On Thursday, June 1, the Russian currency shows mixed dynamics on the Moscow Exchange. During the opening of trading, the dollar fell by 0.11% to 81.02 rubles, and the yuan exchange rate by 0.04% to 11.37 rubles. At the same time, the euro exchange rate, on the contrary, rose by 0.07% to 86.58 rubles.

In the coming month, one of the determining factors for the national currency will be the dynamics of oil prices, experts believe. Today, the raw materials of the benchmark Brent brand on the world market are trading near $73 per barrel, although in mid-spring the value exceeded $87. Analysts attribute the decline in quotations to growing investor concerns about global fuel consumption.

"Oil prices fell due to a weaker-than-expected recovery in China's economy after the lifting of quarantine restrictions. In addition, other major consumers of raw materials are also experiencing economic problems, which jeopardizes the long-term prospects for demand for raw materials in the world, "Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, explained to RT.

According to him, a further decline in oil prices could lead to a weakening of the ruble. However, the current state of affairs in the international energy market may still change against the backdrop of the actions of the states participating in the OPEC+ agreement. This point of view was expressed in an interview with RT by Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

"June will begin with an event important for the ruble and the oil market - the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna, which will be held this Sunday. The decisions taken at the end of the meeting will be recouped in the future in commodity quotes and the exchange rate of the Russian currency, "Milchakova explained.

The OPEC+ association includes 23 oil-producing countries, including Russia. As part of the deal, the states jointly control the production of raw materials to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market. Such a policy should keep the cost of oil from significant collapses.

Since May, against the backdrop of problems with global fuel consumption, the countries of the alliance began to reduce the production of raw materials by a total of 3.66 million barrels per day to maintain prices. Meanwhile, in the current conditions, the parties may approve an additional reduction in production following the results of the upcoming meeting, which should play in favor of the rise in oil prices and the strengthening of the ruble. This opinion was shared with RT by BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov.

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According to the expert, additional support for the ruble can be provided by the initiatives of the Russian authorities in the financial sector. So, from June 1, on behalf of President Vladimir Putin, the country sets a limit of $ 1 billion per month for the purchase of foreign currency when foreign investors withdraw from Russian assets.

The country's leadership thought about introducing such a measure back in April, after the British company Shell exchanged and withdrew from Russia revenue of $ 1,2 billion from the sale of a stake in the Sakhalin-2 project. This led to a temporary jump in demand for foreign currency and, as a result, a weakening of the ruble.

"The limit will be the same, of course. The point is that there should be no influence on the foreign exchange market. That is, this means that, relatively speaking, the commission allowed to sell the business for such and such a price, but you can buy currency for a certain period so as not to violate the limit, "explained Alexei Moiseev, Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia, earlier.

With an eye on the stakes

In addition, the attention of market participants will be focused on the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Natalia Milchakova believes. So, on June 9, the regulator's management is going to hold the next meeting, where it will decide on the key rate.

"Most likely, the rate will be kept at the current level of 7.5% per annum. At the same time, the reaction of the ruble to this decision may depend on what forecast the Central Bank will make regarding the prospects of the Russian economy for the second half of this year, "the interlocutor of RT suggested.

In addition, in her opinion, investors will closely monitor the actions of the monetary authorities of the United States and Europe. As expected, in mid-June, the United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will also have to make decisions regarding their interest rates. An increase in these indicators may lead to a weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro, while maintaining values at current levels, on the contrary, can strengthen the Russian currency against the American and European ones.

"It is also worth noting that the geopolitical background will also play a certain role in June. In general, we expect that in the coming month the dollar exchange rate may fluctuate within 79-84 rubles, and the value of the euro in the range of 84-89 rubles, "added Natalia Milchakova.

A similar assessment is shared by Spartak Sobolev, head of the investment strategy research department at Alfa-Forex. At the same time, in a conversation with RT, the specialist did not rule out that the value of the dollar at some point may decrease to 76 rubles, but then it is able to return to the level of 83-84 rubles, while the euro exchange rate will remain stable in the range of 83-90 rubles. The yuan exchange rate, in his opinion, will remain in the corridor of 10.9-12 rubles. Almost the same forecast was made by Vladislav Antonov.

"The yuan in the Russian foreign exchange market is now quite strong. The demand for it is growing due to an increase in the number of financial instruments in yuan available to retail investors, as well as an increase in the share of the yuan in foreign economic settlements and transactions in the foreign exchange market. So for the Chinese currency, you can designate a trading range of 10.6-12 rubles, "Antonov concluded.