying shelled net pulp directly, and the price of the two is not much different. Some durian sellers revealed that the meat yield of the whole durian is generally about 50%. Taking golden pillow durian as an example, on the fresh e-commerce platform, a box of 300 grams of frozen durian meat costs 35.9 yuan, that is, about 100 yuan per 12 grams; durian priced at 45 yuan / jin, assuming a meat yield of 50%, 45 yuan can only buy 250 grams of pulp, so the price per 100 grams is about 18 yuan. In summary, the shell weight is included in the weight when weighing durian, and there is a certain uncertainty in the meat yield, at this stage, consumers are more suitable for purchasing durian to directly choose the net pulp.
A month ago, the topic of "durian freedom" rushed to the hot lists of major platforms, and netizens sighed that "the price of durian has been beaten down". At that time, no matter which variety, the general market price of durian was about 25 yuan / jin, and the unit price in some areas was less than 20 yuan. Relevant reports show that in early April, the price of many varieties of durian dropped by almost 4-20 yuan per kilogram.
Industry insiders told the Beijing Business Daily reporter that when durian was initially listed, the market supply was sufficient, there were many suppliers, and the company also adopted the bidding model to select suppliers for cooperation to reduce the cost of purchase. However, as supply decreases, market conditions change.
Demand far exceeds supply
Compared to the huge demand, the lack of supply is one of the reasons for the increase in its selling price. The above-mentioned industry insiders analyzed that the origin of golden pillow durian is located in Thailand, initially from a few regions began to mature, this regional product first entered the market, recently, as regional products gradually finished picking, and other regional durians are not yet mature, the market has a "shortage period", so the price is rising and inventory is tight.
Judging from the feedback from the Beijing market, durian is more popular this year than in previous years. The relevant person in charge of Wumart Supermarket told the Beijing Business Daily reporter that consumers are hot to buy durian this year, and the overall demand for durian is large. According to reports, up to now, the overall sales volume of durian in Wumart Supermarket this year has nearly tripled compared with previous years. At the same time, the reporter noticed that various supermarkets and enterprises have planned a number of activities for durian, such as the Thai Embassy in China, CP Group and Douyin Group, the Thai Durian Carnival held in Longhu Daxing Tianjie and Blue Harbor, and the tropical fruit festival of Wumart Supermarket.
At the same time, the increase in export prices in the country of origin has also promoted the price of durian in China. A supermarket employee revealed to the Beijing Business Daily reporter that compared with last year, the purchase price of various varieties of durian production areas has increased to a certain extent, with an increase of about 10%-20%.
Previously, the Internet celebrity anchor "Simba" was accused by netizens of bringing Thai durian and selling more than 160.<> million pieces, saying that it "brought goods to increase the price of durian", and the Guangzhou Market Supervision Bureau responded that it had not found illegal acts of hoarding and price gouging. Whether the price of durian has risen due to live streaming is unknown, but it is certain that the mismatch between supply and demand and the high market heat have driven the price of durian higher.
Under the boom, domestic durian has also become one of the objects of "high hopes" of domestic consumers. According to CCTV news reports, at present, 1400,6 mu of durian planted at the durian base of Sanya Yucai Ecological Zone in Hainan Province have been hung with young fruits and will mature and market in June this year. However, this does not mean that ordinary consumers can buy Hainan durian. This year's domestic durian production in Hainan is estimated to be only about 50 tons, and these durians will allow growers to give to potential customers and develop the market; On the other hand, tourists need to taste in orchards, which cannot achieve mass production, nor can they "beat" the price of durian in a short period of time.
Prices will fall back when supply is restored
According to relevant data released by China Customs, China's fresh durian imports from January to March 2023 were 1,3 tons, an increase of about 9% year-on-year; the value of goods was 14.154 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%; The average import unit price was 143.38 yuan/kg, down 3.4% year-on-year. The main import source countries are Thailand and Vietnam, of which 2,6 tons are imported from Thailand, accounting for 4% of the total imports; It imported 70,2 tons from Vietnam, accounting for 7% of the total imports. It can be seen that China's durian imports in the first quarter showed a significant growth momentum.
The selling price of a product is inseparable from supply and demand. Retail expert Hu Chuncai pointed out that the high price of durian is related to the end of output in some parts of Thailand, and the production is gradually decreasing, and at the same time, the low price of durian in May stimulates people's desire to consume, so consumers' purchase demand is increasing. "Driven by two factors, the overall selling price is naturally upward."
Shen Lirong, a professor at the Department of Food Science and Nutrition of Zhejiang University, said that the price of agricultural products is mainly determined by the balance of supply and demand in the market, and after the harvest season, the supply decreases, and the price will naturally rise, and the previous price "low-lying" is precisely due to the formation of more supplies at this stage. For the follow-up trend of the durian market, Hu Chuncai believes that as the market supply increases, the price will decrease.
Previously, the analysis of the China Fruit Circulation Association pointed out that after entering May, the supply of durian entered the peak season, the total supply on the market increased, and the consumer demand was also large. At the same time, the increase in the purchase price of the production area will also drive the price increase in the domestic market. After entering July, southern Thai durian began to be marketed in large quantities, and southern durian is slightly inferior to the eastern part in taste and quality, and the price is expected to decline.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Liu Zhuolan Hu Jingrong/Photo by Wen He