In June, the "first set of housing loan interest rate policy dynamic adjustment mechanism" will usher in a new phase of evaluation. At present, there is some debate in the market - are the first home loan interest rates in some cities about to rise? In which cities will mortgage interest rates fall again? Will lower interest rates trigger hot money to flow into the property market? In this regard, it is necessary to rationally analyze and clarify the source, and the first home interest rate adjustment is "hot and cold", and the market does not need to panic.
The optimization and adjustment of the first home interest rate is related to the financial cost of home buyers. In order to better meet rigid demand and improve consumer spending capacity, since last year, the first home interest rate has undergone many optimizations and adjustments. In May 2022, the lower limit of the interest rate for the first home was lowered, from the previous "LPR of more than 5 years" to "LPR of more than 5 years minus 5 basis points", and the second home remained unchanged for the time being. In September 20, the differentiated housing credit policy will be adjusted in stages, and eligible city governments can independently decide to maintain, reduce or cancel the lower limit of the interest rate for newly issued local first homes by the end of 2022. In December 9, the "Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism for the First Housing Loan Interest Rate Policy" was established.
The dynamic adjustment mechanism of the first set of housing loan interest rate policy "tube heat and tube cold", which evaluates the development of the real estate market in various cities on a quarterly basis, is two-way and dynamic, rather than mechanical and rigid. First, the mechanism is "cooled". According to the policy, if the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in a city decreases for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year, the city can maintain, reduce or cancel the local first home interest rate floor in stages. As of the end of March, a total of 3 cities met the above conditions, of which 3 cities had lowered the floor of the first home interest rate and 96 cities had eliminated the first home interest rate floor. Driven by this, the interest rate of newly issued personal housing loans nationwide in March this year fell by 83.12 percentage points year-on-year. Secondly, the mechanism "heat control". According to the policy, if a city's house prices show signs of a trend increase, the city will withdraw from the support policy in time and resume the implementation of the national unified lower limit of the first home interest rate.
However, two-way and dynamic does not mean fast change and large variables, on the contrary, the "dynamic adjustment mechanism of the first set of housing loan interest rate policy" has stability. Two preconditions for a lower interest rate cannot be ignored. First, house prices fell for no less than 3 months, and second, they fell month-on-month and year-on-year. In other words, it is not enough for housing prices in a certain city to fluctuate, there must be a trend change. Therefore, although the mechanism assesses house price changes on a quarterly basis, most cities will not trigger conditions for interest rate adjustments, and the conditions will take much longer than the evaluation cycle.
At present, buyers need stable expectations, and one of the important contents of stable expectations is to optimize and adjust mortgage interest rates, especially the first home interest rate, scientifically and reasonably according to urban policies, to avoid "big ups and downs". Recently, the interest rate of the first home has shown a trend of "stable and slightly decreasing", and the lending speed of commercial banks has also continued to increase. Third-party data show that the average interest rate of the first set of mainstream housing loans in Shell 4 Cities in April and May was 5.4% and 01.4%, both slightly down 0 BP from the previous month.
Next, we must firmly position "houses are for living, not for speculation" and form a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Among them, the regulatory authorities should focus on the goals of stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations, pay close attention to changes in the real estate financial situation, and cooperate with local governments to fulfill their territorial responsibilities to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers; Under the premise of "controllable risks", financial institutions can prudently carry out innovation around flexible repayment of housing loans, and provide more accurate and efficient housing financial services for the majority of home buyers, especially new citizens. (Economic Daily, Guo Ziyuan)