When Celgene is cold, "no one cares" or a good opportunity for layout?

Author: Cao Lu

Since the second quarter, the three major indexes have fluctuated and fallen, and as of the close of trading on June 6, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index have fallen by 5.1%, 24.6% and 65.8% respectively. As the market continues to adjust, the fund issuance market has also cooled. Choice data shows that compared with the same period last year, the number of new public funds decreased by nearly 23%.

On June 6, Minsheng Bank of Canada Fund announced that one of its FOF products failed to raise funds. Not long ago, on June 5 and May 6, Minsheng Canada Bank Preferred Enterprising One-Year Closed-end Closed-end Equity Fund of Funds (FOF-LOF) and Pengyang Enterprising Pioneer One-Year Holding Period Mixed Continuous Announcement Announcement failed to raise funds. However, the reporter noticed that some fund companies are not afraid of the "cold", and there are still more than 3 new products being issued.

Some public fundraising people said in an interview that the fund issuance market is currently in a state of "good to do and not good to develop", which often corresponds to the stage bottom of the market. Standing at the current point, the operating characteristics of A-shares with small shocks may continue, and in the medium term, we should still maintain an objective attitude to face the market, and for investors who are on the left side and have a long holding period, it is now a better time to enter.

The fund issuance market has cooled

Choice data shows that as of June 6, a total of 5 new funds (only counting initial funds) have been established this year based on the date of fund establishment, with a total issuance share of 512.4252 billion; compared with the same period last year, there are 15 products, and the issuance share has also decreased by 121.426 billion.

Judging from the issuance volume in the past three months, the issuance market is slightly cold. From March to May, 3, 5 and 159 new funds were established respectively, with an average issuance share of 102 million, 108 million and 9 million. The monthly share of issuance decreased by 25.7% from 48.6 billion to 63.1442 billion.

At the same time, not only has the issuance share decreased, but equity funds have also failed to raise funds. For example, Minsheng Bank of Canada Fund issued announcements on June 6 and June 5 respectively that the funds of the two-year holding period hybrid fund (FOF) of Minsheng Canada Bank Excellent Allocation and the Preferred Enterprising One-Year Closed-end Equity Fund (FOF-LOF) failed to be raised. On May 6, Pengyang Enterprising Pioneer One-Year Holding Period Hybrid also announced the failure of the issuance. In other words, in just 3 days, 5 funds have failed to issue one after another.

"Equity funds are really not easy to sell", "Our goal this year is not to be a 'explosive model', but to ensure the establishment" "Of course, equity products are still our development focus, but I am afraid that the market will not be strong," a number of public fund insiders told reporters.

"The performance of the A-share market this year is mainly based on structural markets, and the money-making effect is not strong." A person from a medium-sized fund company told reporters that the frequent adjustment of the market makes it impossible for investors to start, and the enthusiasm to subscribe to funds has also decreased, but perhaps you can understand follow-up investment opportunities from a different perspective.

"The fund issuance market has reached the point where it is 'good to do and not to issue'." A public fund insider in South China told reporters, "From historical experience, the freezing point of fund issuance may often be the market low, but also the buying point of the contrarian layout, and it is easier for new funds to enter the market at a low point to make long-term excess returns."

The so-called "good hair is not good to do, good to do is not good to develop" is a saying circulating in the investment circle, which means that the new hot often means that the market is hot, the valuation is high, and the future investment is difficult; When the new situation is down, it is often more suitable to enter the investment, because the valuation and point are relatively low at this time.

Yan Xiang, an analyst at Huafu Securities, believes that in investment, people often say that they should be greedy when others are afraid and afraid when others are greedy, but the reality is that investors tend to be more afraid when others are afraid and more greedy when others are greedy. It is human nature that fund products are issued at the top of the market, but no one cares at the bottom of the market.

However, the reporter also noted that the issuance market is not without bright spots. For example, on June 6, Quanguo Fund announced that Quanguo Siyuan's three-year holding period hybrid was officially established on June 3, and the initial offering was effectively subscribed by 6,2 households, with an initial offering size of 8.35 billion yuan. This also refreshed the record for the first offering of holding period equity funds this year.

At the same time, there are currently 113 fund products (only counting initial funds) in the issuance stage in the market, of which 50 are bond funds, accounting for more than 28%. There are <> active equity products (including partial equity hybrid and common equity funds).

So, how can we improve the current lack of investor confidence? Quanguo Fund told CBN that professional services are just as important as professional investment research, and the company's investor service team has launched offline publicity and online original content accompaniment in various channels. In his view, "there is only one way to smooth out the volatility of net worth, and that is to use service and companionship to customers through difficult times." Only by going through the cycle can customers obtain reasonable and good returns."

How to look for opportunities in a weak recovery

"This year is talking about recovery, but it doesn't match the intuitive feeling of investors, so everyone feels lost. Including fund sales, investor sentiment is actually sluggish than at the beginning of the year. Su Junjie, general manager of the quantitative and derivatives investment department of Penghua Fund, told reporters that this year's market must pay attention to bottom-line thinking, not a particularly strong recovery, but a very weak recovery.

"Fundamentals have given way to congestion, and the shift from boom trading to rebalancing trading, from momentum trading to reversal trading this year, is an important feature of the market this year." In Su Junjie's view, if you want to do earnings, you must find a direction with relatively low congestion, and if there is an inflection point in this direction, that is, Davis double-click, valuation is also increased, and earnings are also improved.

Yanxiang analyzed in the research report that the current point of stock assets has a very high cost performance, the time and space for the subsequent pullback are relatively limited, and the probability of the market rebound is relatively large, especially for investors who are on the left side and have a long holding period, the current is a better time to enter.

"The market differentiation of A-shares is mainly a game of market expectations for the economy." Qi Teng, director of Hang Seng Qianhai Equity Investment, also had a similar view, he told First Finance and Economics that although some industries with heavy fixed assets and strong manufacturing attributes such as new energy and chemical industry are relatively weak, but with the gradual bottoming out of the macroeconomy, pro-cyclical industries are expected to see improvement, at this time, the new energy sector and semiconductor sector are in the stage of left-hand layout.

"The valuation of the A-share market is in a cost-effective position." Wang Li, a macro strategy researcher at Great Wall Fund, pointed out in an interview that there is also the possibility of a gap in expectations under extremely pessimistic economic and policy expectations, and any policy or economic growth that exceeds expectations may bring a short-term rapid rebound that has been suppressed for too long.

Based on this, Wang Li said that in the future, he will focus on structured industrial allocation and thematic investment opportunities. "According to the itemized data of the year-on-year profit data of industrial enterprises, high-end manufacturing-related sectors can be supported by better industrial policies and monetary policies, and are expected to obtain better profit repair, which is the direction of opportunities in the context of structured policies." He said.

"2023 will be a turning point, and a new upward cycle has begun." Gang Dengfeng, managing director of Quanguo Fund and fund manager of the public offering investment department, told reporters that the current market valuation level has created favorable conditions for income performance in the next three years, and it is likely that we can see the recovery of consumer service scenarios, manufacturing and real estate industry chains, and foreign demand next year.