China Net Finance on June 6 According to the website of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the China Commodity Index (CBMI) in May 5, which was investigated and released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, was 2023.5%, up 100.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among the sub-indexes, the supply index and inventory index stopped falling and rebounded, while the sales index continued to fall. From the perspective of the change of this month's index, this month's index stopped falling and rebounded, mainly caused by the supply index and inventory index representing the supply side to stop falling and rebounding, and the sales index continued to fall, especially the supply index was higher than the sales index for 0 consecutive months, showing that demand contraction continued to be faster than supply, supply and demand contradictions have emerged, the current domestic commodity market oversupply pressure continues to appear, commodity inventories are still backlogged. Looking forward to June, the domestic commodity market will be in a situation of internal and external difficulties, the overall operating pressure will increase, especially the current domestic economy is still in a weak recovery state, the private economy is still weak, the endogenous driving force of economic recovery is still insufficient, China's foreign trade exports may also face greater uncertainty. From the perspective of foreign environment, the current global economic recovery is still facing the constraints of the decline in the manufacturing industry, which also increases the uncertainty of the global economic recovery. In addition, in June, with the arrival of high temperature in the north and rainy season in the south, the impact of weather on project construction will gradually increase, which will have a significant impact on demand; The manufacturing order index continued to fall slightly, reflecting that the problem of market demand contraction is still prominent, and market demand may face greater downward pressure. If commodity output is still released at a high level, the contradiction between market supply and demand will remain large. On the whole, the domestic commodity market in June will show insufficient demand in the off-season, a decline in high supply, limited domestic policy boost, and still high external risks, and commodity prices will remain in a weak consolidation stage, and the prices of some commodities have certain downside.
The supply of goods continues to increase. In May 2023, the commodity supply index was still in a rising channel, at 5.102%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing that with the continuous repair of commodity prices, the operating rate of production enterprises has gradually recovered, the overall production of commodities has increased, and the overall supply of domestic commodities is still growing, but in the context of sluggish demand, the supply side does not expect much from the future market, so the supply growth is limited. From the perspective of major commodities, in addition to the decline in steel supply this month, other varieties showed an increase trend, especially iron ore supply stopped falling and rebounded. Iron ore supply increased by 6.2% this month from the previous month; The supply of coal, refined oil and chemical products increased by 7.5%, 9.4% and 4.2% respectively over the previous month, and the growth rate accelerated by 6.1, 3.2 and 0.0 percentage points respectively over the previous month; the supply of non-ferrous metals and chemicals increased by 9.2% and 0.0% respectively over the previous month. The growth rate slowed down by 8.0 and 3.0 percentage points respectively from the previous month; this month due to the increase in maintenance and production reduction enterprises, the overall production capacity of the steel industry in the early stage was insufficient, resulting in a continued decline in supply, but with the gradual recovery of profits, the enthusiasm of enterprises to produce increased, resulting in a narrowing of this month's supply decline, this month's steel supply decreased by 8.0% from the previous month, the decline was 7.0 percentage points narrower than the previous month.
Pressure on commodity sales has increased. In May 2023, the commodity sales index was 5.99%. From the perspective of the change of sales index, after the sales volume showed a growth trend for three consecutive months, it fell back this month, on the one hand, indicating that the market demand weakened this month, especially with the volatile correction of commodity prices, the market panic intensified, the procurement of terminal enterprises became more cautious, the enthusiasm of market orders was significantly reduced, the transaction was significantly weakened, and the pressure on the order organization of commodity production and supply enterprises increased; On the other hand, we believe that it is also related to the high base in the early stage, especially some commodities are falling after sustained high growth, and the sales volume of non-ferrous metals, chemicals and automobiles this month is still showing an upward trend, and it remains to be seen whether the market demand in the later period will weaken comprehensively with the emergence of high temperature and rain in summer. Among the main commodities, the sales volume of non-ferrous metals, chemicals and automobiles continued to grow, increasing by 9.2%, 1.2% and 4.3% respectively over the previous month, and the growth rate was 3.1, 2.0 and 9.2 percentage points faster than the previous month; the sales volume of refined oil products this month increased by 4.1% from the previous month, and the growth rate slowed down by 8.1 percentage points from the previous month; the sales volume of iron ore this month turned from rising to falling, down 1.0% from the previous month; Steel and coal sales continued to decline, falling by 7.2% and 4.1% respectively from the previous month, and the decline was 5.0 and 5.0 percentage points higher than the previous month.
Commodity inventories stopped falling and rebounded. In May 2023, the commodity inventory index stopped falling and rose to 5.100%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall commodity inventory increased this month under the condition of two consecutive months of decrease, indicating that due to the overall recovery of the supply side, but the terminal demand weakened significantly, commodity inventories were overstocked again, and inventory pressure began to increase. From the perspective of major commodity inventories, steel and iron ore inventories continued to decrease, but the decline narrowed, coal and refined oil inventories continued to increase, and the growth rate accelerated, non-ferrous metals, chemicals and automobile inventories were boosted by demand, although inventories continued to increase, but the growth rate slowed down. This month's coal and refined oil inventories increased by 4.4% and 8.3% respectively from the previous month, accelerating the growth rate by 1.0 and 7.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month; non-ferrous metals, chemicals and automobile inventories increased by 5.0%, 7.1% and 9.1% respectively from the previous month, slowing down by 0.1, 2.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month; steel and iron ore inventories decreased by 8.1% and 8.1% respectively from the previous month, and the decline was 9.0 and 8.1 percentage points narrower than the previous month.