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Vinicius Mendonca / AP

According to a study, the economic costs of the El Niño weather phenomenon are in the trillions of euros worldwide. For their study, published in the journal Science, U.S. scientists not only looked at the direct losses caused by weather extremes such as floods and droughts associated with El Niño. In addition, Christopher Callahan and Justin Mankin from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire, also calculated the impact of El Niño on economic growth and income of the people affected.

"El Niño", the Christ Child – this is what Peruvian fishermen called a climate phenomenon that occurs at irregular intervals every few years in the Pacific and whose effects were often noticed there during the Christmas season. At the same time, weather conditions are shifting worldwide due to changes in air and ocean currents.

More weather extremes expected worldwide

More flooding is expected in parts of Africa and South America, while droughts and forest fires are becoming more frequent in Southeast Asia and eastern Australia. For late summer 2023, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently predicted an occurrence of El Niño with a probability of 80 percent.

"The total price for such events has never been fully quantified," Callahan is quoted as saying in a Dartmouth statement. "You have to add up all the reduced growth in the aftermath, not just when the event happens."

Callahan and Mankin analyzed the development of gross domestic product per capita for numerous countries in the years 1960 to 2019 and compared this with the occurrence of El Niño in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998.

KIM/DPA