After falling by 4,8000 units in April, second-hand housing in Beijing continued to decline in May. Data from institutions show that up to now, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing in May is less than 5,5 sets, and the month-on-month transaction decline has become a foregone conclusion. Not only that, including Hepingli, Desheng and other hot spots, the listing volume has risen sharply, but the trading volume has fallen to the bottom. The head brokerage company confirmed that the transaction volume of the Hepingli area fell from 60 or 70 sets in the past month to less than 10 sets this month, and some small owners failed to ship the price reduction of 90,<> yuan in two months.
From 60, 70 sets to less than 10 sets
"This month is worse than April, and the waist chop is not enough to describe it." He Bin is the head of Heping Street Precinct, a leading intermediary agency in Beijing, where he has been serving for 4 years. In his impression, in May after the Xiaoyang Spring in the first half of each year, the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market will indeed have a correction, but the average monthly transaction volume of the company's stores in the entire large area will generally not be less than 14 or 5 sets, but this month, so far it has not reached double digits.
This cooling originated in mid-March, and in He Bin's intuitive feelings, it was first a sharp decrease in viewing, and then it was transmitted to the transaction end in less than a week. "We intuitively feel that in the second half of March this year, the store deposit contract has declined very obviously, but because of the particularity of second-hand housing transactions, the cooling feeling of the market is not so obvious."
After entering the "May Day", the cooling of the market came more violently. "Let's take the most intuitive example, our entire store 'May Day' is indeed closed, but two people are left on duty or in charge of second-hand houses, and the rest of the agents go to show the new houses." The bleak second-hand housing market has made making channels for new houses the most important task for He Bin and his colleagues at the moment.
"Although the opponents are more than us, the average output per store is similar." Although it is a nominal competition, because of the particularity of real estate transactions, it is common for various institutions to communicate with each other, whether it is housing information or market trends.
However, from the data of online signing, the decline is not as obvious as the first-line brokers. According to data from the Zhuge Data Research Center, as of May 5, a total of 24,9599 second-hand residential units in Beijing were transacted, down 4.11% from the same period in April and 8.3% from the same period in March.
Wang Xiaochang, chief analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center, said that generally there will be a seasonal decline in market transactions in April and May every year. But according to the current transaction data, It is expected that the overall transaction scale of the whole month in May this year will be 4,5 sets, which is not as good as the transaction level in 5 and 1 during the epidemic, which also shows that the recovery speed at the beginning of the year has not continued, and the transaction speed of second-hand houses has slowed down, on the one hand, due to the decline in buyers' income expectations, the confidence to enter the market is insufficient; on the other hand, the regulation of brokerage companies was introduced on May 2, encouraging the reform of intermediary fee charging standards and encouraging buyers and sellers to pay intermediary fees together, which increased the wait-and-see mood of buyers.
Inventories have increased significantly
Different from the coldness during the severe epidemic, after talking with a group of owners or buyers, He Bin gave a judgment on the current market that "if you want to buy or not, if you want to sell and can't sell".
Tang Liang is He Bin's old owner, and eight years ago bought a small two-bedroom apartment in Minwangyuan from He Bin for his children's schooling. Since his son planned to study abroad in the middle school entrance examination, Tang Liang was ready to deal with the "old and broken" in his hand in advance. But this plan has been stranded for the past six months because the house in hand cannot be sold at the right price.
"Mr. Tang's quotation is normal, the transaction is not very smooth, one is that there are too many listings of the same type in the community, and other listings have reduced the price because of such and such defects, and the other is that Mr. Tang's own children are still in school, and there needs to be a relatively long after-sales and lease cycle, and two factors affect the transaction." If he can't sell the house in his hand, Tang Liang naturally can't buy a new one. "Now it's different from the past, I can't see the market clearly, and if I can't sell this set in my hand, I don't dare to book and replace it first."
Unlike Tang Liang, what worries He Bin and his peers is the "freewheeling" offer of small owners. "For example, there is a one-story double south small two-bedroom in the north of Ditan , the decoration is indeed very good, the average price of this apartment type before was about 750.780 million to 880.90 million yuan, but the owner must be listed to <>.<> million + when he first listed." In He Bin's view, unrealistic quotations and then price reductions are not conducive to transactions, and are more likely to cause buyers to wait and see. "Now this house has dropped by <>,<> yuan in a month, and it still hasn't been sold."
It is precisely because of this situation of "dare not buy if you want to buy, and can't sell if you want to sell" that the inventory in He Bin's area continues to rise. "We estimate that the whole addition with another company is about 700 units, and this figure is less than 1 units in January this year, which is almost doubled."
This statement was also recognized by Yan Chong, a broker in the Financial Street area. According to Yan Chong, in fact, the number of listings has not increased much compared with the same period of previous years, and the most important thing is that it has slowed down, resulting in a significant increase in inventory. "The prices of recently transacted listings have dropped by 2%-5% compared to the February listings, and those that have not been reduced are not easy to sell."
At present, the largest intermediary company in Beijing, Lianjia, can sell less than 12,14 sets of second-hand houses in front of Taiwan, but people familiar with the matter revealed that the actual back-end inventory has exceeded 50,<> sets, and from the ratio of digestion to listing speed, the pace of digestion of the market has slowed down by <>% compared with the peak two months ago.
Stampede is not reached
It is not only the sharp decline in trading volume and the high inventory, what makes He Bin and the brokers in his area most worried is the centralized listing of some communities in his area.
"We are a district where Dongcheng and Chaoyang meet, basically sold on both sides, the earliest was sold from Chaoyang to change Dongcheng to go to school, but recently in this small period of half a year, a large number of Dongcheng owners began to list."
Taking Ditan Beili, where He Bin's store sold 2 sets in February, as an example, the number of listings in this community in the past was about 3 sets, of which "sincerity selling" accounted for about 10%, and now the number of listings exceeds 40 sets in just 3 months.
The same situation is happening in other "old and dilapidated" communities in the Hepingli area. According to the Lianjia App, the top 3 communities in the Hepingli Hot Search Community List are Hepingli District 20, Hepingli District 36 and Minwangyuan, with more than <> sets of listings, and the listing volume of Hepingli District <> and Minwangyuan has reached <> sets.
Although the chemical compound across the street from Ditan Beili is a typical "old and dilapidated" community, it is favored by buyers in this area because of its good property management and sufficient parking spaces. "The 95-square-meter three-bedroom bureau chief building has not produced one in this community in the past year, but it has been coming out this year, and now there are two sets hanging at the same time."
For such a large-scale centralized listing and the high inventory in the area, whether it means that the node of "old and broken" stampede shipment has arrived, first-line brokers including He Bin do not agree.
"It's too early to say, old and broken, old and broken. With complete supporting facilities and convenient transportation, it is still attractive to office workers and children when it comes to a community with good property. But He Bin also admitted that from the current trend, the downward trend to June is already "certain", and how the future depends on how the policy goes.
A senior analyst in the industry told the Beijing Business Daily reporter that affected by the dematerialization factor, the supply of second-hand housing in Beijing has gradually increased, but the current market situation cannot be said to be "oversupply", and buyers in the buyer's market have a higher "screening right" and take longer to compare. The premise of stampede shipments is still reflected in house prices, the overall increase in supply, house prices continue to fall, and it has not yet reached the level of stampede.
In Wang Xiaochang's view, with the introduction of the tax refund policy and the liberalization of epidemic prevention and control, the number of listings has risen this year, and it coincides with the promotion of the new year, some parents have begun to prepare for their children's schooling. But without the blessing of the school district, the "old and broken" will face the pressure of a long transaction cycle.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Wang Yinhao