Beijing, 6 Jun (ZXS) -- China's foreign trade data for May was released on 7 June. The 5.7% year-on-year growth rate of total import and export value was sharply lower than the 0.5% in April, and exports even fell 4.8% from the same period last year. But analysts believe that the sharp drop in data does not mean that China's foreign trade competitiveness has weakened.
The sharp decline in the growth rate of foreign trade is related to the high base in the same period last year. In May last year, China's imports and exports grew by 5.9%.
The "warm and cold" international market is also one of the reasons. Although the "Barometer of Trade in Goods" report released by the WTO recently raised the global goods trade prosperity index, believing that the global goods trade situation may improve in the second quarter, but from the data of South Korea, known as the "canary" of the global economy, global trade is still difficult to say optimistic.
According to official statistics, South Korea's exports fell 5.15% year-on-year in May, while imports fell 2%. This reflects the fact that the global economic recovery remains faltering and trade growth is dragged down by factors such as high inflation and the escalation of the Ukraine crisis.
Analysts believe that considering the global economic and trade situation, China's current foreign trade performance has been stable.
From the perspective of import and export, on the one hand, the export of key markets and advantageous products remains resilient. For example, in the previous five months, China's exports to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, increased by 5.16% year-on-year, and exports to the EU, the second largest trading partner, increased by 4.2% year-on-year, both significantly higher than the overall level of China's exports in the same period.
According to official data, China's exports of automobiles in the first five months amounted to 5.2667 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 8.124%; The export of labor-intensive products was 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.5%. The "new three things" such as electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells are becoming an important support for China's exports.
On the other hand, imports rose steadily. In the first five months, China's imports increased by 5.0% year-on-year, and in May, imports increased by 5.5% year-on-year. This suggests that imports are steadily expanding as the domestic economy recovers faster.
From the perspective of market entities, the import and export of China's private enterprises in the first five months reached 5.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.13%, accounting for 1.52% of China's total foreign trade value. Among them, the export growth rate of private enterprises reached 8.16% year-on-year.
Private enterprises have always been known for their keen sense of the market and flexible response. The continuous growth of imports and exports of private enterprises reflects the further enhancement of China's foreign trade resilience.
Some analysts pointed out that the high growth of China's foreign trade in April is not abnormal, and if the April data is used to measure the performance of foreign trade in May, it will be biased. In the context of the overall slump in global trade, we should have reasonable expectations for the future trend of China's foreign trade.
Yu Xiangrong, chief economist of Citigroup Greater China, said that there were many one-time factors behind the 4.8% growth rate of China's imports and exports in April, such as the impact of the epidemic in the second half of last year, some orders were not delivered, and the "rush to work" effect after the Spring Festival this year.
Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicted in an interview with China News Agency that considering the release of the effect of the official policy of stabilizing foreign trade, China's foreign trade is expected to achieve 2% growth in dollar terms this year, "which is already a good result." (End)