Pension reform: will the system still remain in the red?

Barthélémy Philippe// Photo credits: Christophe ARCHAMBAULT / AFP 12:08 p.m., May 25, 2023

Very bad news for the government. According to a report by the Court of Auditors made public on Wednesday, the pension reform will not be enough to balance the accounts of the old-age branch of health insurance, the one that manages the pensions of the general scheme, by 2030. However, the balance of the system was the stated objective of this much-maligned text.

Smaller savings

According to the Court of Auditors, the deficit of the pension system will still reach four billion euros in 2030. The postponement of the retirement age and the extension of the contribution period will therefore generate less savings than expected.

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The government was aiming for 13 billion euros. It will be almost half as much, only seven billion euros according to the Court of Auditors. "There have been more social measures than expected. But beyond that, there is an issue that is that of inflation, which has quite significant effects on retirement pensions. They are indexed to inflation. Indeed, it changes a little the dynamic on the pension deficit, "analyzes the economist Matthieu Plane at the microphone of Europe 1.

A deficit that could exceed four billion euros

The other reason for concern lies in the Court of Auditors' estimate, which incorporates the government's growth and unemployment assumptions for 2030 by judging them to be particularly optimistic.

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Despite the reform, the pension deficit could therefore exceed four billion euros.