On Monday, June 5, world oil prices are steadily rising in international trading. At the beginning of the day, the crude of the benchmark Brent on the ICE exchange in London rose by 2.8% to $78.23 per barrel, and the cost of the American brand WTI rose by 2.9% to $73.81 per barrel.
"Prices were supported by the decision of the OPEC+ alliance. The day before, the parties agreed on a new reduction in oil production from next year, which had a certain impact on the market, "Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Aricapital Management Company, explained to RT.
On the evening of June 4, representatives of the countries participating in the OPEC+ deal agreed to reduce total oil production to 1.31 million barrels per day from January 2024 to December 40, 46. As explained in the Russian government, such a measure was approved to ensure the long-term benchmarks of the oil market, as well as maintain its stability and create long-term predictability.
"We see a balance of supply and demand in the world market, including thanks to the decisions made by OPEC+. Today, we are seeing an increase in demand, especially in the summer, due to the growth of air travel. As for the terms of the deal to reduce oil production, they are exceeded, and the conditions for a voluntary reduction in production are also being fulfilled ... Russia is implementing its obligations in full," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said after the meeting.
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Recall that the OPEC+ agreement includes 23 oil-producing countries, including Russia. As part of the deal, the states jointly control the production of raw materials to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market. Such a policy should keep the cost of oil from significant collapses.
Back in October 2022, the parties agreed to reduce the total level of oil production by 2 million barrels per day by the end of 2023. According to the new agreements, in 2024, the production of raw materials is planned to be reduced by another 1.4 million barrels per day.
Moreover, in addition to this official reduction, from July 2023, a number of OPEC+ member states will voluntarily reduce production by another 2.66 million barrels per day. As part of this initiative, Saudi Arabia and Russia are going to reduce production the most - by 1.5 million and 500 thousand barrels per day, respectively, and the remaining volumes will be distributed between Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman and Gabon.
Thus, taking into account all the decisions made after October 2022, the alliance plans to remove about 6.06 million barrels of oil per day from the market. This, in turn, should be the reason for a new round of growth in world prices, experts say.
"For OPEC+ members, the optimal level is the cost of raw materials in the region of $80 per barrel, since it is on the basis of this value that the budget of most countries of the alliance is drawn up. Further developments will largely depend on the dynamics of global fuel demand. It is likely that in 2023 prices will fluctuate in the corridor of $70-90 per barrel. If the quotes suddenly go below $70, then OPEC+ may go for another reduction in production, "suggested Sergey Suverov.
The struggle for price
Meanwhile, according to experts, today, in contrast to the efforts of OPEC+ to increase world oil prices, the actions of the United States are playing. For more than a year, the US authorities have been actively releasing raw materials from their strategic reserves and thereby seeking to increase the supply of hydrocarbons on the market. Thus, the United States wants to curb the rise in oil prices in order to stabilize the situation with gasoline prices within the country.
In 2022, after the start of a special military operation in Ukraine, Washington, in an attempt to put pressure on Moscow, decided to completely abandon the purchase of Russian energy resources. As the White House claimed at the time, the United States could afford to take such a step thanks to the country's strong energy infrastructure. However, the actions of the United States led to a sharp increase in world oil prices, and after a while ordinary Americans faced a record rise in the cost of fuel at gas stations.
"The rise in prices for motor fuel has hit hard the wallets of consumers, who are the electorate. As a result of all these events, the ratings of US President Joe Biden went down sharply, "Yevgeny Kalyanov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, told RT.
According to him, in order to normalize the situation, the American leadership initially turned to the country's largest oil and gas companies with a request to increase oil production, but was refused. Later, the Biden administration tried to convince OPEC countries to increase hydrocarbon production, but the members of the organization also did not agree with Washington's proposal.
As a result, the United States began to actively withdraw oil from its strategic reserves and released almost 198 million barrels in just over a year. Meanwhile, to date, storage facilities have been emptied by more than half, and their occupancy has fallen to its lowest level in the last 40 years.
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- © Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg
Against this background, in the near future, the US leadership plans to complete the pumping of oil from reserves and return to the purchase of raw materials to replenish reserves. However, taking into account the actions of OPEC+, such a decision by Washington risks nullifying all previous efforts of the American authorities in the fight against fuel prices, experts say.
"The United States has remembered its declining strategic reserves and now will probably decide to somehow replenish them. In this case, we are likely to see a smooth but steady growth in oil prices, "said Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets, in a conversation with RT.
A similar point of view is shared by Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund. In addition, according to him, in the second half of 2023, an additional support for oil prices may be provided by the revival of global demand for energy raw materials, primarily due to the growth of consumption in China after the lifting of quarantine restrictions.
"In general, the second half of the year is perceived by players as a period of global economic recovery. In addition, the monetary authorities of the United States announced that they had reached the limit on raising the rate, which means that loans will no longer rise in price, and businesses will have money for development, which usually leads to an increase in oil demand in the world. In this regard, by the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, oil prices may reach $90-95 per barrel, "the interlocutor of RT did not rule out.