S&P believes that the pension reform does not balance the accounts and warns of future damage to the Spanish 'rating'

A leading agency in the solvency rating of countries such as the American Standard & Poor's joins the broad chorus of institutions that do not see the accounts of the set of pension reforms approved by this Government squared, as this newspaper has been able to confirm.

It is already worrying that an international institution of the level of S&P coincides with the criticism of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) and the Bank of Spain that the government reform generated

It was more deficit instead of containing it, but his case presents a complication: the impact on the

, in the future solvency rating of the country, which is what marks the cost of financing the economy as a whole.

S&P already published an international analysis last January on the effect of pensions and health spending on the solvency of states called

. But it still did not include the reform approved by the Council of Ministers on March 16. Consulted by EL MUNDO one of the authors of that report, the director of sovereign debt in Europe of S & P

makes this analysis of the decree: "In our opinion,

by revenue measures taken in the context of the reform, such as the new intergenerational equity mechanism'.

And in addition to being insufficient, the decree has another effect. "In addition, with these changes, the reform transfers part of the adjustment of the system to the employer and the employee by increasing the contributory burden [social contributions],

That is, there is not enough adjustment and the one that is made, relies so much on raising contributions that it threatens employment and the growth of companies.

OR LESS SPENDING, OR ACCELERATING ADJUSTMENT

What will happen then? For this veteran of the US agency and with experience in the European Commission and the European Investment Bank, what will be coming are more adjustment measures that will have to be taken by subsequent governments and not only in Spain. 'In general,

or alternatively, an acceleration of budgetary consolidation to improve the prospects for the sustainability of public finances'.

And if it is not done, Spain will have more difficulties in reaching a

and a risk premium like that of other euro economies. "Currently, the persistent and high structural deficit of the Social Security administrations, also taking into account State transfers, is a drag on Spain's budgetary position and its sovereign rating," Mrsnik said.

The S&P report shows that, in a scenario without further reforms, Spain's solvency rating will fall from the current A – less than notable and steps away from the outstanding triple A – to a

The head of European sovereign debt of S & P does not see, after seeing the decree, great changes in that scenario and is worrying: he calculates that

and the aforementioned

of triple b which will be lower than, for example, the A that Portugal or Ireland may keep. However, this January report is a warning to sailors also for Italy or France, although the latter has undertaken a pension reform praised for example by Klaas Knot, governor of the central bank of the Netherlands and influential member of the ECB in statements to this newspaper. "It's absolutely positive, exactly the kind of reforms that all member states need to undertake."

According to S&P, "in the absence of policy measures to cut age-related spending, average general government net debt will rise to 102% of GDP in advanced economies." That on average, because Spain will register, according to its simulations and hypotheses, the aforementioned debt greater than 170%.

S&P cannot be framed, by the way, in the institutional group to which the Minister of Inclusion,

n a rally in Palma de Mallorca last Monday, the minister sees the banks and insurers behind the analyses that want more adjustment in the system: "It is to apply cuts so that citizens choose to acquire pension funds or deposits, which is what banks and insurance companies want." The minister is suspicious of BBVAResearch or Mapfre or the latest harsh report of the Institute of Economic Studies linked to CEOE, but S & P is not in that circuit and also says it relies on documents from the Government itself. "What we can see from the government's long-term pension spending forecasts – for example in consecutive Stability Programmes 2022 and 2023 – is

».

In an election year it is unfortunately impossible to apply mathematics with serenity, but the big problem is still there and remains for another legislature, once again.

FOR FITCH IT IS "PREMATURE"

The Fitch agency has kept Spain's solvency rating unchanged at A-, despite the certain decrease in the deficit and debt registered with the increase in revenue, because "Spain maintains high levels of debt, high structural unemployment and low labor productivity that limit its growth potential."

As for the pension reform, the government has convinced the agency that it should not pronounce yet, although what it points out is not positive. "It is still too early to assess its economic and fiscal impact, given that

that pensions are indexed to the Consumer Price Index"